Intrinsic value of Weight Watchers International - WTW

Previous Close

$47.80

  Intrinsic Value

$26.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-44%

Previous close

$47.80

 
Intrinsic value

$26.82

 
Up/down potential

-44%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WTW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.90
  18.41
  17.07
  15.86
  14.78
  13.80
  12.92
  12.13
  11.41
  10.77
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.48
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
Revenue, $m
  1,567
  1,855
  2,172
  2,517
  2,889
  3,287
  3,712
  4,162
  4,637
  5,137
  5,660
  6,208
  6,780
  7,375
  7,995
  8,640
  9,311
  10,008
  10,732
  11,485
  12,267
  13,080
  13,926
  14,807
  15,723
  16,677
  17,672
  18,708
  19,790
  20,918
Variable operating expenses, $m
  815
  947
  1,092
  1,250
  1,421
  1,604
  1,799
  2,005
  2,223
  2,452
  2,597
  2,848
  3,110
  3,384
  3,668
  3,964
  4,272
  4,592
  4,924
  5,269
  5,628
  6,001
  6,389
  6,793
  7,213
  7,651
  8,107
  8,583
  9,079
  9,597
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  361
  369
  377
  385
  394
  402
  411
  420
  429
  439
  448
  458
  468
  479
  489
  500
  511
  522
  534
  545
  557
  570
  582
  595
  608
  622
  635
  649
  664
  678
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,176
  1,316
  1,469
  1,635
  1,815
  2,006
  2,210
  2,425
  2,652
  2,891
  3,045
  3,306
  3,578
  3,863
  4,157
  4,464
  4,783
  5,114
  5,458
  5,814
  6,185
  6,571
  6,971
  7,388
  7,821
  8,273
  8,742
  9,232
  9,743
  10,275
Operating income, $m
  392
  540
  703
  881
  1,074
  1,281
  1,502
  1,737
  1,985
  2,245
  2,615
  2,901
  3,201
  3,513
  3,838
  4,176
  4,528
  4,894
  5,275
  5,670
  6,082
  6,510
  6,955
  7,418
  7,901
  8,404
  8,929
  9,476
  10,047
  10,643
EBITDA, $m
  519
  673
  843
  1,028
  1,229
  1,444
  1,674
  1,918
  2,175
  2,446
  2,731
  3,028
  3,339
  3,664
  4,001
  4,353
  4,719
  5,099
  5,494
  5,905
  6,333
  6,777
  7,240
  7,721
  8,223
  8,745
  9,290
  9,859
  10,452
  11,071
Interest expense (income), $m
  89
  108
  53
  68
  84
  102
  120
  141
  162
  185
  209
  234
  261
  288
  317
  347
  379
  411
  445
  481
  517
  555
  595
  636
  679
  724
  770
  818
  869
  921
  976
Earnings before tax, $m
  284
  486
  635
  797
  973
  1,161
  1,362
  1,575
  1,800
  2,037
  2,381
  2,641
  2,912
  3,196
  3,491
  3,797
  4,117
  4,449
  4,794
  5,153
  5,526
  5,914
  6,319
  6,739
  7,178
  7,634
  8,111
  8,607
  9,126
  9,667
Tax expense, $m
  77
  131
  171
  215
  263
  313
  368
  425
  486
  550
  643
  713
  786
  863
  942
  1,025
  1,112
  1,201
  1,294
  1,391
  1,492
  1,597
  1,706
  1,820
  1,938
  2,061
  2,190
  2,324
  2,464
  2,610
Net income, $m
  207
  355
  464
  582
  710
  847
  994
  1,150
  1,314
  1,487
  1,738
  1,928
  2,126
  2,333
  2,548
  2,772
  3,005
  3,248
  3,500
  3,762
  4,034
  4,318
  4,613
  4,920
  5,240
  5,573
  5,921
  6,283
  6,662
  7,057

