Intrinsic value of Workday - WDAY

Previous Close

$136.18

  Intrinsic Value

$110.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-19%

Previous close

$136.18

 
Intrinsic value

$110.18

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of WDAY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 19.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.90
  26.51
  24.36
  22.42
  20.68
  19.11
  17.70
  16.43
  15.29
  14.26
  13.33
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
Revenue, $m
  2,762
  3,495
  4,346
  5,320
  6,421
  7,648
  9,002
  10,481
  12,083
  13,806
  15,647
  17,603
  19,671
  21,850
  24,137
  26,532
  29,033
  31,642
  34,359
  37,187
  40,126
  43,182
  46,358
  49,657
  53,087
  56,652
  60,360
  64,216
  68,231
  72,410
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,514
  3,175
  3,944
  4,824
  5,817
  6,925
  8,148
  9,483
  10,930
  12,486
  14,129
  15,895
  17,763
  19,730
  21,795
  23,957
  26,216
  28,572
  31,025
  33,578
  36,233
  38,992
  41,859
  44,839
  47,936
  51,155
  54,503
  57,985
  61,610
  65,384
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  514
  525
  537
  549
  561
  573
  586
  599
  612
  625
  639
  653
  667
  682
  697
  712
  728
  744
  761
  777
  794
  812
  830
  848
  867
  886
  905
  925
  945
  966
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,028
  3,700
  4,481
  5,373
  6,378
  7,498
  8,734
  10,082
  11,542
  13,111
  14,768
  16,548
  18,430
  20,412
  22,492
  24,669
  26,944
  29,316
  31,786
  34,355
  37,027
  39,804
  42,689
  45,687
  48,803
  52,041
  55,408
  58,910
  62,555
  66,350
Operating income, $m
  -265
  -206
  -135
  -52
  43
  150
  268
  399
  541
  695
  879
  1,055
  1,241
  1,438
  1,645
  1,862
  2,089
  2,326
  2,573
  2,831
  3,099
  3,378
  3,669
  3,970
  4,285
  4,611
  4,952
  5,306
  5,675
  6,060
EBITDA, $m
  -102
  -5
  111
  244
  396
  567
  756
  963
  1,189
  1,432
  1,693
  1,970
  2,264
  2,574
  2,900
  3,242
  3,599
  3,972
  4,360
  4,765
  5,186
  5,624
  6,079
  6,553
  7,045
  7,557
  8,090
  8,645
  9,223
  9,825
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  81
  128
  184
  249
  323
  407
  500
  604
  716
  839
  970
  1,110
  1,259
  1,417
  1,583
  1,758
  1,940
  2,131
  2,330
  2,537
  2,753
  2,977
  3,210
  3,452
  3,704
  3,965
  4,237
  4,520
  4,814
  5,120
Earnings before tax, $m
  -346
  -333
  -318
  -300
  -280
  -257
  -232
  -205
  -175
  -143
  -91
  -55
  -18
  21
  62
  104
  149
  195
  244
  294
  347
  401
  459
  519
  581
  646
  715
  786
  862
  940
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  17
  28
  40
  53
  66
  79
  94
  108
  124
  140
  157
  175
  193
  212
  233
  254
Net income, $m
  -346
  -333
  -318
  -300
  -280
  -257
  -232
  -205
  -175
  -143
  -91
  -55
  -18
  15
  45
  76
  109
  143
  178
  215
  253
  293
  335
  379
  424
  472
  522
  574
  629
  686

