Intrinsic value of Xilinx - XLNX

Previous Close

$68.17

  Intrinsic Value

$44.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

Previous close

$68.17

 
Intrinsic value

$44.53

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of XLNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  2,492
  2,642
  2,797
  2,959
  3,129
  3,306
  3,490
  3,683
  3,885
  4,095
  4,316
  4,547
  4,788
  5,041
  5,306
  5,583
  5,873
  6,178
  6,497
  6,831
  7,182
  7,550
  7,936
  8,340
  8,764
  9,210
  9,677
  10,167
  10,681
  11,220
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,736
  1,839
  1,946
  2,058
  2,175
  2,297
  2,425
  2,558
  2,697
  2,842
  2,978
  3,137
  3,304
  3,478
  3,661
  3,852
  4,053
  4,263
  4,483
  4,714
  4,956
  5,209
  5,475
  5,754
  6,047
  6,354
  6,677
  7,015
  7,369
  7,742
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,736
  1,839
  1,946
  2,058
  2,175
  2,297
  2,425
  2,558
  2,697
  2,842
  2,978
  3,137
  3,304
  3,478
  3,661
  3,852
  4,053
  4,263
  4,483
  4,714
  4,956
  5,209
  5,475
  5,754
  6,047
  6,354
  6,677
  7,015
  7,369
  7,742
Operating income, $m
  756
  802
  851
  901
  954
  1,008
  1,066
  1,125
  1,188
  1,253
  1,338
  1,410
  1,484
  1,563
  1,645
  1,731
  1,821
  1,915
  2,014
  2,118
  2,227
  2,341
  2,460
  2,586
  2,717
  2,855
  3,000
  3,152
  3,311
  3,479
EBITDA, $m
  821
  870
  922
  975
  1,031
  1,089
  1,150
  1,214
  1,280
  1,350
  1,422
  1,498
  1,578
  1,661
  1,748
  1,840
  1,935
  2,036
  2,141
  2,251
  2,367
  2,488
  2,615
  2,748
  2,888
  3,035
  3,189
  3,350
  3,520
  3,697
Interest expense (income), $m
  41
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  117
  125
  134
  144
  153
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
  223
  237
  251
  266
  282
  298
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
Earnings before tax, $m
  702
  743
  785
  829
  875
  923
  973
  1,025
  1,080
  1,137
  1,213
  1,275
  1,341
  1,409
  1,481
  1,556
  1,635
  1,718
  1,804
  1,895
  1,990
  2,089
  2,194
  2,304
  2,419
  2,539
  2,666
  2,799
  2,938
  3,084
Tax expense, $m
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  263
  277
  291
  307
  327
  344
  362
  381
  400
  420
  441
  464
  487
  512
  537
  564
  592
  622
  653
  686
  720
  756
  793
  833
Net income, $m
  513
  542
  573
  605
  639
  674
  710
  748
  788
  830
  885
  931
  979
  1,029
  1,081
  1,136
  1,194
  1,254
  1,317
  1,383
  1,453
  1,525
  1,602
  1,682
  1,766
  1,854
  1,946
  2,043
  2,145
  2,252

