Intrinsic value of WageWorks - WAGE

Previous Close

$36.87

  Intrinsic Value

$209.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+469%

Previous close

$36.87

 
Intrinsic value

$209.67

 
Up/down potential

+469%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of WAGE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.20
  27.68
  25.41
  23.37
  21.53
  19.88
  18.39
  17.05
  15.85
  14.76
  13.79
  12.91
  12.12
  11.41
  10.76
  10.19
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
Revenue, $m
  475
  606
  760
  938
  1,140
  1,367
  1,618
  1,894
  2,194
  2,518
  2,865
  3,235
  3,627
  4,041
  4,476
  4,932
  5,409
  5,907
  6,425
  6,965
  7,527
  8,111
  8,718
  9,348
  10,003
  10,685
  11,393
  12,129
  12,896
  13,694
Variable operating expenses, $m
  403
  502
  617
  750
  901
  1,071
  1,259
  1,466
  1,691
  1,934
  2,146
  2,423
  2,717
  3,027
  3,353
  3,694
  4,051
  4,424
  4,813
  5,217
  5,638
  6,075
  6,530
  7,002
  7,493
  8,003
  8,534
  9,086
  9,660
  10,257
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  403
  502
  617
  750
  901
  1,071
  1,259
  1,466
  1,691
  1,934
  2,146
  2,423
  2,717
  3,027
  3,353
  3,694
  4,051
  4,424
  4,813
  5,217
  5,638
  6,075
  6,530
  7,002
  7,493
  8,003
  8,534
  9,086
  9,660
  10,257
Operating income, $m
  72
  105
  143
  188
  239
  296
  359
  428
  503
  585
  719
  812
  910
  1,014
  1,123
  1,238
  1,357
  1,482
  1,612
  1,748
  1,889
  2,035
  2,188
  2,346
  2,510
  2,681
  2,859
  3,044
  3,236
  3,436
EBITDA, $m
  129
  165
  207
  255
  310
  372
  440
  515
  597
  685
  779
  880
  987
  1,099
  1,217
  1,341
  1,471
  1,607
  1,748
  1,895
  2,047
  2,206
  2,371
  2,543
  2,721
  2,906
  3,099
  3,299
  3,508
  3,725
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  13
  29
  47
  68
  93
  121
  152
  187
  225
  267
  311
  359
  411
  465
  522
  582
  645
  711
  780
  852
  927
  1,004
  1,085
  1,169
  1,256
  1,347
  1,441
  1,539
  1,641
  1,747
Earnings before tax, $m
  58
  76
  97
  120
  146
  175
  207
  241
  278
  318
  408
  452
  500
  549
  601
  655
  712
  771
  832
  896
  962
  1,031
  1,102
  1,177
  1,254
  1,334
  1,417
  1,504
  1,595
  1,689
Tax expense, $m
  16
  21
  26
  32
  39
  47
  56
  65
  75
  86
  110
  122
  135
  148
  162
  177
  192
  208
  225
  242
  260
  278
  298
  318
  339
  360
  383
  406
  431
  456
Net income, $m
  43
  56
  71
  87
  107
  128
  151
  176
  203
  232
  298
  330
  365
  401
  439
  478
  520
  563
  607
  654
  702
  753
  805
  859
  915
  974
  1,035
  1,098
  1,164
  1,233

