Intrinsic value of Boingo Wireless - WIFI

Previous Close

$24.51

  Intrinsic Value

$12.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-51%

Previous close

$24.51

 
Intrinsic value

$12.00

 
Up/down potential

-51%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WIFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.60
  19.94
  18.45
  17.10
  15.89
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.15
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
Revenue, $m
  249
  298
  353
  413
  479
  550
  626
  707
  793
  884
  979
  1,079
  1,183
  1,292
  1,406
  1,525
  1,648
  1,776
  1,909
  2,047
  2,191
  2,340
  2,495
  2,657
  2,825
  3,000
  3,182
  3,372
  3,569
  3,776
Variable operating expenses, $m
  219
  262
  309
  361
  418
  479
  544
  614
  688
  766
  843
  929
  1,019
  1,113
  1,211
  1,313
  1,419
  1,529
  1,644
  1,763
  1,887
  2,015
  2,149
  2,288
  2,433
  2,583
  2,740
  2,904
  3,074
  3,252
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  86
Total operating expenses, $m
  265
  309
  357
  410
  468
  530
  596
  668
  743
  822
  900
  987
  1,079
  1,174
  1,273
  1,377
  1,484
  1,596
  1,712
  1,833
  1,958
  2,088
  2,223
  2,364
  2,511
  2,662
  2,821
  2,987
  3,159
  3,338
Operating income, $m
  -17
  -11
  -4
  3
  11
  20
  29
  39
  50
  61
  79
  91
  105
  118
  133
  148
  164
  180
  197
  215
  233
  252
  272
  293
  314
  337
  361
  385
  411
  438
EBITDA, $m
  58
  77
  99
  123
  150
  178
  209
  241
  276
  312
  351
  391
  434
  478
  524
  572
  622
  674
  728
  784
  842
  903
  966
  1,032
  1,100
  1,171
  1,246
  1,323
  1,404
  1,488
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  4
  8
  12
  17
  22
  27
  33
  39
  45
  52
  59
  67
  75
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  140
  151
  163
  174
  187
  199
  213
  226
  241
  256
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -2
  2
  7
  11
  16
  26
  32
  38
  43
  50
  56
  63
  70
  77
  85
  93
  101
  109
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  182
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
Net income, $m
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -2
  2
  5
  8
  12
  19
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  93
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  468
  561
  665
  779
  902
  1,036
  1,179
  1,332
  1,493
  1,664
  1,844
  2,032
  2,229
  2,434
  2,648
  2,871
  3,103
  3,344
  3,595
  3,855
  4,125
  4,407
  4,699
  5,003
  5,320
  5,649
  5,992
  6,349
  6,722
  7,111
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  468
  561
  665
  779
  902
  1,036
  1,179
  1,332
  1,493
  1,664
  1,844
  2,032
  2,229
  2,434
  2,648
  2,871
  3,103
  3,344
  3,595
  3,855
  4,125
  4,407
  4,699
  5,003
  5,320
  5,649
  5,992
  6,349
  6,722
  7,111
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.532
  0.531
  0.531
  0.530
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
Average production assets, $m
  346
  415
  491
  575
  666
  765
  871
  984
  1,103
  1,229
  1,362
  1,501
  1,646
  1,798
  1,956
  2,121
  2,292
  2,470
  2,655
  2,847
  3,047
  3,255
  3,471
  3,695
  3,929
  4,172
  4,426
  4,690
  4,965
  5,252
Working capital, $m
  -101
  -122
  -144
  -169
  -195
  -224
  -255
  -288
  -324
  -361
  -399
  -440
  -483
  -527
  -574
  -622
  -672
  -724
  -779
  -835
  -894
  -955
  -1,018
  -1,084
  -1,152
  -1,224
  -1,298
  -1,376
  -1,456
  -1,541
Total debt, $m
  76
  145
  222
  307
  399
  499
  605
  719
  839
  967
  1,100
  1,241
  1,387
  1,540
  1,700
  1,866
  2,039
  2,218
  2,405
  2,599
  2,800
  3,010
  3,228
  3,454
  3,690
  3,935
  4,191
  4,457
  4,735
  5,024
Total liabilities, $m
  349
  418
  495
  580
  672
  772
  878
  992
  1,113
  1,240
  1,373
  1,514
  1,660
  1,813
  1,973
  2,139
  2,312
  2,491
  2,678
  2,872
  3,073
  3,283
  3,501
  3,727
  3,963
  4,208
  4,464
  4,730
  5,008
  5,297
Total equity, $m
  119
  143
  170
  199
  230
  264
  301
  340
  381
  424
  470
  518
  568
  621
  675
  732
  791
  853
  917
  983
  1,052
  1,124
  1,198
  1,276
  1,356
  1,440
  1,528
  1,619
  1,714
  1,813
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  468
  561
  665
  779
  902
  1,036
  1,179
  1,332
  1,494
  1,664
  1,843
  2,032
  2,228
  2,434
  2,648
  2,871
  3,103
  3,344
  3,595
  3,855
  4,125
  4,407
  4,699
  5,003
  5,319
  5,648
  5,992
  6,349
  6,722
  7,110
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.630
  1.010
  1.310
  1.550
  1.730
  1.890
  2.010
  2.120
  2.200
  2.280
  2.340
  2.390
  2.440
  2.480
  2.520
  2.550
  2.580
  2.600
  2.620
  2.640
  2.660
  2.680
  2.690
  2.710
  2.720
  2.730
  2.740
  2.750
  2.760
  2.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -2
  2
  5
  8
  12
  19
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  93
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  74
  88
  103
  120
  139
  158
  179
  202
  226
  251
  272
  300
  329
  360
  391
  424
  458
  494
  531
  569
  609
  651
  694
  739
  786
  834
  885
  938
  993
  1,050
Funds from operations, $m
  57
  73
  91
  111
  133
  157
  181
  207
  234
  263
  292
  323
  357
  391
  427
  465
  504
  545
  587
  631
  677
  725
  774
  826
  879
  935
  993
  1,054
  1,117
  1,183
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
Cash from operations, $m
  75
  93
  114
  136
  160
  185
  212
  240
  269
  300
  331
  364
  399
  436
  474
  513
  554
  597
  642
  688
  736
  786
  837
  891
  948
  1,006
  1,068
  1,131
  1,198
  1,267
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -57
  -69
  -83
  -98
  -115
  -133
  -153
  -174
  -197
  -221
  -246
  -272
  -300
  -329
  -360
  -391
  -424
  -458
  -494
  -531
  -569
  -609
  -651
  -694
  -739
  -786
  -834
  -885
  -938
  -993
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -91
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -275
  -287
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -119
  -138
  -159
  -182
  -206
  -232
  -259
  -287
  -316
  -347
  -379
  -411
  -445
  -481
  -518
  -556
  -595
  -636
  -679
  -723
  -769
  -817
  -867
  -919
  -973
  -1,029
  -1,087
  -1,149
  -1,213
  -1,280
Free cash flow, $m
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -47
  -48
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -43
  -41
  -39
  -38
  -36
  -34
  -32
  -29
  -27
  -25
  -23
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  62
  70
  77
  85
  92
  100
  107
  114
  120
  127
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  209
  218
  227
  236
  245
  256
  266
  278
  290
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  39
  39
  39
  38
  37
  36
  35
  34
  33
  32
  26
  25
  23
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  8
  5
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  101
  109
  116
  123
  129
  136
  142
  148
  153
  159
  160
  165
  170
  174
  178
  182
  186
  191
  195
  199
  203
  209
  218
  227
  236
  245
  256
  266
  278
  290
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  57
  64
  70
  76
  83
  89
  95
  101
  106
  112
  112
  118
  123
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  178
  188
  199
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  277
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -39
  -39
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  18
  25
  32
  38
  46
  53
  58
  62
  65
  69
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  100
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  178
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  18
  23
  27
  32
  35
  38
  39
  39
  37
  36
  32
  30
  28
  26
  23
  21
  19
  16
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.2
  93.1
  90.7
  88.7
  87.1
  85.7
  84.6
  83.7
  82.9
  82.2
  81.7
  81.3
  80.9
  80.6
  80.4
  80.2
  80.0
  79.9
  79.9
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8
  79.8

