Intrinsic value of W.R. Berkley - WRB

Previous Close

$74.64

  Intrinsic Value

$4.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$74.64

 
Intrinsic value

$4.20

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as WRB.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WRB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  7,839
  8,019
  8,225
  8,456
  8,713
  8,994
  9,300
  9,632
  9,989
  10,373
  10,783
  11,220
  11,686
  12,181
  12,707
  13,264
  13,853
  14,477
  15,135
  15,831
  16,564
  17,338
  18,154
  19,013
  19,919
  20,872
  21,875
  22,930
  24,041
  25,209
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,772
  6,927
  7,105
  7,304
  7,525
  7,767
  8,030
  8,316
  8,623
  8,953
  9,282
  9,658
  10,060
  10,486
  10,938
  11,417
  11,925
  12,461
  13,028
  13,627
  14,259
  14,925
  15,627
  16,367
  17,146
  17,966
  18,830
  19,738
  20,694
  21,700
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,772
  6,927
  7,105
  7,304
  7,525
  7,767
  8,030
  8,316
  8,623
  8,953
  9,282
  9,658
  10,060
  10,486
  10,938
  11,417
  11,925
  12,461
  13,028
  13,627
  14,259
  14,925
  15,627
  16,367
  17,146
  17,966
  18,830
  19,738
  20,694
  21,700
Operating income, $m
  1,067
  1,092
  1,120
  1,153
  1,188
  1,227
  1,270
  1,316
  1,366
  1,419
  1,501
  1,562
  1,627
  1,696
  1,769
  1,846
  1,928
  2,015
  2,107
  2,204
  2,306
  2,414
  2,527
  2,647
  2,773
  2,905
  3,045
  3,192
  3,347
  3,509
EBITDA, $m
  3,545
  3,627
  3,720
  3,825
  3,941
  4,068
  4,207
  4,357
  4,518
  4,692
  4,877
  5,075
  5,286
  5,510
  5,747
  5,999
  6,266
  6,548
  6,846
  7,160
  7,492
  7,842
  8,211
  8,600
  9,009
  9,440
  9,894
  10,371
  10,874
  11,402
Interest expense (income), $m
  137
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
  942
Earnings before tax, $m
  124
  149
  178
  210
  246
  285
  328
  374
  424
  477
  559
  620
  684
  753
  826
  904
  986
  1,073
  1,165
  1,261
  1,363
  1,471
  1,585
  1,704
  1,830
  1,963
  2,103
  2,250
  2,404
  2,567
Tax expense, $m
  34
  40
  48
  57
  66
  77
  88
  101
  114
  129
  151
  167
  185
  203
  223
  244
  266
  290
  314
  341
  368
  397
  428
  460
  494
  530
  568
  607
  649
  693
Net income, $m
  91
  109
  130
  153
  180
  208
  239
  273
  309
  348
  408
  452
  500
  550
  603
  660
  720
  783
  850
  921
  995
  1,074
  1,157
  1,244
  1,336
  1,433
  1,535
  1,642
  1,755
  1,874

