Intrinsic value of Yandex N.V. - YNDX

Previous Close

$35.31

  Intrinsic Value

$29.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-16%

Previous close

$35.31

 
Intrinsic value

$29.77

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of YNDX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.20
  29.48
  27.03
  24.83
  22.85
  21.06
  19.46
  18.01
  16.71
  15.54
  14.48
  13.54
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.08
  8.67
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
Revenue, $m
  2,155
  2,790
  3,544
  4,424
  5,435
  6,580
  7,860
  9,276
  10,825
  12,507
  14,319
  16,257
  18,319
  20,501
  22,802
  25,219
  27,751
  30,398
  33,159
  36,035
  39,028
  42,141
  45,377
  48,740
  52,234
  55,866
  59,641
  63,566
  67,650
  71,899
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,783
  2,301
  2,916
  3,634
  4,458
  5,392
  6,436
  7,591
  8,855
  10,227
  11,680
  13,261
  14,943
  16,723
  18,600
  20,572
  22,637
  24,796
  27,048
  29,394
  31,836
  34,376
  37,015
  39,758
  42,609
  45,571
  48,651
  51,853
  55,183
  58,649
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,783
  2,301
  2,916
  3,634
  4,458
  5,392
  6,436
  7,591
  8,855
  10,227
  11,680
  13,261
  14,943
  16,723
  18,600
  20,572
  22,637
  24,796
  27,048
  29,394
  31,836
  34,376
  37,015
  39,758
  42,609
  45,571
  48,651
  51,853
  55,183
  58,649
Operating income, $m
  372
  489
  628
  790
  977
  1,188
  1,424
  1,684
  1,970
  2,280
  2,639
  2,996
  3,376
  3,778
  4,202
  4,647
  5,114
  5,602
  6,110
  6,640
  7,192
  7,766
  8,362
  8,982
  9,626
  10,295
  10,990
  11,714
  12,466
  13,249
EBITDA, $m
  517
  670
  851
  1,062
  1,305
  1,580
  1,887
  2,227
  2,599
  3,003
  3,438
  3,903
  4,398
  4,922
  5,474
  6,055
  6,662
  7,298
  7,961
  8,651
  9,370
  10,117
  10,894
  11,701
  12,540
  13,412
  14,318
  15,261
  16,241
  17,261
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  17
  26
  37
  50
  65
  82
  102
  124
  148
  175
  204
  235
  268
  303
  341
  380
  422
  465
  511
  558
  608
  659
  713
  768
  826
  886
  948
  1,013
  1,081
  1,151
Earnings before tax, $m
  356
  464
  592
  741
  912
  1,106
  1,322
  1,561
  1,822
  2,105
  2,435
  2,761
  3,108
  3,475
  3,861
  4,267
  4,692
  5,136
  5,599
  6,082
  6,584
  7,106
  7,649
  8,213
  8,800
  9,409
  10,042
  10,701
  11,386
  12,098
Tax expense, $m
  96
  125
  160
  200
  246
  298
  357
  421
  492
  568
  657
  745
  839
  938
  1,042
  1,152
  1,267
  1,387
  1,512
  1,642
  1,778
  1,919
  2,065
  2,218
  2,376
  2,540
  2,711
  2,889
  3,074
  3,267
Net income, $m
  260
  338
  432
  541
  666
  807
  965
  1,139
  1,330
  1,537
  1,778
  2,016
  2,269
  2,536
  2,819
  3,115
  3,425
  3,749
  4,088
  4,440
  4,806
  5,188
  5,584
  5,996
  6,424
  6,868
  7,331
  7,811
  8,311
  8,832

