Intrinsic value of Williams-Sonoma - WSM

Previous Close

$61.58

  Intrinsic Value

$53.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-13%

Previous close

$61.58

 
Intrinsic value

$53.51

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of WSM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  5,509
  5,740
  5,985
  6,245
  6,520
  6,812
  7,120
  7,445
  7,788
  8,151
  8,533
  8,935
  9,359
  9,806
  10,276
  10,771
  11,291
  11,839
  12,415
  13,020
  13,657
  14,327
  15,030
  15,770
  16,547
  17,364
  18,222
  19,123
  20,070
  21,065
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,997
  5,206
  5,428
  5,664
  5,914
  6,178
  6,458
  6,753
  7,064
  7,393
  7,739
  8,104
  8,489
  8,894
  9,320
  9,769
  10,241
  10,738
  11,260
  11,809
  12,387
  12,994
  13,632
  14,303
  15,008
  15,749
  16,527
  17,345
  18,204
  19,106
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,997
  5,206
  5,428
  5,664
  5,914
  6,178
  6,458
  6,753
  7,064
  7,393
  7,739
  8,104
  8,489
  8,894
  9,320
  9,769
  10,241
  10,738
  11,260
  11,809
  12,387
  12,994
  13,632
  14,303
  15,008
  15,749
  16,527
  17,345
  18,204
  19,106
Operating income, $m
  512
  534
  557
  581
  606
  633
  662
  692
  724
  758
  794
  831
  870
  912
  956
  1,002
  1,050
  1,101
  1,155
  1,211
  1,270
  1,332
  1,398
  1,467
  1,539
  1,615
  1,695
  1,778
  1,867
  1,959
EBITDA, $m
  609
  634
  661
  690
  720
  753
  787
  823
  861
  901
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,084
  1,135
  1,190
  1,248
  1,308
  1,372
  1,439
  1,509
  1,583
  1,661
  1,743
  1,828
  1,919
  2,013
  2,113
  2,218
  2,328
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  16
  20
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  185
  198
  211
  225
  239
  255
Earnings before tax, $m
  496
  514
  533
  553
  575
  597
  621
  647
  673
  702
  731
  762
  795
  830
  867
  905
  945
  988
  1,033
  1,080
  1,129
  1,181
  1,236
  1,293
  1,354
  1,417
  1,484
  1,554
  1,627
  1,704
Tax expense, $m
  134
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  365
  383
  401
  419
  439
  460
Net income, $m
  362
  375
  389
  404
  420
  436
  454
  472
  492
  512
  534
  557
  581
  606
  633
  661
  690
  721
  754
  788
  824
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,034
  1,083
  1,134
  1,188
  1,244