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  24,543
  25,107
  25,753
  26,477
  27,280
  28,161
  29,120
  30,158
  31,276
  32,477
  33,761
  35,131
  36,590
  38,140
  39,785
  41,529
  43,375
  45,326
  47,388
  49,566
  51,863
  54,286
  56,840
  59,531
  62,365
  65,349
  68,490
  71,795
  75,272
  78,929
Working capital, $m
  -19,040
  -19,478
  -19,979
  -20,541
  -21,163
  -21,847
  -22,591
  -23,396
  -24,264
  -25,195
  -26,191
  -27,254
  -28,386
  -29,589
  -30,865
  -32,218
  -33,650
  -35,164
  -36,764
  -38,453
  -40,235
  -42,115
  -44,096
  -46,184
  -48,382
  -50,697
  -53,134
  -55,698
  -58,395
  -61,233
Total debt, $m
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
  17,451
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  109
  130
  153
  180
  208
  239
  273
  309
  348
  408
  452
  500
  550
  603
  660
  720
  783
  850
  921
  995
  1,074
  1,157
  1,244
  1,336
  1,433
  1,535
  1,642
  1,755
  1,874
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2,479
  2,535
  2,600
  2,672
  2,753
  2,841
  2,937
  3,040
  3,152
  3,272
  3,376
  3,513
  3,659
  3,814
  3,979
  4,153
  4,337
  4,533
  4,739
  4,957
  5,186
  5,429
  5,684
  5,953
  6,237
  6,535
  6,849
  7,179
  7,527
  7,893
Funds from operations, $m
  2,570
  2,644
  2,730
  2,826
  2,932
  3,049
  3,176
  3,313
  3,461
  3,620
  3,784
  3,965
  4,159
  4,364
  4,582
  4,813
  5,057
  5,316
  5,589
  5,877
  6,182
  6,503
  6,841
  7,197
  7,573
  7,968
  8,384
  8,822
  9,282
  9,767
Change in working capital, $m
  -373
  -438
  -501
  -562
  -623
  -683
  -744
  -805
  -868
  -931
  -996
  -1,063
  -1,132
  -1,203
  -1,276
  -1,353
  -1,432
  -1,514
  -1,600
  -1,689
  -1,782
  -1,880
  -1,981
  -2,088
  -2,199
  -2,315
  -2,437
  -2,564
  -2,697
  -2,837
Cash from operations, $m
  2,943
  3,082
  3,230
  3,388
  3,555
  3,732
  3,920
  4,119
  4,329
  4,552
  4,780
  5,028
  5,290
  5,567
  5,858
  6,165
  6,489
  6,830
  7,189
  7,567
  7,964
  8,382
  8,822
  9,285
  9,771
  10,283
  10,821
  11,386
  11,980
  12,604
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2,406
  -2,454
  -2,511
  -2,575
  -2,648
  -2,728
  -2,816
  -2,912
  -3,016
  -3,128
  -3,248
  -3,376
  -3,513
  -3,659
  -3,814
  -3,979
  -4,153
  -4,337
  -4,533
  -4,739
  -4,957
  -5,186
  -5,429
  -5,684
  -5,953
  -6,237
  -6,535
  -6,849
  -7,179
  -7,527
New CAPEX, $m
  -481
  -564
  -645
  -724
  -803
  -881
  -959
  -1,038
  -1,118
  -1,200
  -1,284
  -1,370
  -1,459
  -1,550
  -1,645
  -1,744
  -1,846
  -1,952
  -2,062
  -2,177
  -2,298
  -2,423
  -2,554
  -2,691
  -2,834
  -2,984
  -3,141
  -3,305
  -3,477
  -3,657
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2,887
  -3,018
  -3,156
  -3,299
  -3,451
  -3,609
  -3,775
  -3,950
  -4,134
  -4,328
  -4,532
  -4,746
  -4,972
  -5,209
  -5,459
  -5,723
  -5,999
  -6,289
  -6,595
  -6,916
  -7,255
  -7,609
  -7,983
  -8,375
  -8,787
  -9,221
  -9,676
  -10,154
  -10,656
  -11,184
Free cash flow, $m
  56
  63
  74
  88
  104
  123
  145
  169
  195
  224
  248
  282
  318
  357
  399
  443
  491
  541
  594
  650
  710
  773
  840
  910
  984
  1,062
  1,145
  1,232
  1,323
  1,419
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  56
  63
  74
  88
  104
  123
  145
  169
  195
  224
  248
  282
  318
  357
  399
  443
  491
  541
  594
  650
  710
  773
  840
  910
  984
  1,062
  1,145
  1,232
  1,323
  1,419
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
Cash available for distribution, $m
  56
  63
  74
  88
  104
  123
  145
  169
  195
  224
  248
  282
  318
  357
  399
  443
  491
  541
  594
  650
  710
  773
  840
  910
  984
  1,062
  1,145
  1,232
  1,323
  1,419
Discount rate, %
  14.80
  15.54
  16.32
  17.13
  17.99
  18.89
  19.83
  20.83
  21.87
  22.96
  24.11
  25.31
  26.58
  27.91
  29.30
  30.77
  32.31
  33.92
  35.62
  37.40
  39.27
  41.23
  43.29
  45.46
  47.73
  50.12
  52.62
  55.26
  58.02
  60.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  49
  48
  47
  47
  46
  44
  41
  37
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

W. R. Berkley Corporation is an insurance holding company. It operates through two segments: Insurance and Reinsurance-Global. The Insurance segment consists of its commercial insurance business operations, comprising excess and surplus lines, and admitted lines, throughout the United States, as well as its insurance business operations in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, South America, Canada, Mexico, Scandinavia, Asia and Australia. Its Insurance segment comprises business units, such as Acadia Insurance, American Mining Insurance Group, Berkley Accident and Health, Berkley Agribusiness Risk Specialists, Berkley Aviation and Berkley Canada. Reinsurance consists of its reinsurance business on a facultative and treaty basis, in the United States, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Australia, the Asia-Pacific region and South Africa. Its Reinsurance segment comprises business units, such as Berkley Re America, Berkley Re Asia Pacific, Berkley Re Direct and Berkley Re UK.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  W.R. Berkley (WRB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 49.3%
Total Debt to Equity 49.3%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Equity 12.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 14.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Operating Margin 13.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 32.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
Payout Ratio 30.6%

WRB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WRB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7685 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by W.R. Berkley. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of W.R. Berkley. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WRB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.8%, whose default value for WRB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of W.R. Berkley, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of W.R. Berkley.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WRB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WRB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for W.R. Berkley.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for W.R. Berkley. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WRB stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WRB are equal to 313.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in W.R. Berkley operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WRB is equal to -242.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for W.R. Berkley - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 122 million for W.R. Berkley is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of W.R. Berkley at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating

COMPANY NEWS

▶ 6 Stocks That Can Soar With The Dollar   [May-09-18 02:30PM  Investopedia]
▶ W.R. Berkley: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-24-18 05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ W.R. Berkley beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Jan-30-18 04:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Correction: Earns-W.R. Berkley story   [Oct-25-17 02:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ W.R. Berkley misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-24-17 04:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ W.R. Berkley misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-25-17 09:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to W.R. Berkley Corp. : June 1, 2017   [Jun-01-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ W.R. Berkley misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-24-17 05:28PM  Associated Press]
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