Intrinsic value of Wright Medical Group - WMGI

Previous Close

$28.64

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$28.64

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WMGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.30
  13.37
  12.53
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  852
  965
  1,086
  1,214
  1,349
  1,491
  1,639
  1,794
  1,955
  2,123
  2,298
  2,480
  2,670
  2,866
  3,071
  3,283
  3,504
  3,733
  3,972
  4,220
  4,479
  4,749
  5,030
  5,322
  5,628
  5,947
  6,280
  6,628
  6,992
  7,372
Variable operating expenses, $m
  987
  1,104
  1,227
  1,358
  1,496
  1,641
  1,793
  1,951
  2,116
  2,288
  2,351
  2,537
  2,730
  2,931
  3,140
  3,357
  3,583
  3,818
  4,062
  4,316
  4,581
  4,856
  5,144
  5,443
  5,756
  6,082
  6,423
  6,778
  7,150
  7,539
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  987
  1,104
  1,227
  1,358
  1,496
  1,641
  1,793
  1,951
  2,116
  2,288
  2,351
  2,537
  2,730
  2,931
  3,140
  3,357
  3,583
  3,818
  4,062
  4,316
  4,581
  4,856
  5,144
  5,443
  5,756
  6,082
  6,423
  6,778
  7,150
  7,539
Operating income, $m
  -136
  -138
  -141
  -144
  -147
  -150
  -154
  -157
  -161
  -165
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
EBITDA, $m
  37
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  231
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  321
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  78
  97
  117
  139
  162
  186
  212
  238
  266
  295
  326
  357
  390
  424
  459
  496
  534
  574
  615
  658
  702
  749
  797
  848
  900
  955
  1,013
  1,073
  1,135
  1,200
Earnings before tax, $m
  -214
  -235
  -258
  -283
  -309
  -337
  -365
  -396
  -427
  -460
  -378
  -413
  -450
  -489
  -529
  -570
  -613
  -658
  -705
  -753
  -804
  -857
  -911
  -968
  -1,028
  -1,090
  -1,155
  -1,223
  -1,294
  -1,368
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -214
  -235
  -258
  -283
  -309
  -337
  -365
  -396
  -427
  -460
  -378
  -413
  -450
  -489
  -529
  -570
  -613
  -658
  -705
  -753
  -804
  -857
  -911
  -968
  -1,028
  -1,090
  -1,155
  -1,223
  -1,294
  -1,368