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,494
  1,769
  2,071
  2,399
  2,754
  3,134
  3,538
  3,968
  4,420
  4,897
  5,396
  5,918
  6,463
  7,031
  7,622
  8,237
  8,876
  9,540
  10,231
  10,948
  11,694
  12,469
  13,276
  14,115
  14,988
  15,898
  16,846
  17,834
  18,865
  19,941
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,494
  1,769
  2,071
  2,399
  2,754
  3,134
  3,538
  3,968
  4,420
  4,897
  5,396
  5,918
  6,463
  7,031
  7,622
  8,237
  8,876
  9,540
  10,231
  10,948
  11,694
  12,469
  13,276
  14,115
  14,988
  15,898
  16,846
  17,834
  18,865
  19,941
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
Average production assets, $m
  638
  755
  884
  1,024
  1,176
  1,338
  1,511
  1,694
  1,887
  2,091
  2,304
  2,527
  2,759
  3,002
  3,254
  3,517
  3,790
  4,073
  4,368
  4,674
  4,993
  5,324
  5,668
  6,026
  6,399
  6,788
  7,192
  7,614
  8,054
  8,514
Working capital, $m
  -161
  -191
  -224
  -259
  -298
  -339
  -382
  -429
  -478
  -529
  -583
  -639
  -698
  -760
  -824
  -890
  -959
  -1,031
  -1,105
  -1,183
  -1,264
  -1,347
  -1,434
  -1,525
  -1,619
  -1,718
  -1,820
  -1,927
  -2,038
  -2,155
Total debt, $m
  906
  1,153
  1,425
  1,721
  2,040
  2,382
  2,746
  3,132
  3,540
  3,968
  4,418
  4,887
  5,378
  5,889
  6,421
  6,975
  7,550
  8,148
  8,769
  9,415
  10,086
  10,784
  11,510
  12,265
  13,051
  13,870
  14,723
  15,612
  16,540
  17,508
Total liabilities, $m
  1,344
  1,592
  1,864
  2,159
  2,478
  2,820
  3,185
  3,571
  3,978
  4,407
  4,856
  5,326
  5,817
  6,328
  6,860
  7,413
  7,989
  8,586
  9,208
  9,854
  10,525
  11,222
  11,948
  12,703
  13,490
  14,308
  15,162
  16,051
  16,979
  17,947
Total equity, $m
  149
  177
  207
  240
  275
  313
  354
  397
  442
  490
  540
  592
  646
  703
  762
  824
  888
  954
  1,023
  1,095
  1,169
  1,247
  1,328
  1,411
  1,499
  1,590
  1,685
  1,783
  1,887
  1,994
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,493
  1,769
  2,071
  2,399
  2,753
  3,133
  3,539
  3,968
  4,420
  4,897
  5,396
  5,918
  6,463
  7,031
  7,622
  8,237
  8,877
  9,540
  10,231
  10,949
  11,694
  12,469
  13,276
  14,114
  14,989
  15,898
  16,847
  17,834
  18,866
  19,941
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.060
  6.520
  6.880
  7.170
  7.410
  7.600
  7.760
  7.890
  8.010
  8.100
  8.190
  8.260
  8.320
  8.380
  8.420
  8.470
  8.510
  8.540
  8.570
  8.600
  8.620
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  207
  355
  464
  582
  710
  847
  994
  1,150
  1,314
  1,487
  1,738
  1,928
  2,126
  2,333
  2,548
  2,772
  3,005
  3,248
  3,500
  3,762
  4,034
  4,318
  4,613
  4,920
  5,240
  5,573
  5,921
  6,283
  6,662
  7,057
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  128
  134
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  116
  127
  139
  151
  164
  177
  190
  205
  219
  235
  251
  268
  285
  303
  322
  341
  361
  383
  405
  428
Funds from operations, $m
  335
  489
  604
  729
  865
  1,010
  1,166
  1,330
  1,504
  1,687
  1,854
  2,055
  2,265
  2,484
  2,712
  2,949
  3,196
  3,452
  3,719
  3,996
  4,285
  4,585
  4,897
  5,223
  5,561
  5,914
  6,282
  6,666
  7,067
  7,485
Change in working capital, $m
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
Cash from operations, $m
  362
  518
  636
  765
  903
  1,051
  1,209
  1,377
  1,553
  1,739
  1,908
  2,111
  2,324
  2,545
  2,775
  3,015
  3,265
  3,524
  3,794
  4,074
  4,366
  4,669
  4,985
  5,313
  5,656
  6,012
  6,385
  6,773
  7,178
  7,601
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -59
  -67
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -105
  -116
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -164
  -177
  -190
  -205
  -219
  -235
  -251
  -268
  -285
  -303
  -322
  -341
  -361
  -383
  -405
New CAPEX, $m
  -106
  -117
  -129
  -140
  -151
  -162
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -306
  -318
  -331
  -344
  -358
  -373
  -388
  -405
  -422
  -440
  -459
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -133
  -149
  -167
  -184
  -202
  -221
  -240
  -259
  -278
  -298
  -318
  -339
  -360
  -381
  -403
  -427
  -450
  -474
  -500
  -525
  -553
  -582
  -612
  -643
  -676
  -710
  -746
  -783
  -823
  -864
Free cash flow, $m
  229
  369
  469
  580
  700
  830
  969
  1,118
  1,275
  1,441
  1,589
  1,773
  1,964
  2,164
  2,372
  2,589
  2,815
  3,050
  3,294
  3,548
  3,812
  4,087
  4,373
  4,670
  4,980
  5,303
  5,639
  5,989
  6,355
  6,737
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -918
  248
