Intrinsic value of Wheaton Precious Metals - WPM

Previous Close

$15.99

  Intrinsic Value

$2.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$15.99

 
Intrinsic value

$2.76

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WPM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  860
  880
  902
  928
  956
  987
  1,020
  1,057
  1,096
  1,138
  1,183
  1,231
  1,282
  1,337
  1,394
  1,455
  1,520
  1,588
  1,661
  1,737
  1,817
  1,902
  1,992
  2,086
  2,186
  2,290
  2,400
  2,516
  2,638
  2,766
Variable operating expenses, $m
  648
  663
  680
  700
  721
  744
  769
  797
  826
  858
  892
  928
  967
  1,008
  1,051
  1,097
  1,146
  1,198
  1,252
  1,310
  1,370
  1,434
  1,502
  1,573
  1,648
  1,727
  1,810
  1,897
  1,989
  2,086
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  648
  663
  680
  700
  721
  744
  769
  797
  826
  858
  892
  928
  967
  1,008
  1,051
  1,097
  1,146
  1,198
  1,252
  1,310
  1,370
  1,434
  1,502
  1,573
  1,648
  1,727
  1,810
  1,897
  1,989
  2,086
Operating income, $m
  212
  216
  222
  228
  235
  243
  251
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  315
  329
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  538
  563
  590
  619
  649
  680
EBITDA, $m
  212
  216
  222
  228
  235
  243
  251
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  315
  329
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  538
  563
  590
  619
  649
  680
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  42
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
Earnings before tax, $m
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  196
  202
  210
  217
  226
  235
  244
  255
  265
  277
  289
  302
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  395
  414
  434
  455
  477
  499
  524
  549
Tax expense, $m
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
Net income, $m
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  263
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  401

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,696
  5,827
  5,977
  6,145
  6,331
  6,535
  6,758
  6,999
  7,259
  7,537
  7,835
  8,153
  8,492
  8,852
  9,233
  9,638
  10,066
  10,519
  10,998
  11,503
  12,036
  12,599
  13,191
  13,816
  14,474
  15,166
  15,895
  16,662
  17,469
  18,318
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,696
  5,827
  5,977
  6,145
  6,331
  6,535
  6,758
  6,999
  7,259
  7,537
  7,835
  8,153
  8,492
  8,852
  9,233
  9,638
  10,066
  10,519
  10,998
  11,503
  12,036
  12,599
  13,191
  13,816
  14,474
  15,166
  15,895
  16,662
  17,469
  18,318
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Total debt, $m
  784
  802
  823
  847
  873
  901
  932
  966
  1,003
  1,042
  1,083
  1,128
  1,175
  1,226
  1,279
  1,336
  1,396
  1,459
  1,526
  1,597
  1,671
  1,750
  1,833
  1,921
  2,013
  2,110
  2,212
  2,319
  2,432
  2,551
Total liabilities, $m
  797
  816
  837
  860
  886
  915
  946
  980
  1,016
  1,055
  1,097
  1,141
  1,189
  1,239
  1,293
  1,349
  1,409
  1,473
  1,540
  1,610
  1,685
  1,764
  1,847
  1,934
  2,026
  2,123
  2,225
  2,333
  2,446
  2,564
Total equity, $m
  4,898
  5,011
  5,140
  5,285
  5,445
  5,620
  5,812
  6,019
  6,242
  6,482
  6,738
  7,012
  7,303
  7,612
  7,941
  8,289
  8,657
  9,047
  9,458
  9,893
  10,351
  10,835
  11,345
  11,882
  12,447
  13,043
  13,670
  14,329
  15,023
  15,753
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,695
  5,827
  5,977
  6,145
  6,331
  6,535
  6,758
  6,999
  7,258
  7,537
  7,835
  8,153
  8,492
  8,851
  9,234
  9,638
  10,066
  10,520
  10,998
  11,503
  12,036
  12,599
  13,192
  13,816
  14,473
  15,166
  15,895
  16,662
  17,469
  18,317
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  263
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  401
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  263
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  401
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  124
  127
  131
  134
  139
  143
  148
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  211
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  124
  127
  131
  134
  139
  143
  148
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  211
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  18
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  10
  22
  33
  44
  54
  64
  75
  85
  95
  105
  116
  126
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  195
  208
  221
  235
  249
  264
  279
  295
  312
  329
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  18
  21
  34
  48
  62
  75
  88
  100
  114
  127
  140
  152
  166
  179
  194
  208
  222
  238
  254
  270
  287
  304
  322
  341
  361
  381
  402
  425
  448
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  138
  146
  152
  168
  187
  205
  223
  241
  260
  279
  298
  318
  339
  360
  382
  405
  429
  454
  479
  506
  534
  563
  594
  625
  659
  693
  730
  768
  808
  850
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -85
  -113
  -129
  -145
  -160
  -176
  -191
  -207
  -223
  -240
  -256
  -273
  -291
  -309
  -328
  -348
  -368
  -390
  -412
  -435
  -459
  -484
  -510
  -537
  -566
  -596
  -627
  -660
  -694
  -730
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  139
  33
  23
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  133
  30
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.6
  99.2
  98.6
  98.0
  97.3
  96.5
  95.6
  94.7
  93.7
  92.7
  91.6
  90.6
  89.5
  88.3
  87.2
  86.0
  84.9
  83.7
  82.6
  81.4
  80.2
  79.1
  77.9
  76.8
  75.6
  74.5

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, formerly Silver Wheaton Corp, is a Canada-based pure precious metals streaming company engaged in the sale of silver and gold. The Company operates through eight segments: the silver produced by the San Dimas, Penasquito and Antamina mines, the gold produced by the Sudbury and Salobo mines, the silver and gold produced by the Constancia mine and the Other mines, and corporate operations. The Company has entered into long-term purchase agreements and early deposit long-term purchase agreement associated with silver and gold (precious metal purchase agreements), relating to mining assets, whereby Silver Wheaton acquires silver and gold production at various mines. The San Dimas gold-silver deposit is located in the San Dimas district on the border of Durango and Sinaloa states. The Company holds interest in Los Filos mine, Zinkgruvan mining operations, Stratoni mine, Keno Hill silver, Cozamin mine, Aljustrel mine, 777 mine and Constancia mines.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.2
Price to Sales 7.9
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -32.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -55.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 24.1%
Total Debt to Equity 24.1%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
EBITDA Margin 59.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
Operating Margin 25%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Net Profit Margin 21.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Effective Tax Rate -0.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Payout Ratio 40.5%

WPM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WPM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $843.215 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Wheaton Precious Metals. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Wheaton Precious Metals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WPM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WPM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Wheaton Precious Metals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Wheaton Precious Metals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WPM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WPM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Wheaton Precious Metals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Wheaton Precious Metals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WPM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WPM are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Wheaton Precious Metals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WPM is equal to -0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4899.664 million for Wheaton Precious Metals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 443.176 million for Wheaton Precious Metals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Wheaton Precious Metals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.1 billion.

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