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,458
  2,605
  2,759
  2,919
  3,086
  3,260
  3,442
  3,632
  3,831
  4,039
  4,256
  4,484
  4,722
  4,971
  5,232
  5,506
  5,792
  6,093
  6,407
  6,737
  7,083
  7,446
  7,826
  8,225
  8,643
  9,082
  9,543
  10,026
  10,533
  11,065
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,458
  2,605
  2,759
  2,919
  3,086
  3,260
  3,442
  3,632
  3,831
  4,039
  4,256
  4,484
  4,722
  4,971
  5,232
  5,506
  5,792
  6,093
  6,407
  6,737
  7,083
  7,446
  7,826
  8,225
  8,643
  9,082
  9,543
  10,026
  10,533
  11,065
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
Average production assets, $m
  486
  515
  545
  577
  610
  645
  681
  718
  758
  799
  842
  887
  934
  983
  1,035
  1,089
  1,145
  1,205
  1,267
  1,332
  1,401
  1,472
  1,547
  1,626
  1,709
  1,796
  1,887
  1,982
  2,083
  2,188
Working capital, $m
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  315
  331
  348
  366
  385
  405
  425
  447
  470
  494
  518
  545
  572
Total debt, $m
  1,104
  1,217
  1,335
  1,458
  1,586
  1,719
  1,859
  2,005
  2,157
  2,317
  2,484
  2,658
  2,841
  3,032
  3,232
  3,442
  3,662
  3,892
  4,133
  4,386
  4,652
  4,930
  5,222
  5,528
  5,849
  6,185
  6,539
  6,909
  7,298
  7,706
Total liabilities, $m
  1,885
  1,998
  2,116
  2,239
  2,367
  2,500
  2,640
  2,786
  2,938
  3,098
  3,265
  3,439
  3,622
  3,813
  4,013
  4,223
  4,443
  4,673
  4,914
  5,167
  5,433
  5,711
  6,003
  6,309
  6,629
  6,966
  7,319
  7,690
  8,079
  8,487
Total equity, $m
  573
  607
  643
  680
  719
  760
  802
  846
  893
  941
  992
  1,045
  1,100
  1,158
  1,219
  1,283
  1,350
  1,420
  1,493
  1,570
  1,650
  1,735
  1,823
  1,916
  2,014
  2,116
  2,224
  2,336
  2,454
  2,578
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,458
  2,605
  2,759
  2,919
  3,086
  3,260
  3,442
  3,632
  3,831
  4,039
  4,257
  4,484
  4,722
  4,971
  5,232
  5,506
  5,793
  6,093
  6,407
  6,737
  7,083
  7,446
  7,826
  8,225
  8,643
  9,082
  9,543
  10,026
  10,533
  11,065
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.930
  2.010
  2.080
  2.140
  2.210
  2.260
  2.320
  2.370
  2.420
  2.460
  2.500
  2.540
  2.580
  2.620
  2.650
  2.680
  2.710
  2.740
  2.770
  2.790
  2.820
  2.840
  2.860
  2.880
  2.900
  2.920
  2.940
  2.960
  2.970
  2.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  513
  542
  573
  605
  639
  674
  710
  748
  788
  830
  885
  931
  979
  1,029
  1,081
  1,136
  1,194
  1,254
  1,317
  1,383
  1,453
  1,525
  1,602
  1,682
  1,766
  1,854
  1,946
  2,043
  2,145
  2,252
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  120
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  219
Funds from operations, $m
  578
  610
  644
  679
  716
  755
  795
  837
  880
  926
  970
  1,020
  1,072
  1,127
  1,185
  1,245
  1,308
  1,374
  1,444
  1,516
  1,593
  1,673
  1,756
  1,844
  1,937
  2,033
  2,135
  2,241
  2,353
  2,470
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Cash from operations, $m
  571
  603
  636
  671
  707
  746
  785
  827
  870
  915
  958
  1,008
  1,060
  1,114
  1,171
  1,231
  1,293
  1,359
  1,427
  1,499
  1,575
  1,654
  1,737
  1,824
  1,915
  2,011
  2,111
  2,216
  2,327
  2,443
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -192
  -201
  -212
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -298
  -313
Free cash flow, $m
  497
  525
  554
  585
  617
  650
  685
  721
  759
  799
  835
  879
  924
  972
  1,021
  1,073
  1,128
  1,185
  1,245
  1,307
  1,373
  1,442
  1,514
  1,590
  1,670
  1,753
  1,840
  1,932
  2,028
  2,129
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  292
  306
  321
  337
  353
  371
  389
  408
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  292
  306
  321
  337
  353
  371
  389
  408
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  606
  638
  672
  708
  745
  784
  824
  867
  911
  958
  1,002
  1,053
  1,107
  1,163
  1,222
  1,283
  1,348
  1,415
  1,486
  1,560
  1,638
  1,720
  1,806
  1,896
  1,990
  2,090
  2,194
  2,303
  2,417
  2,538
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,968
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  122
  130
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  181
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  290
  305
  321
  338
  355
  373
  393
  413
  434
  456
  479
  503
  529
  555
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,542
  604
  636
  670
  706
  743
  782
  823
  865
  910
  952
  1,000
  1,051
  1,105
  1,161
  1,219
  1,281
  1,345
  1,413
  1,484
  1,558
  1,636
  1,717
  1,803
  1,893
  1,987
  2,086
  2,190
  2,299
  2,414
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,437
  553
  554
  552
  547
  539
  528
  514
  497
  477
  452
  427
  400
  371
  341
  310
  279
  248
  218
  189
  161
  136
  113
  92
  74
  58
  45
  34
  25
  18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Xilinx, Inc. (Xilinx) is engaged in designing and developing programmable devices and associated technologies. The Company's programmable devices and associated technologies include integrated circuits (ICs) in the form of programmable logic devices (PLDs), including programmable System on Chips (SoCs) and three-dimensional ICs (3D ICs); software design tools to program the PLDs; targeted reference designs; printed circuit boards, and intellectual property (IP), which consists of Xilinx, and various third-party verification and IP cores. The Company provides design services, customer training, field engineering and technical support. Its PLDs include field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), complex programmable logic devices (CPLDs) that its customers program to perform desired logic functions, and programmable SoCs, which combine (Advanced reduced instruction set computing (RISC) Machines (ARM)) processor-based systems with programmable logic in a single device.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Xilinx (XLNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.1
Price to Sales 7.2
Price to Book 6.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 111.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.7%
Total Debt to Equity 57.9%
Interest Coverage 18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Total Capital 15.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Return On Equity 24.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.9%
EBITDA Margin 33.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Operating Margin 29.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 29.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
Net Profit Margin 26.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Effective Tax Rate 9.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Payout Ratio 53.5%

XLNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XLNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2349 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Xilinx. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Xilinx. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XLNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for XLNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Xilinx, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Xilinx.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XLNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XLNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Xilinx.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Xilinx. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XLNX stock is equal to 5.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XLNX are equal to 19.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Xilinx operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XLNX is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2508 million for Xilinx - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 252 million for Xilinx is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Xilinx at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Xilinx Traders and Investors Should Raise Sell-Stops   [Mar-14-18 02:57PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ What's Next For Broadcom Now That Trump's Nixed Qualcomm Buy?   [04:08PM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ Growth Stocks Investors Love   [Jan-29-18 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Stock Market News For Jan 26, 2018   [Jan-26-18 09:18AM  Zacks]
▶ Xilinx beats Street 3Q forecasts   [04:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Xilinx Sees RS Rating Climb To 75   [Jan-18-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Chip-makers among top performers in IQ 100   [Jan-17-18 12:44PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Xilinx (XLNX) Catches Eye: Stock Jumps 5.2%   [Jan-08-18 08:56AM  Zacks]
▶ Xilinx Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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