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,746
  2,229
  2,795
  3,449
  4,191
  5,025
  5,949
  6,963
  8,067
  9,258
  10,534
  11,894
  13,335
  14,856
  16,455
  18,132
  19,885
  21,715
  23,622
  25,607
  27,672
  29,819
  32,050
  34,368
  36,778
  39,282
  41,885
  44,593
  47,411
  50,345
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,746
  2,229
  2,795
  3,449
  4,191
  5,025
  5,949
  6,963
  8,067
  9,258
  10,534
  11,894
  13,335
  14,856
  16,455
  18,132
  19,885
  21,715
  23,622
  25,607
  27,672
  29,819
  32,050
  34,368
  36,778
  39,282
  41,885
  44,593
  47,411
  50,345
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
Average production assets, $m
  300
  383
  481
  593
  721
  864
  1,023
  1,197
  1,387
  1,591
  1,811
  2,045
  2,292
  2,554
  2,829
  3,117
  3,418
  3,733
  4,061
  4,402
  4,757
  5,126
  5,510
  5,908
  6,322
  6,753
  7,200
  7,666
  8,150
  8,654
Working capital, $m
  -735
  -939
  -1,177
  -1,452
  -1,765
  -2,116
  -2,505
  -2,932
  -3,397
  -3,898
  -4,435
  -5,008
  -5,615
  -6,255
  -6,929
  -7,635
  -8,373
  -9,143
  -9,946
  -10,782
  -11,652
  -12,555
  -13,495
  -14,471
  -15,485
  -16,540
  -17,636
  -18,776
  -19,963
  -21,198
Total debt, $m
  530
  867
  1,262
  1,717
  2,235
  2,816
  3,460
  4,167
  4,936
  5,766
  6,656
  7,604
  8,608
  9,668
  10,783
  11,951
  13,174
  14,449
  15,778
  17,162
  18,601
  20,097
  21,652
  23,268
  24,948
  26,693
  28,508
  30,395
  32,359
  34,404
Total liabilities, $m
  1,217
  1,554
  1,948
  2,404
  2,921
  3,502
  4,146
  4,853
  5,623
  6,453
  7,342
  8,290
  9,295
  10,355
  11,469
  12,638
  13,860
  15,135
  16,465
  17,848
  19,288
  20,784
  22,339
  23,955
  25,634
  27,379
  29,194
  31,082
  33,046
  35,090
Total equity, $m
  529
  675
  847
  1,045
  1,270
  1,522
  1,803
  2,110
  2,444
  2,805
  3,192
  3,604
  4,041
  4,501
  4,986
  5,494
  6,025
  6,580
  7,158
  7,759
  8,385
  9,035
  9,711
  10,414
  11,144
  11,902
  12,691
  13,512
  14,366
  15,254
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,746
  2,229
  2,795
  3,449
  4,191
  5,024
  5,949
  6,963
  8,067
  9,258
  10,534
  11,894
  13,336
  14,856
  16,455
  18,132
  19,885
  21,715
  23,623
  25,607
  27,673
  29,819
  32,050
  34,369
  36,778
  39,281
  41,885
  44,594
  47,412
  50,344
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.000
  1.280
  1.490
  1.640
  1.760
  1.850
  1.920
  1.980
  2.020
  2.060
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
  2.150
  2.160
  2.180
  2.190
  2.200
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.220
  2.230
  2.230
  2.240
  2.240
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  56
  71
  87
  107
  128
  151
  176
  203
  232
  298
  330
  365
  401
  439
  478
  520
  563
  607
  654
  702
  753
  805
  859
  915
  974
  1,035
  1,098
  1,164
  1,233
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  94
  100
  60
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  124
  135
  147
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
  225
  240
  256
  272
  288
Funds from operations, $m
  100
  116
  134
  155
  178
  204
  232
  263
  297
  333
  358
  398
  441
  486
  533
  582
  634
  687
  743
  801
  861
  923
  988
  1,056
  1,126
  1,199
  1,275
  1,354
  1,436
  1,521
Change in working capital, $m
  -171
  -203
  -239
  -275
  -313
  -351
  -389
  -427
  -465
  -501
  -537
  -573
  -607
  -640
  -673
  -706
  -738
  -771
  -803
  -836
  -869
  -904
  -939
  -976
  -1,014
  -1,054
  -1,096
  -1,140
  -1,186
  -1,235
Cash from operations, $m
  270
  319
  372
  430
  491
  555
  621
  690
  761
  834
  895
  971
  1,048
  1,126
  1,206
  1,288
  1,372
  1,458
  1,546
  1,637
  1,730
  1,827
  1,928
  2,032
  2,140
  2,253
  2,371
  2,494
  2,622
  2,756
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -104
  -114
  -124
  -135
  -147
  -159
  -171
  -184
  -197
  -211
  -225
  -240
  -256
  -272
New CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -83
  -97
  -112
  -128
  -143
  -159
  -174
  -190
  -205
  -219
  -234
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -288
  -301
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -414
  -430
  -448
  -466
  -484
  -504
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -77
  -93
  -110
  -128
  -148
  -167
  -188
  -208
  -230
  -251
  -272
  -294
  -316
  -337
  -360
  -382
  -405
  -429
  -452
  -476
  -502
  -528
  -555
  -583
  -611
  -641
  -673
  -706
  -740
  -776
Free cash flow, $m
  194
  226
  262
  301
  343
  387
  434
  482
  532
  583
  623
  677
  732
  789
  846
  906
  967
  1,029
  1,094
  1,160
  1,229
  1,300
  1,373
  1,450
  1,529
  1,612
  1,698
  1,788
  1,882
  1,981
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  282
  337
  395
  455
  518
  581
  644
  707
  769
  830
  890
  948
  1,005
  1,060
  1,115
  1,169
  1,222
  1,275
  1,329
  1,384
  1,439
  1,496
  1,555
  1,616
  1,679
  1,745
  1,815
  1,888
  1,964
  2,045
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  80
  91
  101
  110
  118
  125
  129
  131
  131
  129
  89
  82
  72
  60
  46
  30
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  362
  428
  496
  565
  636
  706
  773
  838
  900
  959
  979
  1,030
  1,077
  1,120
  1,161
  1,199
  1,234
  1,275
  1,329
  1,384
  1,439
  1,496
  1,555
  1,616
  1,679
  1,745
  1,815
  1,888
  1,964
  2,045
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  555
  654
  758
  867
  979
  1,093
  1,207
  1,320
  1,432
  1,542
  1,602
  1,706
  1,809
  1,909
  2,007
  2,104
  2,200
  2,305
  2,423
  2,544
  2,668
  2,796
  2,928
  3,066
  3,209
  3,358
  3,513
  3,676
  3,846
  4,025
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -122
  -146
  -172
  -198
  -225
  -252
  -280
  -307
  -334
  -361
  -387
  -412
  -437
  -461
  -485
  -508
  -531
  -554
  -578
  -602
  -626
  -650
  -676
  -702
  -730
  -759
  -789
  -821
  -854
  -889
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  434
  507
  587
  669
  754
  841
  927
  1,013
  1,098
  1,181
  1,215
  1,294
  1,372
  1,448
  1,522
  1,596
  1,669
  1,750
  1,845
  1,942
  2,042
  2,145
  2,252
  2,363
  2,479
  2,599
  2,724
  2,855
  2,993
  3,136
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  416
  464
  510
  551
  585
  610
  626
  633
  631
  619
  577
  552
  522
  486
  447
  406
  363
  322
  284
  247
  211
  178
  148
  120
  96
  76
  58
  44
  33
  24
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  94.8
  90.5
  86.8
  83.8
  81.2
  79.1
  77.2
  75.7
  74.4
  73.3
  72.7
  72.1
  71.7
  71.5
  71.3
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1
  71.1

