Intrinsic value of Xperi Corporation - XPER

Previous Close

$19.30

  Intrinsic Value

$11.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-42%

Previous close

$19.30

 
Intrinsic value

$11.21

 
Up/down potential

-42%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of XPER stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  650
  1,004
  1,501
  2,178
  3,073
  4,224
  5,670
  7,445
  9,580
  12,100
  15,025
  18,370
  22,142
  26,345
  30,977
  36,033
  41,507
  47,390
  53,672
  60,343
  67,395
  74,821
  82,614
  90,772
  99,293
  108,178
  117,431
  127,059
  137,069
  147,473
Variable operating expenses, $m
  661
  983
  1,434
  2,049
  2,862
  3,907
  5,220
  6,832
  8,771
  11,060
  13,645
  16,683
  20,108
  23,925
  28,131
  32,723
  37,695
  43,037
  48,741
  54,800
  61,204
  67,948
  75,025
  82,434
  90,172
  98,241
  106,644
  115,387
  124,477
  133,926
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  661
  983
  1,434
  2,049
  2,862
  3,907
  5,220
  6,832
  8,771
  11,060
  13,645
  16,683
  20,108
  23,925
  28,131
  32,723
  37,695
  43,037
  48,741
  54,800
  61,204
  67,948
  75,025
  82,434
  90,172
  98,241
  106,644
  115,387
  124,477
  133,926
Operating income, $m
  -12
  21
  66
  129
  211
  317
  449
  613
  809
  1,040
  1,380
  1,688
  2,034
  2,420
  2,846
  3,310
  3,813
  4,353
  4,930
  5,543
  6,191
  6,873
  7,589
  8,339
  9,121
  9,937
  10,787
  11,672
  12,591
  13,547
EBITDA, $m
  156
  241
  360
  523
  738
  1,014
  1,361
  1,788
  2,300
  2,905
  3,608
  4,411
  5,317
  6,326
  7,438
  8,652
  9,967
  11,379
  12,888
  14,490
  16,183
  17,966
  19,838
  21,796
  23,843
  25,976
  28,198
  30,510
  32,913
  35,412
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  26
  46
  75
  115
  171
  244
  338
  456
  601
  776
  982
  1,221
  1,495
  1,803
  2,147
  2,525
  2,939
  3,386
  3,867
  4,381
  4,926
  5,503
  6,110
  6,747
  7,414
  8,110
  8,837
  9,593
  10,380
  11,199
Earnings before tax, $m
  -38
  -25
  -8
  13
  40
  73
  111
  156
  207
  264
  398
  466
  539
  617
  699
  785
  874
  967
  1,063
  1,163
  1,265
  1,371
  1,479
  1,592
  1,707
  1,827
  1,951
  2,079
  2,211
  2,348
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  4
  11
  20
  30
  42
  56
  71
  108
  126
  146
  167
  189
  212
  236
  261
  287
  314
  342
  370
  399
  430
  461
  493
  527
  561
  597
  634
Net income, $m
  -38
  -25
  -8
  10
  29
  53
  81
  114
  151
  193
  291
  340
  394
  450
  510
  573
  638
  706
  776
  849
  923
  1,001
  1,080
  1,162
  1,246
  1,334
  1,424
  1,517
  1,614
  1,714

