Intrinsic value of Workday, Inc. - WDAY

Previous Close

$216.33

  Intrinsic Value

$108.60

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-50%

Previous close

$216.33

 
Intrinsic value

$108.60

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WDAY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 47.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  33.80
  30.92
  28.33
  26.00
  23.90
  22.01
  20.31
  18.77
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
Revenue, $m
  2,867
  3,754
  4,817
  6,070
  7,520
  9,175
  11,038
  13,110
  15,391
  17,878
  20,567
  23,454
  26,535
  29,804
  33,258
  36,893
  40,706
  44,696
  48,863
  53,208
  57,731
  62,437
  67,329
  72,414
  77,699
  83,190
  88,898
  94,831
  101,002
  107,422
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,608
  3,409
  4,369
  5,500
  6,810
  8,304
  9,986
  11,857
  13,917
  16,162
  18,571
  21,178
  23,959
  26,911
  30,030
  33,312
  36,755
  40,359
  44,121
  48,044
  52,128
  56,377
  60,795
  65,386
  70,158
  75,116
  80,270
  85,628
  91,200
  96,997
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  514
  525
  537
  549
  561
  573
  586
  599
  612
  625
  639
  653
  667
  682
  697
  712
  728
  744
  761
  777
  794
  812
  830
  848
  867
  886
  905
  925
  945
  966
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,122
  3,934
  4,906
  6,049
  7,371
  8,877
  10,572
  12,456
  14,529
  16,787
  19,210
  21,831
  24,626
  27,593
  30,727
  34,024
  37,483
  41,103
  44,882
  48,821
  52,922
  57,189
  61,625
  66,234
  71,025
  76,002
  81,175
  86,553
  92,145
  97,963
Operating income, $m
  -255
  -180
  -89
  21
  150
  298
  466
  654
  863
  1,090
  1,357
  1,623
  1,908
  2,210
  2,531
  2,868
  3,222
  3,594
  3,982
  4,387
  4,809
  5,248
  5,705
  6,180
  6,674
  7,188
  7,723
  8,279
  8,857
  9,459
EBITDA, $m
  -87
  34
  181
  356
  560
  794
  1,059
  1,355
  1,682
  2,039
  2,427
  2,843
  3,288
  3,760
  4,260
  4,786
  5,339
  5,918
  6,523
  7,153
  7,811
  8,494
  9,206
  9,946
  10,715
  11,514
  12,345
  13,210
  14,109
  15,045
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  81
  136
  203
  284
  380
  491
  617
  759
  917
  1,091
  1,280
  1,485
  1,706
  1,940
  2,190
  2,453
  2,730
  3,021
  3,325
  3,643
  3,974
  4,319
  4,678
  5,051
  5,439
  5,842
  6,260
  6,696
  7,148
  7,619
Earnings before tax, $m
  -336
  -316
  -292
  -264
  -230
  -193
  -151
  -104
  -54
  0
  77
  138
  202
  270
  341
  415
  492
  573
  656
  744
  834
  929
  1,027
  1,129
  1,235
  1,346
  1,462
  1,583
  1,709
  1,841
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  21
  37
  55
  73
  92
  112
  133
  155
  177
  201
  225
  251
  277
  305
  334
  364
  395
  427
  461
  497
Net income, $m
  -336
  -316
  -292
  -264
  -230
  -193
  -151
  -104
  -54
  0
  56
  101
  148
  197
  249
  303
  359
  418
  479
  543
  609
  678
  750
  824
  902
  983
  1,067
  1,156
  1,248
  1,344