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,433
  2,758
  3,104
  3,470
  3,855
  4,259
  4,683
  5,125
  5,586
  6,067
  6,567
  7,087
  7,628
  8,189
  8,773
  9,380
  10,010
  10,666
  11,348
  12,058
  12,797
  13,568
  14,370
  15,207
  16,080
  16,992
  17,943
  18,938
  19,977
  21,063
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,433
  2,758
  3,104
  3,470
  3,855
  4,259
  4,683
  5,125
  5,586
  6,067
  6,567
  7,087
  7,628
  8,189
  8,773
  9,380
  10,010
  10,666
  11,348
  12,058
  12,797
  13,568
  14,370
  15,207
  16,080
  16,992
  17,943
  18,938
  19,977
  21,063
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
Average production assets, $m
  879
  996
  1,121
  1,253
  1,392
  1,538
  1,691
  1,851
  2,018
  2,191
  2,372
  2,560
  2,755
  2,958
  3,169
  3,388
  3,616
  3,853
  4,099
  4,355
  4,622
  4,901
  5,191
  5,493
  5,808
  6,137
  6,481
  6,840
  7,216
  7,608
Working capital, $m
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
  187
  200
  213
  226
  241
  255
  271
  287
  303
  321
  339
  358
  378
  399
  420
Total debt, $m
  1,114
  1,349
  1,599
  1,864
  2,142
  2,434
  2,741
  3,060
  3,394
  3,742
  4,103
  4,479
  4,870
  5,276
  5,698
  6,137
  6,592
  7,067
  7,560
  8,073
  8,608
  9,164
  9,745
  10,350
  10,981
  11,640
  12,328
  13,047
  13,798
  14,584
Total liabilities, $m
  1,759
  1,994
  2,244
  2,508
  2,787
  3,079
  3,385
  3,705
  4,039
  4,386
  4,748
  5,124
  5,515
  5,921
  6,343
  6,781
  7,237
  7,712
  8,205
  8,718
  9,253
  9,809
  10,390
  10,995
  11,626
  12,285
  12,973
  13,692
  14,443
  15,228
Total equity, $m
  674
  764
  860
  961
  1,068
  1,180
  1,297
  1,420
  1,547
  1,681
  1,819
  1,963
  2,113
  2,268
  2,430
  2,598
  2,773
  2,954
  3,143
  3,340
  3,545
  3,758
  3,981
  4,212
  4,454
  4,707
  4,970
  5,246
  5,534
  5,834
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,433
  2,758
  3,104
  3,469
  3,855
  4,259
  4,682
  5,125
  5,586
  6,067
  6,567
  7,087
  7,628
  8,189
  8,773
  9,379
  10,010
  10,666
  11,348
  12,058
  12,798
  13,567
  14,371
  15,207
  16,080
  16,992
  17,943
  18,938
  19,977
  21,062
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.650
  1.770
  1.860
  1.940
  2.010
  2.060
  2.110
  2.160
  2.190
  2.230
  2.260
  2.280
  2.300
  2.330
  2.340
  2.360
  2.380
  2.390
  2.400
  2.420
  2.430
  2.440
  2.450
  2.460
  2.470
  2.470
  2.480
  2.490
  2.490
  2.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -214
  -235
  -258
  -283
  -309
  -337
  -365
  -396
  -427
  -460
  -378
  -413
  -450
  -489
  -529
  -570
  -613
  -658
  -705
  -753
  -804
  -857
  -911
  -968
  -1,028
  -1,090
  -1,155
  -1,223
  -1,294
  -1,368
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  173
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  152
  164
  177
  190
  203
  217
  232
  247
  263
  279
  296
  314
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  438
  463
  488
Funds from operations, $m
  -41
  -55
  -70
  -86
  -103
  -122
  -141
  -160
  -181
  -203
  -226
  -249
  -274
  -299
  -325
  -353
  -382
  -411
  -442
  -474
  -508
  -542
  -579
  -616
  -656
  -697
  -740
  -784
  -831
  -880
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  -47
  -61
  -77
  -94
  -111
  -130
  -149
  -169
  -190
  -213
  -236
  -259
  -284
  -310
  -337
  -365
  -394
  -424
  -456
  -488
  -522
  -558
  -595
  -633
  -673
  -715
  -759
  -804
  -852
  -902
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -89
  -99
  -108
  -119
  -129
  -140
  -152
  -164
  -177
  -190
  -203
  -217
  -232
  -247
  -263
  -279
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -352
  -372
  -393
  -415
  -438
  -463
New CAPEX, $m
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -344
  -359
  -375
  -392
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -159
  -173
  -189
  -204
  -219
  -235
  -252
  -268
  -286
  -303
  -321
  -340
  -359
  -380
  -401
  -422
  -445
  -469
  -493
  -519
  -546
  -574
  -604
  -635
  -667
  -701
  -737
  -774
  -813
  -855
Free cash flow, $m
  -206
  -235
  -266
  -298
  -331
  -365
  -401
  -437
  -476
  -515
  -557
  -599
  -644
  -690
  -738
  -787
  -839
  -893
  -949
  -1,008
  -1,069
  -1,132
  -1,199
  -1,268
  -1,341
  -1,416
  -1,496
  -1,579
  -1,666
  -1,756
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  219
  235
  250
  264
  278
  292
  306
  320
  334
  347
  362
  376
  391
  406
  422
  439
  456
  474
  493
  513
  534
  557
  580
  605
  631
  659
  688
  719
  751
  785
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  299
  325
  354
  384
  416
  449
  483
  518
  555
  593
  516
  557
  600
  644
  690
  738
  788
  840
  894
  950
  1,009
  1,070
  1,134
  1,200
  1,270
  1,343
  1,419
  1,498
  1,581
  1,668
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  518
  560
  604
  648
  694
  741
  789
  838
  889
  940
  878
  933
  991
  1,050
  1,112
  1,177
  1,244
  1,314
  1,387
  1,463
  1,543
  1,627
  1,714
  1,805
  1,901
  2,002
  2,107
  2,217
  2,332
  2,453
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  312
  325
  338
  351
  364
  376
  388
  400
  413
  425
  321
  334
  347
  361
  375
  389
  405
  421
  438
  456
  475
  494
  515
  537
  561
  585
  611
  638
  667
  697
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -299
  -325
  -354
  -384
  -416
  -449
  -483
  -518
  -555
  -593
  -516
  -557
  -600
  -644
  -690
  -738
  -788
  -840
  -894
  -950
  -1,009
  -1,070
  -1,134
  -1,200
  -1,270
  -1,343
  -1,419
  -1,498
  -1,581
  -1,668
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  13
  0
  -16
  -33
  -52
  -73
  -94
  -118
  -142
  -168
  -195
  -223
  -253
  -284
  -316
  -349
  -383
  -419
  -456
  -494
  -534
  -575
  -618
  -663
  -709
  -758
  -808
  -860
  -914
  -971
Discount rate, %
  9.40
  9.87
  10.36
  10.88
  11.43
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.58
  15.31
  16.08
  16.88
  17.73
  18.61
  19.54
  20.52
  21.54
  22.62
  23.75
  24.94
  26.19
  27.50
  28.87
  30.32
  31.83
  33.42
  35.09
  36.85
  38.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  12
  0
  -12
  -22
  -30
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -41
  -37
  -33
  -29
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.8
  82.8
  75.8
  69.5
  64.0
  59.0
  54.6
  50.5
  46.9
  43.5
  41.0
  38.6
  36.4
  34.3
  32.3
  30.5
  28.7
  27.1
  25.6
  24.1
  22.7
  21.4
  20.2
  19.1
  18.0
  17.0
  16.0
  15.1
  14.2
  13.4