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,899
  3,021
  3,150
  3,287
  3,432
  3,585
  3,747
  3,918
  4,099
  4,290
  4,491
  4,703
  4,926
  5,161
  5,408
  5,669
  5,943
  6,231
  6,534
  6,853
  7,188
  7,540
  7,911
  8,300
  8,709
  9,139
  9,590
  10,065
  10,563
  11,087
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,899
  3,021
  3,150
  3,287
  3,432
  3,585
  3,747
  3,918
  4,099
  4,290
  4,491
  4,703
  4,926
  5,161
  5,408
  5,669
  5,943
  6,231
  6,534
  6,853
  7,188
  7,540
  7,911
  8,300
  8,709
  9,139
  9,590
  10,065
  10,563
  11,087
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
Average production assets, $m
  964
  1,004
  1,047
  1,093
  1,141
  1,192
  1,246
  1,303
  1,363
  1,426
  1,493
  1,564
  1,638
  1,716
  1,798
  1,885
  1,976
  2,072
  2,173
  2,279
  2,390
  2,507
  2,630
  2,760
  2,896
  3,039
  3,189
  3,347
  3,512
  3,686
Working capital, $m
  628
  654
  682
  712
  743
  777
  812
  849
  888
  929
  973
  1,019
  1,067
  1,118
  1,171
  1,228
  1,287
  1,350
  1,415
  1,484
  1,557
  1,633
  1,713
  1,798
  1,886
  1,979
  2,077
  2,180
  2,288
  2,401
Total debt, $m
  365
  434
  507
  585
  667
  754
  846
  943
  1,046
  1,154
  1,268
  1,389
  1,516
  1,649
  1,790
  1,938
  2,093
  2,257
  2,429
  2,610
  2,800
  3,001
  3,211
  3,432
  3,664
  3,908
  4,165
  4,434
  4,718
  5,015
Total liabilities, $m
  1,647
  1,716
  1,789
  1,867
  1,949
  2,036
  2,128
  2,226
  2,328
  2,437
  2,551
  2,671
  2,798
  2,931
  3,072
  3,220
  3,375
  3,539
  3,711
  3,892
  4,083
  4,283
  4,493
  4,714
  4,947
  5,191
  5,447
  5,717
  6,000
  6,297
Total equity, $m
  1,253
  1,305
  1,361
  1,420
  1,483
  1,549
  1,619
  1,693
  1,771
  1,853
  1,940
  2,032
  2,128
  2,230
  2,336
  2,449
  2,567
  2,692
  2,823
  2,960
  3,105
  3,257
  3,417
  3,586
  3,762
  3,948
  4,143
  4,348
  4,563
  4,790
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,900
  3,021
  3,150
  3,287
  3,432
  3,585
  3,747
  3,919
  4,099
  4,290
  4,491
  4,703
  4,926
  5,161
  5,408
  5,669
  5,942
  6,231
  6,534
  6,852
  7,188
  7,540
  7,910
  8,300
  8,709
  9,139
  9,590
  10,065
  10,563
  11,087
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.290
  0.330
  0.370
  0.410
  0.450
  0.490
  0.520
  0.560
  0.590
  0.620
  0.650
  0.680
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  362
  375
  389
  404
  420
  436
  454
  472
  492
  512
  534
  557
  581
  606
  633
  661
  690
  721
  754
  788
  824
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,034
  1,083
  1,134
  1,188
  1,244
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  188
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  304
  319
  335
  351
  369
Funds from operations, $m
  459
  476
  494
  513
  534
  555
  578
  602
  628
  655
  683
  713
  744
  778
  812
  849
  888
  928
  971
  1,016
  1,063
  1,113
  1,165
  1,220
  1,278
  1,338
  1,402
  1,469
  1,539
  1,613
Change in working capital, $m
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
Cash from operations, $m
  434
  449
  466
  484
  502
  522
  543
  565
  589
  613
  640
  667
  696
  727
  759
  793
  828
  866
  905
  947
  991
  1,037
  1,085
  1,136
  1,189
  1,245
  1,304
  1,366
  1,431
  1,499
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -351
New CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -210
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -279
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -392
  -412
  -433
  -454
  -477
  -501
  -525
Free cash flow, $m
  305
  313
  323
  333
  345
  357
  370
  384
  398
  414
  430
  447
  466
  485
  505
  526
  549
  573
  598
  624
  651
  680
  711
  743
  777
  813
  850
  889
  931
  974
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  127
  133
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  257
  270
  283
  297
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  127
  133
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  257
  270
  283
  297
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  370
  382
  396
  411
  427
  444
  462
  481
  501
  522
  544
  568
  592
  618
  646
  674
  704
  736
  770
  805
  842
  881
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,057
  1,107
  1,159
  1,214
  1,271
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
Cash available for distribution, $m
  321
  329
  340
  352
  365
  378
  392
  407
  423
  440
  457
  476
  496
  517
  539
  562
  586
  612
  639
  667
  697
  728
  761
  796
  833
  871
  911
  954
  998
  1,045
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  308
  301
  296
  290
  283
  274
  265
  254
  243
  231
  217
  203
  189
  173
  158
  143
  128
  113
  98
  85
  72
  60
  50
  41
  32
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. is a multi-channel specialty retailer of products for the home. The Company operates retail stores in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, Australia and the United Kingdom. It operates through two segments: e-commerce and retail. The e-commerce segment has various merchandising strategies, such as Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, West Elm, PBteen, Williams-Sonoma Home, Rejuvenation and Mark and Graham, which sell its products through the Company's e-commerce Websites and direct-mail catalogs. The retail segment has various merchandising strategies, such as Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, West Elm and Rejuvenation, which sell its products through the Company's retail stores. The Company franchises its brands to third parties in a number of countries in the Middle East, the Philippines and Mexico. The Company's products are also available to customers through its catalogs and online across the world.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.6
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 237
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Total Capital 24.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Return On Equity 24.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 9.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Effective Tax Rate 35.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 43.9%

WSM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WSM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5292 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Williams-Sonoma. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of Williams-Sonoma. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WSM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WSM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Williams-Sonoma, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Williams-Sonoma.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WSM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WSM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Williams-Sonoma.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Williams-Sonoma. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WSM stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WSM are equal to 17.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Williams-Sonoma operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WSM is equal to 11.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1204 million for Williams-Sonoma - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86 million for Williams-Sonoma is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Williams-Sonoma at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.3 billion.

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