Intrinsic value of West Pharmaceutical Services - WST

Previous Close

$99.61

  Intrinsic Value

$34.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$99.61

 
Intrinsic value

$34.77

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  1,695
  1,795
  1,899
  2,008
  2,122
  2,240
  2,364
  2,494
  2,629
  2,771
  2,919
  3,074
  3,236
  3,406
  3,585
  3,771
  3,967
  4,172
  4,386
  4,612
  4,848
  5,096
  5,355
  5,628
  5,914
  6,214
  6,528
  6,859
  7,205
  7,569
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,089
  1,153
  1,219
  1,288
  1,360
  1,435
  1,514
  1,596
  1,682
  1,772
  1,853
  1,952
  2,055
  2,163
  2,276
  2,394
  2,519
  2,649
  2,785
  2,928
  3,078
  3,235
  3,400
  3,573
  3,755
  3,945
  4,145
  4,355
  4,575
  4,806
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  357
  365
  373
  381
  389
  398
  406
  415
  425
  434
  443
  453
  463
  473
  484
  494
  505
  516
  528
  539
  551
  563
  576
  588
  601
  615
  628
  642
  656
  670
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,446
  1,518
  1,592
  1,669
  1,749
  1,833
  1,920
  2,011
  2,107
  2,206
  2,296
  2,405
  2,518
  2,636
  2,760
  2,888
  3,024
  3,165
  3,313
  3,467
  3,629
  3,798
  3,976
  4,161
  4,356
  4,560
  4,773
  4,997
  5,231
  5,476
Operating income, $m
  249
  278
  308
  339
  373
  407
  444
  482
  522
  565
  622
  669
  718
  770
  825
  882
  943
  1,007
  1,074
  1,144
  1,219
  1,297
  1,379
  1,466
  1,558
  1,654
  1,755
  1,862
  1,974
  2,093
EBITDA, $m
  362
  397
  433
  471
  511
  553
  596
  642
  691
  741
  795
  851
  910
  972
  1,037
  1,105
  1,177
  1,253
  1,333
  1,417
  1,505
  1,598
  1,696
  1,799
  1,907
  2,021
  2,141
  2,267
  2,400
  2,540
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
Earnings before tax, $m
  239
  265
  293
  323
  354
  386
  420
  456
  494
  534
  588
  632
  679
  727
  779
  833
  889
  949
  1,012
  1,079
  1,149
  1,222
  1,300
  1,382
  1,468
  1,558
  1,654
  1,754
  1,860
  1,972
Tax expense, $m
  64
  72
  79
  87
  96
  104
  114
  123
  133
  144
  159
  171
  183
  196
  210
  225
  240
  256
  273
  291
  310
  330
  351
  373
  396
  421
  447
  474
  502
  532
Net income, $m
  174
  194
  214
  236
  258
  282
  307
  333
  361
  390
  430
  462
  495
  531
  568
  608
  649
  693
  739
  787
  839
  892
  949
  1,009
  1,071
  1,138
  1,207
  1,281
  1,358
  1,439

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,975
  2,092
  2,214
  2,340
  2,473
  2,611
  2,755
  2,906
  3,064
  3,229
  3,402
  3,583
  3,772
  3,970
  4,178
  4,395
  4,623
  4,862
  5,112
  5,375
  5,650
  5,939
  6,242
  6,559
  6,893
  7,242
  7,609
  7,994
  8,398
  8,822
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,975
  2,092
  2,214
  2,340
  2,473
  2,611
  2,755
  2,906
  3,064
  3,229
  3,402
  3,583
  3,772
  3,970
  4,178
  4,395
  4,623
  4,862
  5,112
  5,375
  5,650
  5,939
  6,242
  6,559
  6,893
  7,242
  7,609
  7,994
  8,398
  8,822
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
  0.858
Average production assets, $m
  1,002
  1,061
  1,122
  1,187
  1,254
  1,324
  1,397
  1,474
  1,554
  1,637
  1,725
  1,817
  1,913
  2,013
  2,118
  2,229
  2,344
  2,465
  2,592
  2,726
  2,865
  3,012
  3,165
  3,326
  3,495
  3,672
  3,858
  4,053
  4,258
  4,473
Working capital, $m
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  113
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  155
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  211
  221
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  313
  329
  346
  363
Total debt, $m
  233
  269
  307
  347
  388
  431
  477
  524
  573
  625
  679
  736
  795
  857
  922
  990
  1,061
  1,136
  1,214
  1,297
  1,383
  1,473
  1,568
  1,667
  1,772
  1,881
  1,996
  2,116
  2,243
  2,375
Total liabilities, $m
  618
  655
  693
  733
  774
  817
  862
  910
  959
  1,011
  1,065
  1,121
  1,181
  1,243
  1,308
  1,376
  1,447
  1,522
  1,600
  1,682
  1,769
  1,859
  1,954
  2,053
  2,157
  2,267
  2,382
  2,502
  2,628
  2,761
Total equity, $m
  1,357
  1,437
  1,521
  1,608
  1,699
  1,794
  1,893
  1,997
  2,105
  2,219
  2,337
  2,461
  2,591
  2,728
  2,870
  3,020
  3,176
  3,340
  3,512
  3,693
  3,882
  4,080
  4,288
  4,506
  4,735
  4,975
  5,227
  5,492
  5,769
  6,060
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,975
  2,092
  2,214
  2,341
  2,473
  2,611
  2,755
  2,907
  3,064
  3,230
  3,402
  3,582
  3,772
  3,971
  4,178
  4,396
  4,623
  4,862
  5,112
  5,375
  5,651
  5,939
  6,242
  6,559
  6,892
  7,242
  7,609
  7,994
  8,397
  8,821
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687
  0.687

