Intrinsic value of Exela Technologies, Inc. - XELA

Previous Close

$2.09

  Intrinsic Value

$0.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$2.09

 
Intrinsic value

$0.26

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of XELA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  1,304
  1,466
  1,636
  1,816
  2,004
  2,201
  2,407
  2,622
  2,846
  3,079
  3,321
  3,572
  3,833
  4,105
  4,387
  4,681
  4,986
  5,303
  5,634
  5,978
  6,336
  6,710
  7,100
  7,506
  7,931
  8,374
  8,837
  9,321
  9,827
  10,356
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,220
  1,370
  1,527
  1,694
  1,868
  2,051
  2,241
  2,440
  2,647
  2,862
  3,073
  3,306
  3,548
  3,799
  4,060
  4,332
  4,614
  4,908
  5,214
  5,532
  5,864
  6,210
  6,570
  6,947
  7,339
  7,750
  8,178
  8,626
  9,094
  9,584
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,220
  1,370
  1,527
  1,694
  1,868
  2,051
  2,241
  2,440
  2,647
  2,862
  3,073
  3,306
  3,548
  3,799
  4,060
  4,332
  4,614
  4,908
  5,214
  5,532
  5,864
  6,210
  6,570
  6,947
  7,339
  7,750
  8,178
  8,626
  9,094
  9,584
Operating income, $m
  84
  96
  109
  122
  136
  151
  166
  182
  199
  216
  248
  266
  286
  306
  327
  349
  372
  395
  420
  446
  472
  500
  529
  560
  591
  624
  659
  695
  733
  772
EBITDA, $m
  159
  179
  199
  221
  244
  268
  293
  320
  347
  375
  405
  435
  467
  500
  535
  571
  608
  646
  687
  729
  772
  818
  865
  915
  967
  1,021
  1,077
  1,136
  1,198
  1,262
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  143
  146
  169
  193
  219
  246
  274
  304
  334
  366
  400
  434
  471
  508
  547
  587
  629
  673
  719
  766
  815
  867
  920
  976
  1,034
  1,095
  1,159
  1,225
  1,294
  1,367
Earnings before tax, $m
  -59
  -50
  -60
  -71
  -83
  -95
  -108
  -121
  -136
  -150
  -152
  -168
  -185
  -202
  -220
  -238
  -258
  -278
  -299
  -320
  -343
  -366
  -391
  -416
  -443
  -471
  -500
  -530
  -562
  -595
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -59
  -50
  -60
  -71
  -83
  -95
  -108
  -121
  -136
  -150
  -152
  -168
  -185
  -202
  -220
  -238
  -258
  -278
  -299
  -320
  -343
  -366
  -391
  -416
  -443
  -471
  -500
  -530
  -562
  -595