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,815
  2,803
  4,193
  6,083
  8,582
  11,799
  15,838
  20,796
  26,759
  33,799
  41,971
  51,313
  61,850
  73,589
  86,527
  100,652
  115,943
  132,375
  149,921
  168,556
  188,255
  208,997
  230,766
  253,553
  277,355
  302,174
  328,020
  354,912
  382,874
  411,936
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,815
  2,803
  4,193
  6,083
  8,582
  11,799
  15,838
  20,796
  26,759
  33,799
  41,971
  51,313
  61,850
  73,589
  86,527
  100,652
  115,943
  132,375
  149,921
  168,556
  188,255
  208,997
  230,766
  253,553
  277,355
  302,174
  328,020
  354,912
  382,874
  411,936
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
Average production assets, $m
  665
  1,027
  1,535
  2,228
  3,143
  4,321
  5,800
  7,616
  9,800
  12,378
  15,371
  18,793
  22,651
  26,951
  31,689
  36,862
  42,462
  48,480
  54,906
  61,731
  68,945
  76,542
  84,514
  92,860
  101,577
  110,666
  120,132
  129,981
  140,221
  150,865
Working capital, $m
  303
  468
  699
  1,015
  1,432
  1,968
  2,642
  3,469
  4,464
  5,639
  7,002
  8,560
  10,318
  12,277
  14,435
  16,792
  19,342
  22,084
  25,011
  28,120
  31,406
  34,866
  38,498
  42,300
  46,271
  50,411
  54,723
  59,209
  63,874
  68,722
Total debt, $m
  850
  1,386
  2,139
  3,164
  4,518
  6,262
  8,451
  11,138
  14,370
  18,186
  22,615
  27,678
  33,389
  39,752
  46,764
  54,420
  62,707
  71,614
  81,124
  91,224
  101,901
  113,143
  124,942
  137,292
  150,193
  163,645
  177,654
  192,229
  207,384
  223,136
Total liabilities, $m
  983
  1,519
  2,272
  3,297
  4,652
  6,395
  8,584
  11,271
  14,503
  18,319
  22,748
  27,812
  33,522
  39,885
  46,898
  54,553
  62,841
  71,747
  81,257
  91,357
  102,034
  113,276
  125,075
  137,426
  150,326
  163,778
  177,787
  192,363
  207,518
  223,269
Total equity, $m
  831
  1,284
  1,920
  2,786
  3,931
  5,404
  7,254
  9,524
  12,256
  15,480
  19,223
  23,501
  28,327
  33,704
  39,630
  46,099
  53,102
  60,628
  68,664
  77,199
  86,221
  95,720
  105,691
  116,127
  127,029
  138,396
  150,233
  162,550
  175,356
  188,667
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,814
  2,803
  4,192
  6,083
  8,583
  11,799
  15,838
  20,795
  26,759
  33,799
  41,971
  51,313
  61,849
  73,589
  86,528
  100,652
  115,943
  132,375
  149,921
  168,556
  188,255
  208,996
  230,766
  253,553
  277,355
  302,174
  328,020
  354,913
  382,874
  411,936
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.020
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -38
  -25
  -8
  10
  29
  53
  81
  114
  151
  193
  291
  340
  394
  450
  510
  573
  638
  706
  776
  849
  923
  1,001
  1,080
  1,162
  1,246
  1,334
  1,424
  1,517
  1,614
  1,714
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  168
  220
  294
  394
  527
  698
  912
  1,175
  1,492
  1,865
  2,228
  2,724
  3,283
  3,906
  4,593
  5,342
  6,154
  7,026
  7,957
  8,947
  9,992
  11,093
  12,248
  13,458
  14,721
  16,039
  17,410
  18,838
  20,322
  21,864
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  195
  286
  404
  556
  751
  993
  1,289
  1,643
  2,058
  2,518
  3,064
  3,677
  4,356
  5,103
  5,915
  6,792
  7,732
  8,734
  9,795
  10,915
  12,094
  13,328
  14,620
  15,968
  17,372
  18,834
  20,355
  21,936
  23,579
Change in working capital, $m
  114
  165
  232
  315
  417
  537
  674
  827
  995
  1,174
  1,363
  1,559
  1,758
  1,958
  2,159
  2,356
  2,551
  2,741
  2,927
  3,109
  3,286
  3,460
  3,632
  3,802
  3,971
  4,140
  4,312
  4,486
  4,665
  4,848
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  30
  54
  88
  139
  214
  320
  462
  648
  884
  1,155
  1,505
  1,919
  2,398
  2,944
  3,559
  4,241
  4,991
  5,806
  6,686
  7,629
  8,633
  9,697
  10,818
  11,997
  13,232
  14,523
  15,869
  17,271
  18,730
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -96
  -149
  -223
  -323
  -456
  -626
  -841
  -1,104
  -1,420
  -1,794
  -2,228
  -2,724
  -3,283
  -3,906
  -4,593
  -5,342
  -6,154
  -7,026
  -7,957
  -8,947
  -9,992
  -11,093
  -12,248
  -13,458
  -14,721
  -16,039
  -17,410
  -18,838
  -20,322
New CAPEX, $m
  -249
  -362
  -509
  -692
  -915
  -1,178
  -1,479
  -1,816
  -2,184
  -2,578
  -2,993
  -3,422
  -3,859
  -4,299
  -4,739
  -5,173
  -5,600
  -6,018
  -6,426
  -6,825
  -7,214
  -7,596
  -7,973
  -8,345
  -8,717
  -9,090
  -9,466
  -9,849
  -10,240