Boingo Wireless, Inc. is a provider of commercial mobile wireless fidelity (Wi-Fi) Internet solutions and indoor direct-attached storage (DAS) services. The Company operates as a service provider of wireless connectivity solutions across its managed and operated network and aggregated network for mobile devices such as laptops, smartphones, tablets and other wireless-enabled consumer devices. It acquires long-term wireless rights at venues, such as airports, transportation hubs, stadiums, arenas, universities, convention centers, and office campuses; builds wireless networks, such as DAS, Wi-Fi and small cells at those venues, and monetizes the wireless networks through a range of products and services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 36 DAS networks containing approximately 19,200 DAS nodes. Its Wi-Fi network includes locations that the Company manages and operates, as well as networks managed and operated by third-parties with whom it contracts for access.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Boingo Wireless (WIFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -35
Price to Sales 5.9
Price to Book 9.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 118.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 29%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 21.4%
Total Debt to Equity 26.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.2%
Return On Total Capital -21.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.5%
Return On Equity -25.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
EBITDA Margin 15.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Operating Margin -16.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -17%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Net Profit Margin -17%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

WIFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WIFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $204.369 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Boingo Wireless. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Boingo Wireless. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WIFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WIFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Boingo Wireless, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Boingo Wireless.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WIFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $45 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WIFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Boingo Wireless.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Boingo Wireless. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WIFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WIFI are equal to 139.1%.

Life of production assets of 4.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Boingo Wireless operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WIFI is equal to -40.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $97.818 million for Boingo Wireless - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.816 million for Boingo Wireless is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Boingo Wireless at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Boingo Wireless Stock Just Dropped 19%   [Nov-02-18 01:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Boingo: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Momo Inc. (MOMO) Catches Eye: Stock Jumps 8.6%   [Aug-23-18 08:35AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Boingo Wireless Stock Dropped 11% on Friday   [Aug-03-18 06:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Boingo: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Boingo Deploys CBRS at Dallas Love Field Airport   [Jul-23-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Boingo: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-04-18 05:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It The Right Time To Buy Boingo Wireless Inc (NASDAQ:WIFI)?   [Apr-14-18 08:39AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Boingo CEO: 5G will revolutionize the world   [11:30AM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ Boingo reports 4Q loss   [05:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Boingo Wireless Q4 Earnings Outlook   [12:03PM  Benzinga]
▶ Free Wi-Fi service now available at Honolulu international airport   [Dec-22-17 12:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Boingo Wireless Inc (WIFI) Shares Soar on Q3 Earnings Beat   [Nov-03-17 04:56PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Boingo reports 3Q loss   [05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Boingo Wireless to Host Analyst and Investor Day   [Oct-17-17 09:46AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ LAX's cell service speeds among the worst   [Jul-24-17 05:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Your first trade for Tuesday, July 11   [Jul-11-17 09:32AM  CNBC]
▶ Boingo Wireless starts to see positive results with business transformation   [May-23-17 02:45PM  American City Business Journals]

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