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  174
  194
  214
  236
  258
  282
  307
  333
  361
  390
  430
  462
  495
  531
  568
  608
  649
  693
  739
  787
  839
  892
  949
  1,009
  1,071
  1,138
  1,207
  1,281
  1,358
  1,439
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  160
  168
  177
  173
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  234
  247
  259
  273
  287
  301
  317
  333
  350
  367
  386
  405
  426
  447
Funds from operations, $m
  287
  313
  339
  367
  397
  427
  460
  493
  529
  566
  602
  643
  687
  732
  780
  831
  884
  940
  998
  1,060
  1,125
  1,193
  1,265
  1,341
  1,421
  1,505
  1,593
  1,686
  1,784
  1,887
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  283
  308
  334
  362
  391
  422
  454
  487
  522
  560
  595
  636
  679
  724
  772
  822
  874
  930
  988
  1,049
  1,114
  1,182
  1,253
  1,328
  1,407
  1,490
  1,578
  1,670
  1,767
  1,869
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -247
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -301
  -317
  -333
  -350
  -367
  -386
  -405
  -426
New CAPEX, $m
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -176
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -217
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -355
  -374
  -392
  -413
  -433
  -455
  -478
  -502
  -527
  -553
  -581
  -610
  -641
Free cash flow, $m
  131
  149
  167
  185
  205
  226
  248
  271
  295
  320
  344
  372
  401
  432
  465
  500
  536
  574
  614
  657
  702
  749
  798
  851
  906
  964
  1,025
  1,089
  1,157
  1,228
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  36
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  133
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  36
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  133
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  166
  185
  205
  225
  247
  269
  293
  318
  344
  372
  398
  428
  460
  494
  530
  568
  607
  649
  693
  739
  788
  839
  893
  950
  1,010
  1,073
  1,140
  1,210
  1,283
  1,361
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -291
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
Cash available for distribution, $m
  89
  105
  121
  138
  156
  174
  194
  214
  236
  259
  279
  304
  330
  358
  387
  418
  451
  485
  521
  559
  599
  641
  685
  732
  781
  833
  888
  945
  1,006
  1,070
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  86
  96
  105
  114
  121
  127
  131
  134
  136
  136
  133
  130
  126
  120
  114
  106
  98
  89
  80
  71
  62
  53
  45
  37
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. is a manufacturer of packaging components and delivery systems for injectable drugs and healthcare products. The Company's products include vial containment solutions, prefillable systems, self-injection platforms, cartridge systems and components, reconstitution and transfer systems, intradermal delivery solutions, specialty components, and contract manufacturing and analytical services. The Company's segments include Proprietary Products and Contract-Manufactured Products. The Proprietary Products segment develops commercial and operational strategies across its global network, with specific emphasis on product offerings to biologic, generic and pharmaceutical drug customers. The Contract-Manufactured Products segment serves as an integrated business focused on the design, manufacture and automated assembly of various devices, primarily for pharmaceutical, diagnostic and medical device customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 50.6
Price to Sales 4.8
Price to Book 6.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 33.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 148.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 102
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 20.3%
Total Debt to Equity 20.5%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Total Capital 10.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
EBITDA Margin 19.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Operating Margin 13.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Net Profit Margin 9.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 28.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
Payout Ratio 25%

WST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1599 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by West Pharmaceutical Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of West Pharmaceutical Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of West Pharmaceutical Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of West Pharmaceutical Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $349 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for West Pharmaceutical Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for West Pharmaceutical Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WST stock is equal to 1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WST are equal to 59.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in West Pharmaceutical Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WST is equal to 4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1280 million for West Pharmaceutical Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74 million for West Pharmaceutical Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of West Pharmaceutical Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ West Appoints Bernard Birkett to Chief Financial Officer   [Jun-21-18 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ West Pharmaceutical: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ West Announces First-Quarter 2018 Results   [06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ West to Host First-Quarter 2018 Conference Call   [Apr-12-18 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ West Pharmaceutical beats 4Q profit forecasts   [06:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ West Announces Upcoming Investor Conference   [Nov-15-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ West Pharmaceutical tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-26-17 08:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ West Announces Third-Quarter 2017 Results   [07:10AM  PR Newswire]
▶ West to Host Third-Quarter 2017 Conference Call   [Oct-12-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ West Announces Fall Investor Conference Schedule   [Aug-25-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ West Pharmaceutical misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-27-17 02:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ West Announces Increase to Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-20-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ West Elects New Director to the Board   [Jun-01-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why West Pharmaceutical Services Is Rising Today   [Apr-27-17 04:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ West Pharmaceutical tops Street 1Q forecasts   [08:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ West Announces First-Quarter 2017 Results   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ West to Host First-Quarter 2017 Conference Call   [Apr-13-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
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