Intrinsic value of VCA - WOOF

Previous Close

$92.98

  Intrinsic Value

$88.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-5%

  Value-price divergence*

-86%

Previous close

$92.98

 
Intrinsic value

$88.32

 
Up/down potential

-5%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-86%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WOOF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.95
  13.80
  12.92
  12.13
  11.42
  10.77
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  2,517
  2,864
  3,234
  3,627
  4,041
  4,476
  4,932
  5,410
  5,908
  6,427
  6,968
  7,530
  8,114
  8,721
  9,353
  10,009
  10,690
  11,399
  12,136
  12,904
  13,702
  14,534
  15,400
  16,304
  17,246
  18,230
  19,256
  20,329
  21,449
  22,620
  23,845
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,391
  2,671
  2,969
  3,283
  3,614
  3,960
  4,322
  4,701
  5,095
  5,505
  5,715
  6,159
  6,620
  7,099
  7,597
  8,114
  8,652
  9,212
  9,794
  10,400
  11,032
  11,689
  12,375
  13,090
  13,837
  14,616
  15,430
  16,280
  17,169
  18,099
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,132
  2,391
  2,671
  2,969
  3,283
  3,614
  3,960
  4,322
  4,701
  5,095
  5,505
  5,715
  6,159
  6,620
  7,099
  7,597
  8,114
  8,652
  9,212
  9,794
  10,400
  11,032
  11,689
  12,375
  13,090
  13,837
  14,616
  15,430
  16,280
  17,169
  18,099
Operating income, $m
  385
  474
  563
  658
  757
  862
  972
  1,087
  1,207
  1,332
  1,463
  1,814
  1,955
  2,102
  2,254
  2,412
  2,576
  2,747
  2,925
  3,109
  3,302
  3,502
  3,711
  3,929
  4,156
  4,393
  4,640
  4,899
  5,169
  5,451
  5,746
EBITDA, $m
  488
  723
  816
  915
  1,020
  1,130
  1,245
  1,366
  1,491
  1,622
  1,759
  1,901
  2,048
  2,202
  2,361
  2,526
  2,699
  2,877
  3,064
  3,257
  3,459
  3,669
  3,887
  4,116
  4,353
  4,602
  4,861
  5,131
  5,414
  5,710
  6,019
Interest expense (income), $m
  25
  46
  55
  64
  75
  85
  97
  108
  121
  134
  147
  161
  176
  191
  206
  223
  240
  257
  276
  295
  315
  335
  357
  379
  403
  427
  453
  479
  507
  536
  566
Earnings before tax, $m
  353
  428
  508
  593
  683
  777
  876
  979
  1,087
  1,199
  1,316
  1,653
  1,780
  1,911
  2,047
  2,189
  2,336
  2,489
  2,649
  2,815
  2,987
  3,167
  3,354
  3,549
  3,753
  3,966
  4,188
  4,419
  4,662
  4,915
  5,180
Tax expense, $m
  136
  116
  137
  160
  184
  210
  236
  264
  293
  324
  355
  446
  481
  516
  553
  591
  631
  672
  715
  760
  807
  855
  906
  958
  1,013
  1,071
  1,131
  1,193
  1,259
  1,327
  1,399
Net income, $m
  209
  312
  371
  433
  498
  567
  639
  715
  793
  875
  960
  1,207
  1,299
  1,395
  1,495
  1,598
  1,706
  1,817
  1,934
  2,055
  2,181
  2,312
  2,449
  2,591
  2,740
  2,895
  3,057
  3,226
  3,403
  3,588
  3,781