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,378
  5,538
  6,887
  8,432
  10,176
  12,120
  14,266
  16,610
  19,149
  21,880
  24,797
  27,897
  31,175
  34,627
  38,252
  42,047
  46,012
  50,146
  54,452
  58,933
  63,592
  68,434
  73,467
  78,696
  84,132
  89,782
  95,657
  101,769
  108,131
  114,755
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,378
  5,538
  6,887
  8,432
  10,176
  12,120
  14,266
  16,610
  19,149
  21,880
  24,797
  27,897
  31,175
  34,627
  38,252
  42,047
  46,012
  50,146
  54,452
  58,933
  63,592
  68,434
  73,467
  78,696
  84,132
  89,782
  95,657
  101,769
  108,131
  114,755
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
Average production assets, $m
  718
  909
  1,130
  1,383
  1,669
  1,988
  2,340
  2,725
  3,142
  3,590
  4,068
  4,577
  5,115
  5,681
  6,276
  6,898
  7,549
  8,227
  8,933
  9,669
  10,433
  11,227
  12,053
  12,911
  13,803
  14,730
  15,694
  16,696
  17,740
  18,827
Working capital, $m
  -1,326
  -1,677
  -2,086
  -2,554
  -3,082
  -3,671
  -4,321
  -5,031
  -5,800
  -6,627
  -7,511
  -8,449
  -9,442
  -10,488
  -11,586
  -12,735
  -13,936
  -15,188
  -16,492
  -17,850
  -19,261
  -20,727
  -22,252
  -23,836
  -25,482
  -27,193
  -28,973
  -30,824
  -32,751
  -34,757
Total debt, $m
  2,366
  3,400
  4,603
  5,979
  7,532
  9,265
  11,177
  13,265
  15,528
  17,961
  20,560
  23,322
  26,243
  29,319
  32,548
  35,930
  39,462
  43,146
  46,983
  50,975
  55,126
  59,441
  63,925
  68,584
  73,427
  78,461
  83,696
  89,142
  94,810
  100,712
Total liabilities, $m
  3,901
  4,935
  6,137
  7,513
  9,066
  10,799
  12,711
  14,799
  17,062
  19,495
  22,094
  24,856
  27,777
  30,853
  34,083
  37,464
  40,996
  44,680
  48,517
  52,509
  56,660
  60,975
  65,459
  70,119
  74,961
  79,995
  85,230
  90,677
  96,345
  102,246
Total equity, $m
  477
  604
  751
  919
  1,109
  1,321
  1,555
  1,810
  2,087
  2,385
  2,703
  3,041
  3,398
  3,774
  4,169
  4,583
  5,015
  5,466
  5,935
  6,424
  6,932
  7,459
  8,008
  8,578
  9,170
  9,786
  10,427
  11,093
  11,786
  12,508
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,378
  5,539
  6,888
  8,432
  10,175
  12,120
  14,266
  16,609
  19,149
  21,880
  24,797
  27,897
  31,175
  34,627
  38,252
  42,047
  46,011
  50,146
  54,452
  58,933
  63,592
  68,434
  73,467
  78,697
  84,131
  89,781
  95,657
  101,770
  108,131
  114,754
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.960
  5.630
  6.130
  6.510
  6.790
  7.010
  7.190
  7.330
  7.440
  7.530
  7.610
  7.670
  7.720
  7.770
  7.810
  7.840
  7.870
  7.890
  7.920
  7.940
  7.950
  7.970
  7.980
  8.000
  8.010
  8.020
  8.030
  8.040
  8.040
  8.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -346
  -333
  -318
  -300
  -280
  -257
  -232
  -205
  -175
  -143
  -91
  -55
  -18
  15
  45
  76
  109
  143
  178
  215
  253
  293
  335
  379
  424
  472
  522
  574
  629
  686
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  163
  201
  245
  296
  353
  417
  487
  564
  648
  737
  814
  915
  1,023
  1,136
  1,255
  1,380
  1,510
  1,645
  1,787
  1,934
  2,087
  2,245
  2,411
  2,582
  2,761
  2,946
  3,139
  3,339
  3,548
  3,765
Funds from operations, $m
  -183
  -132
  -73
  -4
  73
  160
  255
  360
  473
  594
  723
  860
  1,005
  1,151
  1,300
  1,456
  1,618
  1,788
  1,965
  2,148
  2,340
  2,539
  2,745
  2,961
  3,185
  3,418
  3,661
  3,913
  4,177
  4,452
Change in working capital, $m
  -297
  -352
  -409
  -468
  -528
  -589
  -650
  -710
  -769
  -827
  -884
  -939
  -993
  -1,046
  -1,098
  -1,149
  -1,201
  -1,252
  -1,304
  -1,357
  -1,411
  -1,467
  -1,524
  -1,584
  -1,646
  -1,711
  -1,780
  -1,851
  -1,927
  -2,006
Cash from operations, $m
  114
  219
  336
  463
  601
  749
  905
  1,070
  1,242
  1,421
  1,607
  1,799
  1,998
  2,197
  2,398
  2,605
  2,819
  3,040
  3,269
  3,505
  3,751
  4,005
  4,270
  4,545
  4,831
  5,129
  5,440
  5,765
  6,104
  6,458
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -111
  -144
  -182
  -226
  -277
  -334
  -398
  -468
  -545
  -628
  -718
  -814
  -915
  -1,023
  -1,136
  -1,255
  -1,380
  -1,510
  -1,645
  -1,787
  -1,934
  -2,087
  -2,245
  -2,411
  -2,582
  -2,761
  -2,946
  -3,139
  -3,339
  -3,548
New CAPEX, $m
  -162
  -190
  -221
  -253
  -286
  -319
  -352
  -385
  -417
  -448
  -479
  -509
  -538
  -566
  -595
  -623
  -650
  -678
  -706
  -735
  -764
  -794
  -826
  -858
  -892
  -927
  -964
  -1,003
  -1,044
  -1,087
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -273
  -334
  -403
  -479
  -563
  -653
  -750
  -853
  -962
  -1,076
  -1,197
  -1,323
  -1,453
  -1,589
  -1,731
  -1,878
  -2,030
  -2,188
  -2,351
  -2,522
  -2,698
  -2,881
  -3,071
  -3,269
  -3,474
  -3,688
  -3,910
  -4,142
  -4,383
  -4,635
Free cash flow, $m
  -159
  -115
  -67
  -16
  39
  96
  156
  217
  280
  345
  410
  477
  545
  608
  667
  728
  789
  852
  917
  984
  1,053
  1,124
  1,199
  1,276
  1,357
  1,442
  1,530
  1,623
  1,721
  1,823
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  875
  1,034
  1,202
  1,376
  1,554
  1,733
  1,912
  2,089
  2,263
  2,433
  2,599
  2,762
  2,921
  3,076
  3,230
  3,381
  3,532
  3,684
  3,837
  3,992
  4,151
  4,315
  4,484
  4,660
  4,843
  5,034
  5,235
  5,446
  5,668
  5,902
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  452
  460
  465
  469
  470
  469
  466
  460
  452
  441
  409
  393
  375
  361
  350
  337
  323
  308
  292
  274
  255
  235
  214
  191
  168
  144
  119
  92
  64
  36
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,327
  1,494
  1,667
  1,845
  2,024
  2,202
  2,378
  2,549
  2,715
  2,874
  3,008
  3,155
  3,296
  3,437
  3,580
  3,718
  3,855
  3,992
  4,129
  4,266
  4,406
  4,550
  4,698
  4,851
  5,011
  5,178
  5,354
  5,538
  5,732
  5,938
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,168
  1,379
  1,600
  1,829
  2,062
  2,298
  2,533
  2,766
  2,995
  3,219
  3,418
  3,632
  3,841
  4,045
  4,247
  4,446
  4,645
  4,844
  5,045
  5,250
  5,459
  5,674
  5,896
  6,127
  6,368
  6,620
  6,884
  7,161
  7,453
  7,761
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -452
  -460
  -465
  -469
  -470
  -469
  -466
  -460
  -452
  -441
  -409
  -393
  -375
  -376
  -395
  -414
  -432
  -451
  -469
  -488
  -508
  -528
  -549
  -570
  -592
  -616
  -640
  -666
  -693
  -722
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,209
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,925
  919
  1,135
  1,360
  1,592
  1,829
  2,067
  2,306
  2,543
  2,777
  3,009
  3,239
  3,465
  3,669
  3,852
  4,033
  4,213
  4,393
  4,576
  4,761
  4,951
  5,146
  5,348
  5,557
  5,776
  6,004
  6,243
  6,495
  6,760
  7,039
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,846
  841
  988
  1,120
  1,234
  1,327
  1,397
  1,441
  1,461
  1,456
  1,429
  1,382
  1,318
  1,232
  1,131
  1,025
  917
  809
  705
  605
  512
  427
  350
  283
  225
  175
  134
  100
  74
  53
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  89.2
  81.3
  75.5
  71.1
  67.6
  64.9
  62.7
  60.9
  59.4
  58.1
  57.2
  56.3
  55.7
  55.1
  54.6
  54.1
  53.7
  53.4
  53.1
  52.9
  52.7
  52.5
  52.4
  52.2
  52.1
  52.0
  52.0
  51.9
  51.9
  51.9