  272
  296
  319
  342
  364
  386
  408
  429
  449
  470
  490
  511
  532
  553
  575
  598
  621
  646
  671
  698
  726
  755
  786
  819
  853
  889
  928
  968
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  958
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  40
  248
  272
  296
  319
  342
  364
  386
  408
  429
  449
  470
  490
  511
  532
  553
  575
  598
  621
  646
  671
  698
  726
  755
  786
  819
  853
  889
  928
  968
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  269
  616
  741
  876
  1,019
  1,172
  1,334
  1,504
  1,682
  1,869
  2,039
  2,242
  2,454
  2,675
  2,904
  3,143
  3,390
  3,648
  3,916
  4,194
  4,483
  4,785
  5,099
  5,425
  5,766
  6,121
  6,492
  6,879
  7,283
  7,705
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,165
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -896
  589
  711
  843
  984
  1,134
  1,293
  1,461
  1,637
  1,822
  1,989
  2,190
  2,400
  2,618
  2,845
  3,081
  3,326
  3,581
  3,847
  4,122
  4,409
  4,707
  5,018
  5,341
  5,679
  6,030
  6,397
  6,780
  7,180
  7,598
Discount rate, %
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -786
  448
  462
  462
  448
  423
  388
  347
  301
  255
  208
  167
  130
  99
  72
  52
  36
  24
  15
  10
  6
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Weight Watchers International, Inc. is a provider of weight management services. The Company operates globally through a network of Company-owned and franchise operations. The Company's branded products and services include meetings conducted by its franchisees, digital weight management products provided through its Websites, mobile sites and applications, products sold at meetings, licensed products sold in retail channels and magazine subscriptions and other publications. It operates through four segments: North America, United Kingdom, Continental Europe (CE) and Other. It sells a range of products, including bars, snacks, cookbooks, food and restaurant guides with SmartPoints values, Weight Watchers magazines, SmartPoints calculators and fitness kits, and certain third-party products, such as activity-tracking monitors. It sells its products through its meetings business, online and to its franchisees. It includes a range of nutritional, activity, behavioral and lifestyle tools.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Weight Watchers International (WTW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.9
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book -2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 36
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -164%
Total Debt to Equity -165.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity -5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.3%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Operating Margin 17.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 20.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

WTW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WTW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1306.911 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Weight Watchers International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Weight Watchers International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WTW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14%, whose default value for WTW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Weight Watchers International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Weight Watchers International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WTW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $353 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WTW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Weight Watchers International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Weight Watchers International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WTW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WTW are equal to 40.7%.

Life of production assets of 19.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Weight Watchers International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WTW is equal to -10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1015.986 million for Weight Watchers International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66.623 million for Weight Watchers International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Weight Watchers International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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