Wright Medical Group, Inc. is a global specialty orthopaedic company. The Company through Wright Medical Technology, Inc. (WMT) and other subsidiaries provides extremity and biologic solutions that enable clinicians to alleviate pain and restore the patients' lifestyles. The Company operates through three segments: U.S., International and BioMimetic. The Company's business includes products that are used in foot and ankle repair, upper extremity products and biologics products, which are used to replace damaged or diseased bone, to stimulate bone growth and to provide other biological solutions for surgeons and patients. The Company's products include extremity hardware, foot and ankle hardware, upper extremity hardware and biologics.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Wright Medical Group (WMGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.7
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -12.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -8.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 42.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 230
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 100.4%
Total Debt to Equity 100.7%
Interest Coverage -34
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -26.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.6%
Return On Total Capital -40.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.2%
Return On Equity -70.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.2%
EBITDA Margin -70.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.6%
Operating Margin -33.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -82.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -59.8%
Net Profit Margin -87.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -66%
Effective Tax Rate 2.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

WMGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WMGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $744.989 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Wright Medical Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Wright Medical Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WMGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.4%, whose default value for WMGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Wright Medical Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Wright Medical Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WMGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 117.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WMGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.7% for Wright Medical Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Wright Medical Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WMGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WMGI are equal to 103.2%.

Life of production assets of 15.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Wright Medical Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WMGI is equal to 5.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $588.696 million for Wright Medical Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 102.713 million for Wright Medical Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Wright Medical Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Wright Medical: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Wright Medical Group to Buy Cartiva for $435 Million   [07:59AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Wright Medical: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Wright Medical Group NV. (NASDAQ:WMGI)?   [Feb-17-18 12:28PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Keeley Funds Comments on Wright Medical Group   [Feb-07-18 06:22PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Wright Medical reports 3Q loss   [Nov-01-17 04:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Wright Medical   [Sep-11-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]

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