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,941
  2,181
  2,435
  2,702
  2,982
  3,276
  3,583
  3,902
  4,235
  4,581
  4,941
  5,316
  5,704
  6,109
  6,529
  6,965
  7,419
  7,892
  8,384
  8,896
  9,429
  9,985
  10,565
  11,170
  11,802
  12,461
  13,150
  13,870
  14,623
  15,411
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,941
  2,181
  2,435
  2,702
  2,982
  3,276
  3,583
  3,902
  4,235
  4,581
  4,941
  5,316
  5,704
  6,109
  6,529
  6,965
  7,419
  7,892
  8,384
  8,896
  9,429
  9,985
  10,565
  11,170
  11,802
  12,461
  13,150
  13,870
  14,623
  15,411
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
  0.672
Average production assets, $m
  655
  736
  821
  911
  1,006
  1,105
  1,209
  1,316
  1,429
  1,545
  1,667
  1,793
  1,924
  2,061
  2,202
  2,350
  2,503
  2,662
  2,828
  3,001
  3,181
  3,368
  3,564
  3,768
  3,981
  4,204
  4,436
  4,679
  4,933
  5,199
Working capital, $m
  -81
  -91
  -101
  -113
  -124
  -136
  -149
  -163
  -176
  -191
  -206
  -221
  -238
  -255
  -272
  -290
  -309
  -329
  -349
  -371
  -393
  -416
  -440
  -465
  -492
  -519
  -548
  -578
  -609
  -642
Total debt, $m
  1,360
  1,576
  1,805
  2,045
  2,298
  2,562
  2,838
  3,125
  3,425
  3,737
  4,061
  4,397
  4,747
  5,111
  5,489
  5,882
  6,291
  6,716
  7,159
  7,619
  8,100
  8,600
  9,122
  9,666
  10,235
  10,828
  11,449
  12,097
  12,774
  13,483
Total liabilities, $m
  1,747
  1,963
  2,191
  2,432
  2,684
  2,948
  3,224
  3,512
  3,812
  4,123
  4,447
  4,784
  5,134
  5,498
  5,876
  6,269
  6,677
  7,103
  7,545
  8,006
  8,486
  8,987
  9,508
  10,053
  10,621
  11,215
  11,835
  12,483
  13,161
  13,870
Total equity, $m
  194
  218
  243
  270
  298
  328
  358
  390
  424
  458
  494
  532
  570
  611
  653
  697
  742
  789
  838
  890
  943
  999
  1,056
  1,117
  1,180
  1,246
  1,315
  1,387
  1,462
  1,541
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,941
  2,181
  2,434
  2,702
  2,982
  3,276
  3,582
  3,902
  4,236
  4,581
  4,941
  5,316
  5,704
  6,109
  6,529
  6,966
  7,419
  7,892
  8,383
  8,896
  9,429
  9,986
  10,564
  11,170
  11,801
  12,461
  13,150
  13,870
  14,623
  15,411
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.010
  7.230
  7.410
  7.570
  7.700
  7.820
  7.920
  8.010
  8.090
  8.160
  8.220
  8.270
  8.320
  8.370
  8.410
  8.440
  8.480
  8.510
  8.540
  8.570
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -59
  -50
  -60
  -71
  -83
  -95
  -108
  -121
  -136
  -150
  -152
  -168
  -185
  -202
  -220
  -238
  -258
  -278
  -299
  -320
  -343
  -366
  -391
  -416
  -443
  -471
  -500
  -530
  -562
  -595
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  118
  127
  137
  148
  159
  157
  169
  182
  194
  208
  222
  236
  251
  267
  283
  300
  318
  336
  355
  376
  397
  419
  441
  465
  490
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  33
  31
  28
  25
  23
  19
  16
  13
  9
  5
  1
  -3
  -8
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -96
  -104
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
Cash from operations, $m
  25
  43
  41
  39
  37
  35
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  17
  13
  9
  5
  1
  -3
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -72
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -104
  -114
  -124
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -169
  -182
  -194
  -208
  -222
  -236
  -251
  -267
  -283
  -300
  -318
  -336
  -355
  -376
  -397
  -419
  -441
  -465
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -131
  -143
  -155
  -167
  -181
  -194
  -207
  -222
  -236
  -252
  -267
  -283
  -300
  -318
  -336
  -355
  -375
  -395
  -417
  -440
  -463
  -488
  -514
  -540
  -568
  -598
  -629
  -662
  -695
  -731
Free cash flow, $m
  -106
  -100
  -114
  -128
  -143
  -159
  -176
  -192
  -210
  -228
  -247
  -267
  -287
  -309
  -331
  -354
  -378
  -402
  -428
  -455
  -484
  -513
  -544
  -576
  -610
  -645
  -682
  -720
  -760
  -803
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  22
  216
  229
  241
  252
  264
  276
  288
  300
  312
  324
  337
  350
  364
  378
  393
  409
  425
  443
  461
  480
  500
  522
  545
  568
  594
  620
  648
  678
  709
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  263
  74
  85
  98
  111
  124
  139
  153
  169
  185
  188
  206
  224
  242
  262
  282
  303
  325
  348
  372
  396
  422
  449
  477
  506
  537
  569
  602
  637
  674
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  285
  290
  314
  339
  363
  388
  415
  441
  469
  497
  512
  543
  574
  606
  640
  675
  712
  750
  791
  833
  876
  922
  971
  1,022
  1,074
  1,131
  1,189
  1,250
  1,315
  1,383
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  179
  190
  200
  210
  220
  229
  239
  249
  258
  268
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  348
  362
  377
  393
  409
  427
  445
  465
  486
  507
  530
  554
  580
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -263
  -74
  -85
  -98
  -111
  -124
  -139
  -153
  -169
  -185
  -188
  -206
  -224
  -242
  -262
  -282
  -303
  -325
  -348
  -372
  -396
  -422
  -449
  -477
  -506
  -537
  -569
  -602
  -637
  -674
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -84
  117
  115
  112
  109
  105
  100
  95
  89
  83
  77
  70
  63
  55
  47
  39
  31
  23
  14
  5
  -4
  -13
  -22
  -32
  -41
  -51
  -62
  -72
  -83
  -94
Discount rate, %
  14.50
  15.23
  15.99
  16.79
  17.62
  18.51
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.62
  24.80
  26.04
  27.34
  28.71
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.90
  36.64
  38.47
  40.40
  42.42
  44.54
  46.76
  49.10
  51.56
  54.14
  56.84
  59.68
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -73
  88
  74
  60
  48
  38
  29
  22
  16
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  36.3
  26.1
  18.6
  13.2
  9.3
  6.5
  4.6
  3.2
  2.2
  1.6
  1.1
  0.8
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Exela Technologies, Inc. (Exela), formerly Quinpario Acquisition Corp. 2, is engaged in providing information and transaction processing solutions. The Company’s segments include Information and Transaction Processing Solutions (ITPS), Healthcare Solutions (HS) and Legal & Loss Prevention Services (LLPS). ITPS provides industry solutions for banking and financial services, including lending solutions for mortgages, banking solutions for clearing, anti-money laundering, sanctions, cross-border settlement; property and casualty insurance solutions for enrollments, and communications. The HS segment offerings include integrated accounts payable and accounts receivable, and information management for both the healthcare payer and provider markets. The LLPS segment solutions include processing of legal claims for class action and mass action settlement administrations, involving project management support, notification and collection, analysis, and distribution of settlement funds.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Exela Technologies, Inc. (XELA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -21.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -21.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

XELA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XELA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1152 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Exela Technologies, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Exela Technologies, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XELA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.5%, whose default value for XELA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Exela Technologies, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Exela Technologies, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XELA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XELA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.7% for Exela Technologies, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Exela Technologies, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XELA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XELA are equal to 50.2%.

Life of production assets of 10.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Exela Technologies, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XELA is equal to -6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-10.006 million for Exela Technologies, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 151.649 million for Exela Technologies, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Exela Technologies, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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