Workday, Inc. is a provider of enterprise cloud applications for finance and human resources. The Company delivers financial management, human capital management and analytics applications designed for various companies, educational institutions and government agencies. As part of its applications, the Company provides embedded analytics that capture the content and context of everyday business events, facilitating informed decision-making from wherever users are working. Its applications include Workday Financial Management, Workday Human Capital Management (HCM) and Other Applications. It also provides open, standards-based Web-services application programming interfaces, and pre-built packaged integrations and connectors. Workday Financial Management is a unified application with a range of financial capabilities, relevant analytics and metrics, and auditable process management. Workday HCM allows an organization to staff, pay, organize and develop its global workforce.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Workday (WDAY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -67.8
Price to Sales 17.6
Price to Book 21.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 79.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 228.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 35%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 70.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41.8%
Total Debt to Equity 41.8%
Interest Coverage -67
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -13.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.7%
Return On Total Capital -23.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.8%
Return On Equity -33.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -27%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.8%
EBITDA Margin -18.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.4%
Operating Margin -25%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -26.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.4%
Net Profit Margin -26%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

WDAY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WDAY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2143.05 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Workday. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Workday. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WDAY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 28.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WDAY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Workday, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Workday.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WDAY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $503 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WDAY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Workday.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Workday. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WDAY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WDAY are equal to 26%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Workday operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WDAY is equal to -48%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1580.365 million for Workday - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 146.194 million for Workday is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Workday at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $19.9 billion.

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