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,544
  5,949
  7,634
  9,619
  11,918
  14,540
  17,493
  20,777
  24,391
  28,333
  32,594
  37,170
  42,052
  47,233
  52,706
  58,467
  64,510
  70,834
  77,438
  84,323
  91,491
  98,949
  106,703
  114,761
  123,136
  131,839
  140,884
  150,287
  160,067
  170,242
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,544
  5,949
  7,634
  9,619
  11,918
  14,540
  17,493
  20,777
  24,391
  28,333
  32,594
  37,170
  42,052
  47,233
  52,706
  58,467
  64,510
  70,834
  77,438
  84,323
  91,491
  98,949
  106,703
  114,761
  123,136
  131,839
  140,884
  150,287
  160,067
  170,242
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
Average production assets, $m
  746
  976
  1,253
  1,578
  1,955
  2,385
  2,870
  3,409
  4,002
  4,648
  5,347
  6,098
  6,899
  7,749
  8,647
  9,592
  10,584
  11,621
  12,704
  13,834
  15,010
  16,234
  17,506
  18,828
  20,202
  21,629
  23,113
  24,656
  26,261
  27,930
Working capital, $m
  -1,376
  -1,802
  -2,312
  -2,913
  -3,610
  -4,404
  -5,298
  -6,293
  -7,388
  -8,581
  -9,872
  -11,258
  -12,737
  -14,306
  -15,964
  -17,708
  -19,539
  -21,454
  -23,454
  -25,540
  -27,711
  -29,970
  -32,318
  -34,759
  -37,295
  -39,931
  -42,671
  -45,519
  -48,481
  -51,563
Total debt, $m
  2,515
  3,766
  5,268
  7,036
  9,084
  11,421
  14,052
  16,978
  20,199
  23,710
  27,507
  31,584
  35,934
  40,550
  45,427
  50,560
  55,945
  61,579
  67,463
  73,597
  79,984
  86,629
  93,538
  100,718
  108,180
  115,934
  123,993
  132,372
  141,085
  150,151
Total liabilities, $m
  4,049
  5,301
  6,802
  8,571
  10,619
  12,955
  15,586
  18,512
  21,733
  25,244
  29,042
  33,118
  37,468
  42,084
  46,961
  52,094
  57,479
  63,113
  68,997
  75,131
  81,519
  88,163
  95,072
  102,252
  109,714
  117,468
  125,527
  133,906
  142,620
  151,685
Total equity, $m
  495
  648
  832
  1,048
  1,299
  1,585
  1,907
  2,265
  2,659
  3,088
  3,553
  4,052
  4,584
  5,148
  5,745
  6,373
  7,032
  7,721
  8,441
  9,191
  9,973
  10,785
  11,631
  12,509
  13,422
  14,370
  15,356
  16,381
  17,447
  18,556
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,544
  5,949
  7,634
  9,619
  11,918
  14,540
  17,493
  20,777
  24,392
  28,332
  32,595
  37,170
  42,052
  47,232
  52,706
  58,467
  64,511
  70,834
  77,438
  84,322
  91,492
  98,948
  106,703
  114,761
  123,136
  131,838
  140,883
  150,287
  160,067
  170,241
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.080
  5.810
  6.330
  6.710
  6.990
  7.210
  7.370
  7.500
  7.600
  7.680
  7.740
  7.800
  7.840
  7.880
  7.910
  7.930
  7.960
  7.980
  7.990
  8.010
  8.020
  8.030
  8.040
  8.050
  8.060
  8.070
  8.070
  8.080
  8.090
  8.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -336
  -316
  -292
  -264
  -230
  -193
  -151
  -104
  -54
  0
  56
  101
  148
  197
  249
  303
  359
  418
  479
  543
  609
  678
  750
  824
  902
  983
  1,067
  1,156
  1,248
  1,344
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  169
  215
  270
  335
  410
  496
  593
  701
  820
  949
  1,069
  1,220
  1,380
  1,550
  1,729
  1,918
  2,117
  2,324
  2,541
  2,767
  3,002
  3,247
  3,501
  3,766
  4,040
  4,326
  4,623
  4,931
  5,252
  5,586
Funds from operations, $m
  -167
  -102
  -22
  71
  180
  304
  443
  597
  765
  949
  1,125
  1,320
  1,527
  1,747
  1,978
  2,221
  2,476
  2,742
  3,020
  3,310
  3,611
  3,925
  4,251
  4,590
  4,942
  5,309
  5,690
  6,087
  6,500
  6,930
Change in working capital, $m
  -348
  -426
  -510
  -601
  -696
  -794
  -894
  -995
  -1,095
  -1,194
  -1,291
  -1,386
  -1,479
  -1,569
  -1,658
  -1,745
  -1,830
  -1,915
  -2,000
  -2,085
  -2,171
  -2,259
  -2,348
  -2,441
  -2,536
  -2,636
  -2,740
  -2,848
  -2,962
  -3,082
Cash from operations, $m
  180
  324
  488
  673
  876
  1,098
  1,337
  1,591
  1,860
  2,142
  2,416
  2,706
  3,006
  3,316
  3,636
  3,966
  4,307
  4,658
  5,020
  5,395
  5,782
  6,183
  6,599
  7,031
  7,479
  7,945
  8,430
  8,935
  9,462
  10,011
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -111
  -149
  -195
  -251
  -316
  -391
  -477
  -574
  -682
  -800
  -930
  -1,069
  -1,220
  -1,380
  -1,550
  -1,729
  -1,918
  -2,117
  -2,324
  -2,541
  -2,767
  -3,002
  -3,247
  -3,501
  -3,766
  -4,040
  -4,326
  -4,623
  -4,931
  -5,252
New CAPEX, $m
  -189
  -231
  -276
  -326
  -377
  -430
  -484
  -539
  -593
  -647
  -699
  -751
  -801
  -850
  -898
  -945
  -992
  -1,038
  -1,083
  -1,129
  -1,176
  -1,224
  -1,272
  -1,322
  -1,374
  -1,428
  -1,484
  -1,543
  -1,604
  -1,669
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -300
  -380
  -471
  -577
  -693
  -821
  -961
  -1,113
  -1,275
  -1,447
  -1,629
  -1,820
  -2,021
  -2,230
  -2,448
  -2,674
  -2,910
  -3,155
  -3,407
  -3,670
  -3,943
  -4,226
  -4,519
  -4,823
  -5,140
  -5,468
  -5,810
  -6,166
  -6,535
  -6,921
Free cash flow, $m
  -120
  -56
  16
  96
  184
  277
  375
  479
  585
  696
  787
  886
  986
  1,086
  1,188
  1,292
  1,397
  1,503
  1,613
  1,724
  1,839
  1,958
  2,080
  2,207
  2,339
  2,477
  2,620
  2,769
  2,926
  3,090
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,023
  1,252
  1,502
  1,768
  2,048
  2,337
  2,631
  2,926
  3,221
  3,512
  3,797
  4,077
  4,350
  4,616
  4,877
  5,133
  5,385
  5,635
  5,884
  6,134
  6,387
  6,645
  6,909
  7,180
  7,462
  7,754
  8,059
  8,379
  8,714
  9,066
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  460
  469
  476
  480
  481
  479
  472
  462
  448
  430
  409
  398
  384
  368
  348
  325
  299
  271
  241
  208
  172
  135
  96
  54
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,483
  1,721
  1,978
  2,248
  2,529
  2,816
  3,103
  3,388
  3,669
  3,942
  4,206
  4,475
  4,734
  4,984
  5,225
  5,458
  5,684
  5,906
  6,125
  6,342
  6,559
  6,780
  7,005
  7,234
  7,473
  7,754
  8,059
  8,379
  8,714
  9,066
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,363
  1,666
  1,994
  2,345
  2,712
  3,092
  3,479
  3,867
  4,254
  4,637
  4,993
  5,361
  5,720
  6,070
  6,413
  6,749
  7,081
  7,409
  7,737
  8,066
  8,399
  8,738
  9,085
  9,442
  9,812
  10,231
  10,679
  11,148
  11,640
  12,156
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -460
  -469
  -476
  -480
  -481
  -479
  -472
  -462
  -448
  -430
  -465
  -499
  -532
  -565
  -597
  -628
  -659
  -689
  -720
  -750
  -781
  -813
  -845
  -878
  -913
  -949
  -986
  -1,025
  -1,066
  -1,109
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,209
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,112
  1,196
  1,518
  1,865
  2,232
  2,614
  3,006
  3,405
  3,806
  4,207
  4,529
  4,862
  5,188
  5,506
  5,816
  6,121
  6,422
  6,720
  7,017
  7,316
  7,618
  7,925
  8,239
  8,563
  8,899
  9,282
  9,693
  10,123
  10,574
  11,047
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,025
  1,095
  1,321
  1,535
  1,730
  1,897
  2,031
  2,128
  2,186
  2,206
  2,151
  2,075
  1,972
  1,848
  1,708
  1,556
  1,397
  1,238
  1,080
  930
  788
  658
  540
  436
  346
  271
  208
  157
  115
  83
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  89.0
  81.3
  75.7
  71.6
  68.5
  66.0
  64.1
  62.6
  61.4
  60.4
  59.6
  59.0
  58.4
  57.9
  57.5
  57.2
  57.0
  56.7
  56.6
  56.4
  56.3
  56.2
  56.2
  56.2
  56.2
  56.2
  56.2
  56.2
  56.2
  56.2