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,373
  3,744
  4,228
  4,741
  5,282
  5,851
  6,448
  7,071
  7,723
  8,401
  9,108
  9,843
  10,607
  11,401
  12,226
  13,083
  13,974
  14,901
  15,865
  16,867
  17,911
  18,998
  20,131
  21,312
  22,544
  23,830
  25,172
  26,573
  28,038
  29,569
  31,170
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,292
  3,744
  4,228
  4,741
  5,282
  5,851
  6,448
  7,071
  7,723
  8,401
  9,108
  9,843
  10,607
  11,401
  12,226
  13,083
  13,974
  14,901
  15,865
  16,867
  17,911
  18,998
  20,131
  21,312
  22,544
  23,830
  25,172
  26,573
  28,038
  29,569
  31,170
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
Average production assets, $m
  716
  813
  919
  1,030
  1,148
  1,271
  1,401
  1,536
  1,678
  1,825
  1,979
  2,138
  2,304
  2,477
  2,656
  2,842
  3,036
  3,237
  3,447
  3,665
  3,891
  4,128
  4,374
  4,630
  4,898
  5,177
  5,469
  5,773
  6,092
  6,424
  6,772
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -93
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -136
  -148
  -160
  -173
  -187
  -201
  -215
  -230
  -246
  -262
  -279
  -297
  -315
  -334
  -354
  -375
  -397
  -419
  -443
  -468
  -493
  -520
  -548
Total debt, $m
  1,348
  1,565
  1,839
  2,129
  2,436
  2,758
  3,095
  3,448
  3,817
  4,201
  4,601
  5,017
  5,449
  5,899
  6,366
  6,851
  7,355
  7,880
  8,425
  8,993
  9,584
  10,199
  10,840
  11,509
  12,206
  12,934
  13,693
  14,487
  15,316
  16,182
  17,088
Total liabilities, $m
  1,902
  2,119
  2,393
  2,683
  2,990
  3,312
  3,649
  4,002
  4,371
  4,755
  5,155
  5,571
  6,003
  6,453
  6,920
  7,405
  7,909
  8,434
  8,979
  9,547
  10,138
  10,753
  11,394
  12,063
  12,760
  13,488
  14,247
  15,041
  15,870
  16,736
  17,642
Total equity, $m
  1,471
  1,625
  1,835
  2,057
  2,292
  2,539
  2,798
  3,069
  3,352
  3,646
  3,953
  4,272
  4,603
  4,948
  5,306
  5,678
  6,065
  6,467
  6,885
  7,320
  7,773
  8,245
  8,737
  9,250
  9,784
  10,342
  10,925
  11,533
  12,169
  12,833
  13,528
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,373
  3,744
  4,228
  4,740
  5,282
  5,851
  6,447
  7,071
  7,723
  8,401
  9,108
  9,843
  10,606
  11,401
  12,226
  13,083
  13,974
  14,901
  15,864
  16,867
  17,911
  18,998
  20,131
  21,313
  22,544
  23,830
  25,172
  26,574
  28,039
  29,569
  31,170
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.916
  0.960
  1.000
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.422
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  209
  312
  371
  433
  498
  567
  639
  715
  793
  875
  960
  1,207
  1,299
  1,395
  1,495
  1,598
  1,706
  1,817
  1,934
  2,055
  2,181
  2,312
  2,449
  2,591
  2,740
  2,895
  3,057
  3,226
  3,403
  3,588
  3,781
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  103
  249
  253
  258
  263
  268
  273
  278
  284
  290
  296
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  122
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  187
  197
  209
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
Funds from operations, $m
  413
  562
  624
  691
  761
  835
  912
  993
  1,077
  1,165
  1,257
  1,293
  1,392
  1,495
  1,602
  1,713
  1,828
  1,948
  2,073
  2,202
  2,338
  2,478
  2,625
  2,778
  2,937
  3,104
  3,277
  3,459
  3,649
  3,847
  4,054
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  390
  570
  633
  700
  771
  845
  923
  1,004
  1,089
  1,177
  1,269
  1,306
  1,406
  1,509
  1,616
  1,728
  1,844
  1,964
  2,090
  2,220
  2,356
  2,497
  2,645
  2,799
  2,959
  3,126
  3,301
  3,484
  3,674
  3,874
  4,082
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -246
  -259
New CAPEX, $m
  -123
  -97
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -318
  -333
  -348
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -828
  -126
  -138
  -148
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -192
  -203
  -215
  -227
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -309
  -323
  -340
  -357
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -433
  -455
  -476
  -501
  -526
  -551
  -579
  -607
Free cash flow, $m
  -438
  443
  495
  552
  612
  675
  742
  812
  885
  962
  1,042
  1,067
  1,153
  1,243
  1,337
  1,434
  1,535
  1,640
  1,750
  1,863
  1,981
  2,104
  2,232
  2,366
  2,505
  2,650
  2,801
  2,959
  3,123
  3,296
  3,476
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  440
  255
  274
  290
  306
  322
  338
  353
  369
  384
  400
  416
  432
  449
  467
  485
  504
  524
  545
  568
  591
  615
  641
  668
  697
  728
  760
  793
  829
  867
  906
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  421
  255
  274
  290
  306
  322
  338
  353
  369
  384
  400
  416
  432
  449
  467
  485
  504
  524
  545
  568
  591
  615
  641
  668
  697
  728
  760
  793
  829
  867
  906
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -17
  699
  769
  842
  918
  997
  1,079
  1,165
  1,254
  1,346
  1,442
  1,483
  1,586
  1,693
  1,804
  1,920
  2,040
  2,165
  2,295
  2,431
  2,572
  2,720
  2,873
  3,034
  3,202
  3,377
  3,560
  3,752
  3,952
  4,162
  4,382
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -226
  -197
  -210
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -332
  -345
  -358
  -372
  -387
  -402
  -418
  -435
  -453
  -472
  -492
  -513
  -535
  -558
  -582
  -608
  -636
  -664
  -695
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  545
  559
  619
  683
  750
  820
  894
  971
  1,052
  1,135
  1,164
  1,254
  1,348
  1,446
  1,547
  1,653
  1,763
  1,877
  1,996
  2,119
  2,248
  2,382
  2,522
  2,667
  2,819
  2,978
  3,144
  3,317
  3,498
  3,687
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  509
  486
  497
  502
  501
  494
  481
  463
  439
  411
  361
  329
  295
  261
  227
  194
  162
  134
  108
  85
  66
  50
  37
  26
  19
  13
  8
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

VCA Inc. is an animal healthcare company operating in the United States and Canada. The Company operates through five segments: animal hospitals (Animal Hospital), veterinary diagnostic laboratories (Laboratory), veterinary medical technology (Medical Technology), Vetstreet and Camp Bow Wow Franchising, Inc. (Camp Bow Wow). Its Animal Hospital segment provides veterinary services for companion animals and sells related retail and pharmaceutical products. Its Laboratory segment provides diagnostic laboratory testing services for veterinarians. Its Medical Technology segment sells digital radiography and ultrasound imaging equipment; provides education and training on the use of that equipment; provides consulting and mobile imaging services, and sells software and ancillary services to the veterinary market. Its Vetstreet segment provides a range of services to the veterinary community. Its Camp Bow Wow business franchises a provider of pet services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  VCA (WOOF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.1
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 5.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 89.1%
Total Debt to Equity 91.6%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Equity 15.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Operating Margin 15.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 14%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

WOOF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WOOF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2517 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by VCA. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of VCA. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WOOF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for WOOF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of VCA, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of VCA.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WOOF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WOOF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for VCA.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for VCA. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WOOF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WOOF are equal to 28.4%.

Life of production assets of 24.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in VCA operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WOOF is equal to -2.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1471 million for VCA - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 81.189 million for VCA is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of VCA at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.5 billion.

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Financial statements of WOOF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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