Intrinsic value of Wingstop - WING

Previous Close

$65.56

  Intrinsic Value

$6.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$65.56

 
Intrinsic value

$6.29

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WING stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.30
  16.07
  14.96
  13.97
  13.07
  12.26
  11.54
  10.88
  10.29
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.47
  8.13
  7.81
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
Revenue, $m
  124
  144
  165
  188
  213
  239
  267
  296
  326
  358
  391
  426
  462
  499
  538
  579
  621
  665
  710
  758
  807
  858
  911
  967
  1,025
  1,085
  1,148
  1,214
  1,282
  1,354
Variable operating expenses, $m
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  105
  116
  128
  140
  153
  157
  171
  185
  200
  216
  232
  249
  267
  285
  304
  324
  344
  366
  388
  411
  435
  461
  487
  514
  543
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
Total operating expenses, $m
  77
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  137
  149
  162
  175
  180
  194
  209
  224
  241
  257
  275
  294
  312
  332
  352
  373
  396
  418
  442
  467
  493
  520
  548
  578
Operating income, $m
  46
  58
  70
  84
  98
  113
  129
  146
  164
  182
  211
  232
  253
  275
  297
  321
  346
  372
  398
  426
  455
  485
  516
  549
  583
  618
  655
  694
  734
  776
EBITDA, $m
  58
  70
  82
  96
  111
  127
  143
  161
  179
  198
  218
  239
  260
  283
  306
  331
  356
  383
  410
  439
  468
  499
  531
  565
  600
  636
  674
  714
  755
  799
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  7
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
Earnings before tax, $m
  39
  53
  65
  77
  90
  104
  118
  134
  150
  167
  194
  213
  232
  252
  272
  294
  316
  340
  364
  389
  416
  443
  471
  501
  532
  564
  598
  633
  670
  708
Tax expense, $m
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  144
  152
  161
  171
  181
  191
Net income, $m
  29
  39
  47
  56
  66
  76
  86
  98
  110
  122
  142
  155
  169
  184
  199
  215
  231
  248
  266
  284
  303
  323
  344
  366
  388
  412
  436
  462
  489
  517

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  140
  162
  187
  213
  241
  270
  301
  334
  368
  404
  442
  481
  522
  564
  608
  654
  702
  751
  803
  856
  912
  970
  1,030
  1,093
  1,158
  1,226
  1,297
  1,371
  1,449
  1,529
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  140
  162
  187
  213
  241
  270
  301
  334
  368
  404
  442
  481
  522
  564
  608
  654
  702
  751
  803
  856
  912
  970
  1,030
  1,093
  1,158
  1,226
  1,297
  1,371
  1,449
  1,529
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.886
  0.889
  0.882
  0.883
  0.884
  0.885
  0.887
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.885
  0.886
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.884
  0.886
  0.885
  0.885
  0.884
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.886
Average production assets, $m
  62
  72
  82
  94
  106
  119
  133
  147
  162
  178
  195
  212
  230
  249
  268
  288
  309
  331
  354
  377
  402
  427
  454
  482
  510
  540
  572
  604
  638
  674
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
Total debt, $m
  81
  101
  123
  147
  172
  198
  226
  256
  287
  319
  353
  388
  425
  463
  503
  544
  587
  631
  678
  726
  776
  828
  882
  938
  997
  1,059
  1,122
  1,189
  1,259
  1,332
Total liabilities, $m
  126
  146
  168
  191
  217
  243
  271
  301
  332
  364
  398
  433
  470
  508
  547
  589
  632
  676
  722
  771
  821
  873
  927
  983
  1,042
  1,103
  1,167
  1,234
  1,304
  1,376
Total equity, $m
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  140
  162
  187
  212
  241
  270
  301
  334
  369
  404
  442
  481
  522
  564
  608
  654
  702
  751
  802
  857
  912
  970
  1,030
  1,092
  1,158
  1,226
  1,297
  1,371
  1,449
  1,529
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.790
  6.230
  6.590
  6.890
  7.130
  7.340
  7.510
  7.660
  7.780
  7.890
  7.980
  8.070
  8.140
  8.200
  8.260
  8.310
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.480
  8.510
  8.540
  8.560
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  39
  47
  56
  66
  76
  86
  98
  110
  122
  142
  155
  169
  184
  199
  215
  231
  248
  266
  284
  303
  323
  344
  366
  388
  412
  436
  462
  489
  517
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  51
  60
  69
  79
  89
  100
  112
  124
  137
  148
  162
  177
  192
  208
  224
  241
  259
  278
  297
  317
  338
  359
  382
  406
  430
  456
  482
  510
  540
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  41
  52
  60
  70
  80
  90
  101
  113
  126
  139
  149
  164
  178
  193
  209
  226
  243
  261
  279
  299
  319
  340
  361
  384
  408
  432
  458
  485
  513
  542
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Free cash flow, $m
  30
  40
  47
  55
  64
  74
  84
  94
  105
  117
  127
  140
  153
  167
  182
  197
  212
  229
  246
  263
  281
  301
  320
  341
  363
  385
  408
  433
  458
  485
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -52
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  60
  69
  79
  89
  100
  112
  124
  136
  150
  161
  175
  190
  205
  221
  238
  255
  273
  292
  311
  332
  353
  375
  398
  421
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -72
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -51
  58
  67
  76
  86
  97
  109
  121
  133
  146
  157
  171
  186
  201
  217
  233
  250
  268
  287
  306
  326
  347
  369
  391
  415
  440
  465
  492
  520
  550
Discount rate, %
  12.90
  13.55
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.05
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.74
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
  50.57
  53.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -45
  45
  45
  44
  42
  39
  36
  32
  28
  24
  19
  16
  12
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Wingstop Inc. is franchisor and operator of restaurants that specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced and tossed chicken wings. The Company operates through two segments: Franchise and Company. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offers its guests 11 flavors on bone-in and boneless chicken wings paired with hand-cut, seasoned fries and sides. It is a casual chicken wings-focused restaurant chain with various concepts, which include wings as add-on menu items or focus on wings in a bar or sports-centric setting. The flavors include Atomic, Mango Habanero, Cajun, Original Hot, Louisiana Rub, Mild, Hickory Smoked BBQ, Lemon Pepper, Garlic Parmesan, Hawaiian and Teriyaki. It offers various order options, including eat-in, to go, individual, combo meals and family packs. The Company maintains Website hosting, and manages the development and maintenance of the mobile Wingstop application. It markets Wingstop products, services and restaurants through the Website, www.wingstop.com.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Wingstop (WING)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 125.7
Price to Sales 20.7
Price to Book -25.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 85.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 94.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity -196%
Total Debt to Equity -201.3%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Return On Total Capital 18.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Equity -35.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.5%
EBITDA Margin 36.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Operating Margin 31.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 27.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Net Profit Margin 16.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 553.3%

WING stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WING stock intrinsic value calculation we used $105.552 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Wingstop. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Wingstop. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WING stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.9%, whose default value for WING is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Wingstop, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Wingstop.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WING stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 49.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $18 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WING stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Wingstop.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Wingstop. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WING stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WING are equal to 49.8%.

Life of production assets of 29.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Wingstop operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WING is equal to -3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-58.418 million for Wingstop - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.208 million for Wingstop is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Wingstop at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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