Workday, Inc. is a provider of enterprise cloud applications for finance and human resources. The Company delivers financial management, human capital management and analytics applications designed for various companies, educational institutions and government agencies. As part of its applications, the Company provides embedded analytics that capture the content and context of everyday business events, facilitating informed decision-making from wherever users are working. Its applications include Workday Financial Management, Workday Human Capital Management (HCM) and Other Applications. It also provides open, standards-based Web-services application programming interfaces, and pre-built packaged integrations and connectors. Workday Financial Management is a unified application with a range of financial capabilities, relevant analytics and metrics, and auditable process management. Workday HCM allows an organization to staff, pay, organize and develop its global workforce.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Workday, Inc. (WDAY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -107.6
Price to Sales 28
Price to Book 34.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 125.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 362.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 35%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 70.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41.8%
Total Debt to Equity 41.8%
Interest Coverage -67
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -13.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.7%
Return On Total Capital -23.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.8%
Return On Equity -33.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -27%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.8%
EBITDA Margin -18.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.4%
Operating Margin -25%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -26.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.4%
Net Profit Margin -26%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

WDAY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WDAY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2143 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Workday, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Workday, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WDAY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WDAY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Workday, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Workday, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WDAY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $503 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WDAY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Workday, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Workday, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WDAY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WDAY are equal to 26%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Workday, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WDAY is equal to -48%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1580.365 million for Workday, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 219.990 million for Workday, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Workday, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $47.6 billion.

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