Intrinsic value of Youngevity International - YGYI

Previous Close

$6.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$6.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of YGYI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  184
  203
  223
  244
  266
  288
  312
  337
  362
  389
  416
  445
  475
  506
  538
  571
  606
  643
  681
  720
  762
  805
  850
  897
  946
  997
  1,051
  1,107
  1,166
  1,227
Variable operating expenses, $m
  180
  199
  218
  238
  259
  281
  304
  328
  352
  378
  402
  430
  458
  488
  519
  552
  586
  621
  657
  695
  735
  777
  820
  866
  913
  963
  1,015
  1,069
  1,126
  1,185
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  180
  199
  218
  238
  259
  281
  304
  328
  352
  378
  402
  430
  458
  488
  519
  552
  586
  621
  657
  695
  735
  777
  820
  866
  913
  963
  1,015
  1,069
  1,126
  1,185
Operating income, $m
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
EBITDA, $m
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  80
  89
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  194
  207
  221
  235
  249
  264
  280
  297
  314
  332
  351
  371
  391
  412
  435
  458
  483
  508
  535
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  80
  89
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  194
  207
  221
  235
  249
  264
  280
  297
  314
  332
  351
  371
  391
  412
  435
  458
  483
  508
  535
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.300
  2.281
  2.299
  2.302
  2.293
  2.286
  2.294
  2.293
  2.291
  2.288
  2.286
  2.294
  2.295
  2.290
  2.289
  2.293
  2.295
  2.296
  2.293
  2.293
  2.295
  2.293
  2.291
  2.294
  2.296
  2.292
  2.295
  2.292
  2.295
  2.293
Average production assets, $m
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
Working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Total debt, $m
  28
  36
  44
  52
  60
  69
  78
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  142
  154
  167
  180
  193
  208
  223
  238
  254
  271
  289
  307
  326
  346
  367
  389
  412
  436
Total liabilities, $m
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  224
  237
  251
  266
  282
  298
  315
  332
  351
  370
  390
  411
  433
  456
  480
Total equity, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  80
  88
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  169
  182
  194
  207
  221
  234
  250
  264
  280
  297
  314
  332
  351
  370
  391
  412
  435
  458
  483
  508
  535
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.410
  3.910
  4.340
  4.720
  5.050
  5.330
  5.590
  5.820
  6.020
  6.200
  6.370
  6.520
  6.660
  6.780
  6.900
  7.000
  7.100
  7.190
  7.280
  7.360
  7.430
  7.500
  7.560
  7.620
  7.680
  7.730
  7.780
  7.830
  7.870
  7.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  3
  2
  0
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  2
  0
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  80
  86
  91
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  62
  67
  72
  76
  80
  86
  91
  97
  102
  109
  115
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -86
  -91
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  4
  3
  1
  0
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
Discount rate, %
  11.90
  12.50
  13.12
  13.78
  14.46
  15.19
  15.95
  16.74
  17.58
  18.46
  19.38
  20.35
  21.37
  22.44
  23.56
  24.74
  25.98
  27.28
  28.64
  30.07
  31.57
  33.15
  34.81
  36.55
  38.38
  40.30
  42.31
  44.43
  46.65
  48.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  4
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.0
  89.1
  82.6
  75.7
  68.9
  62.2
  55.8
  49.8
  44.2
  39.0
  34.8
  30.9
  27.3
  24.1
  21.1
  18.5
  16.1
  14.0
  12.2
  10.6
  9.1
  7.9
  6.8
  5.8
  5.0
  4.3
  3.7
  3.1
  2.7
  2.3

Youngevity International, Inc. is an e-commerce company. The Company operates through two segments: the direct selling segment where products are offered through a global distribution network of customers and distributors, and the commercial coffee segment where products are sold directly to businesses. The Company offers over 2,500 products to support a healthy lifestyle. All of these products, which are sold through its direct selling network, are categorized into over 11 sub-product lines. In the direct selling segment, the Company sells health and wellness, beauty product and skin care, scrap booking and story booking items, and packaged food products on a global basis, and offers a range of products through an international direct selling network. The Company is engaged in the commercial sale of coffee through its subsidiary CLR Roasters, LLC (CLR) and its subsidiary. Its brands include Cafe La Rica, Javalution Daily Grind, Javalution Royal Roast, SOZO Global and Integris.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Youngevity International (YGYI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 6.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -63.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -42.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 110.5%
Total Debt to Equity 121.1%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Asset Turnover 2.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.7%
EBITDA Margin 3.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Operating Margin 1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -100%
Payout Ratio 0%

YGYI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the YGYI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $165.696 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Youngevity International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Youngevity International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our YGYI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.9%, whose default value for YGYI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Youngevity International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Youngevity International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of YGYI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for YGYI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 31.6% for Youngevity International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Youngevity International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the YGYI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for YGYI are equal to 15.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Youngevity International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for YGYI is equal to 0.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7.451 million for Youngevity International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.356 million for Youngevity International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Youngevity International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Youngevity's Hemp FX Now Available for Purchase Online   [Oct-18-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Youngevity International Inc. Is Tanking Today   [Oct-17-18 11:19AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Youngevity International Inc. Is Crushing It Today   [Oct-12-18 01:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Youngevity To Enter The Hemp (CBD) Market   [Aug-21-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Youngevity International, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-14-18 11:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Youngevity Announces Be The Change 5K Run/Walk   [Aug-09-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ YGYI Launches New Corporate Investor Relations Website   [Jul-17-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Youngevity Added To Russell Microcap® Index   [Jun-28-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Youngevity Announces Preferred Stock Dividend   [Jun-26-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ YGYI's CLR Roasters Lands Private Label Contract   [Jun-12-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Youngevity International, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [May-14-18 12:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ YOUNGEVITY INTERNATIONAL COMPLETES ACQUISITION of VIAVIENTE   [Mar-06-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ UPDATE:  Youngevity Completes Acquisition of Nature Direct   [Feb-20-18 09:51AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Youngevity Acquires Gigi Hill Brand   [Jan-24-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Youngevity Completes Acquisition of Future Global Vision   [Nov-20-17 08:30AM  Marketwired]

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