WageWorks, Inc. is engaged in administering Consumer-Directed Benefits (CDBs). The Company administers CBDs, including pre-tax spending accounts, such as Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), health and dependent care Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs), and Health Reimbursement Arrangements (HRAs), as well as Commuter Benefit Services, including transit and parking programs, wellness programs, Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (COBRA) and other employee benefits. Its CDB programs assist employees and their families in saving money by using pre-tax dollars to pay for certain of their healthcare, dependent care and commuter expenses. Employers financially benefit from its programs through reduced payroll taxes. It provides operational support services to its clients and its cross-functional teams, including customer support and claims processing. It administers HSAs for employers that allow employee participants to invest funds to be used for qualified healthcare expenses.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  WageWorks (WAGE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 68
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 61%
Total Debt to Equity 61%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.9%
EBITDA Margin 11.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Operating Margin 9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 0%

WAGE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WAGE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $364.713 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by WageWorks. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of WageWorks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WAGE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WAGE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of WageWorks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of WageWorks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WAGE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WAGE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for WageWorks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for WageWorks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WAGE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WAGE are equal to 63.2%.

Life of production assets of 48.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in WageWorks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WAGE is equal to -154.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $408.097 million for WageWorks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.637 million for WageWorks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of WageWorks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ WageWorks Appoints George P. Scanlon to Board of Directors   [Oct-25-18 07:14AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ WageWorks' Very Bad Day   [Sep-18-18 09:16AM  Motley Fool]
▶ WageWorks opens downtown office   [02:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ At US$051.1, Is WageWorks Inc (NYSE:WAGE) A Buy?   [Jun-25-18 07:04AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Does WageWorks Incs (NYSE:WAGE) Debt Level Pose A Problem?   [Jun-18-18 07:01PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ G7 Meeting What you need to know in markets on Friday   [Jun-07-18 05:52PM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ WageWorks' Executive Team Goes to Pieces   [Apr-12-18 05:33PM  Motley Fool]

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