  -10,644
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -309
  -458
  -658
  -915
  -1,238
  -1,634
  -2,105
  -2,657
  -3,288
  -3,998
  -4,787
  -5,650
  -6,583
  -7,582
  -8,645
  -9,766
  -10,942
  -12,172
  -13,452
  -14,782
  -16,161
  -17,588
  -19,066
  -20,593
  -22,175
  -23,811
  -25,505
  -27,259
  -29,078
  -30,966
Free cash flow, $m
  -293
  -428
  -604
  -826
  -1,099
  -1,419
  -1,786
  -2,194
  -2,640
  -3,115
  -3,632
  -4,144
  -4,664
  -5,184
  -5,700
  -6,207
  -6,701
  -7,181
  -7,646
  -8,096
  -8,532
  -8,955
  -9,369
  -9,776
  -10,178
  -10,579
  -10,982
  -11,390
  -11,807
  -12,235
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  368
  536
  753
  1,025
  1,355
  1,743
  2,189
  2,687
  3,232
  3,816
  4,429
  5,064
  5,711
  6,363
  7,013
  7,656
  8,288
  8,906
  9,510
  10,100
  10,677
  11,242
  11,799
  12,351
  12,900
  13,452
  14,009
  14,575
  15,155
  15,752
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  350
  478
  645
  856
  1,115
  1,420
  1,768
  2,157
  2,580
  3,031
  3,452
  3,938
  4,432
  4,926
  5,416
  5,896
  6,365
  6,820
  7,260
  7,686
  8,099
  8,499
  8,890
  9,275
  9,655
  10,033
  10,414
  10,799
  11,192
  11,596
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  718
  1,014
  1,398
  1,881
  2,470
  3,163
  3,957
  4,844
  5,812
  6,847
  7,881
  9,002
  10,143
  11,289
  12,429
  13,552
  14,653
  15,726
  16,770
  17,786
  18,776
  19,741
  20,689
  21,626
  22,555
  23,485
  24,423
  25,374
  26,347
  27,348
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  425
  586
  794
  1,055
  1,371
  1,744
  2,172
  2,650
  3,172
  3,732
  4,249
  4,858
  5,479
  6,105
  6,728
  7,345
  7,951
  8,545
  9,124
  9,690
  10,244
  10,786
  11,321
  11,850
  12,377
  12,906
  13,441
  13,984
  14,540
  15,113
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -350
  -478
  -645
  -866
  -1,145
  -1,473
  -1,850
  -2,271
  -2,731
  -3,224
  -3,743
  -4,279
  -4,826
  -5,377
  -5,926
  -6,469
  -7,003
  -7,526
  -8,036
  -8,535
  -9,022
  -9,500
  -9,970
  -10,437
  -10,901
  -11,367
  -11,838
  -12,316
  -12,806
  -13,311
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  175
  108
  149
  189
  226
  271
  322
  379
  441
  508
  507
  579
  653
  728
  802
  876
  948
  1,019
  1,088
  1,156
  1,222
  1,286
  1,350
  1,413
  1,476
  1,539
  1,603
  1,668
  1,734
  1,802
Discount rate, %
  5.00
  5.25
  5.51
  5.79
  6.08
  6.38
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  167
  97
  127
  151
  169
  187
  204
  220
  232
  241
  214
  216
  214
  206
  195
  180
  163
  145
  126
  107
  89
  73
  58
  46
  35
  26
  19
  14
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  69.2
  50.2
  37.7
  29.1
  23.0
  18.6
  15.3
  12.8
  10.9
  9.3
  8.1
  7.2
  6.4
  5.7
  5.2
  4.7
  4.3
  4.0
  3.7
  3.4
  3.2
  3.0
  2.8
  2.7
  2.5
  2.4
  2.3
  2.2
  2.1
  2.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Xperi Corporation (XPER)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

XPER stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XPER stock intrinsic value calculation we used $406 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Xperi Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Xperi Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XPER stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5%, whose default value for XPER is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Xperi Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Xperi Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XPER stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XPER stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Xperi Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Xperi Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XPER stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XPER are equal to 102.3%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Xperi Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XPER is equal to 46.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $619.442 million for Xperi Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.651 million for Xperi Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Xperi Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

CONTACT US      

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use      

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.