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,894
  2,452
  3,115
  3,888
  4,776
  5,782
  6,907
  8,151
  9,513
  10,991
  12,583
  14,286
  16,097
  18,015
  20,037
  22,161
  24,386
  26,711
  29,138
  31,665
  34,295
  37,031
  39,874
  42,829
  45,900
  49,091
  52,409
  55,858
  59,446
  63,180
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,894
  2,452
  3,115
  3,888
  4,776
  5,782
  6,907
  8,151
  9,513
  10,991
  12,583
  14,286
  16,097
  18,015
  20,037
  22,161
  24,386
  26,711
  29,138
  31,665
  34,295
  37,031
  39,874
  42,829
  45,900
  49,091
  52,409
  55,858
  59,446
  63,180
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
  1.138
Average production assets, $m
  601
  778
  989
  1,234
  1,516
  1,836
  2,193
  2,588
  3,020
  3,490
  3,995
  4,536
  5,111
  5,720
  6,362
  7,036
  7,743
  8,481
  9,251
  10,054
  10,889
  11,757
  12,660
  13,598
  14,573
  15,587
  16,640
  17,735
  18,874
  20,060
Working capital, $m
  -62
  -81
  -103
  -128
  -158
  -191
  -228
  -269
  -314
  -363
  -415
  -471
  -531
  -595
  -661
  -731
  -805
  -882
  -962
  -1,045
  -1,132
  -1,222
  -1,316
  -1,413
  -1,515
  -1,620
  -1,730
  -1,843
  -1,962
  -2,085
Total debt, $m
  477
  679
  919
  1,199
  1,520
  1,884
  2,291
  2,742
  3,235
  3,770
  4,346
  4,963
  5,618
  6,313
  7,045
  7,813
  8,619
  9,461
  10,339
  11,254
  12,206
  13,196
  14,226
  15,295
  16,407
  17,562
  18,763
  20,012
  21,311
  22,662
Total liabilities, $m
  685
  888
  1,127
  1,407
  1,729
  2,093
  2,500
  2,951
  3,444
  3,979
  4,555
  5,171
  5,827
  6,522
  7,253
  8,022
  8,828
  9,670
  10,548
  11,463
  12,415
  13,405
  14,435
  15,504
  16,616
  17,771
  18,972
  20,221
  21,519
  22,871
Total equity, $m
  1,208
  1,564
  1,987
  2,480
  3,047
  3,689
  4,407
  5,200
  6,069
  7,012
  8,028
  9,114
  10,270
  11,494
  12,784
  14,139
  15,558
  17,042
  18,590
  20,202
  21,880
  23,626
  25,440
  27,325
  29,284
  31,320
  33,437
  35,637
  37,927
  40,309
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,893
  2,452
  3,114
  3,887
  4,776
  5,782
  6,907
  8,151
  9,513
  10,991
  12,583
  14,285
  16,097
  18,016
  20,037
  22,161
  24,386
  26,712
  29,138
  31,665
  34,295
  37,031
  39,875
  42,829
  45,900
  49,091
  52,409
  55,858
  59,446
  63,180
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.390
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  260
  338
  432
  541
  666
  807
  965
  1,139
  1,330
  1,537
  1,778
  2,016
  2,269
  2,536
  2,819
  3,115
  3,425
  3,749
  4,088
  4,440
  4,806
  5,188
  5,584
  5,996
  6,424
  6,868
  7,331
  7,811
  8,311
  8,832
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  181
  223
  272
  328
  392
  463
  542
  629
  723
  799
  907
  1,022
  1,144
  1,272
  1,407
  1,549
  1,696
  1,850
  2,011
  2,178
  2,351
  2,532
  2,720
  2,915
  3,117
  3,328
  3,547
  3,775
  4,012
Funds from operations, $m
  405
  519
  655
  813
  994
  1,199
  1,428
  1,682
  1,959
  2,260
  2,577
  2,923
  3,291
  3,680
  4,091
  4,522
  4,974
  5,446
  5,938
  6,451
  6,984
  7,539
  8,116
  8,715
  9,338
  9,986
  10,659
  11,358
  12,086
  12,844
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
Cash from operations, $m
  420
  537
  676
  838
  1,023
  1,232
  1,465
  1,723
  2,004
  2,308
  2,629
  2,979
  3,351
  3,744
  4,158
  4,592
  5,047
  5,522
  6,018
  6,534
  7,071
  7,629
  8,210
  8,813
  9,440
  10,091
  10,768
  11,472
  12,205
  12,967
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -120
  -156
  -198
  -247
  -303
  -367
  -439
  -518
  -604
  -698
  -799
  -907
  -1,022
  -1,144
  -1,272
  -1,407
  -1,549
  -1,696
  -1,850
  -2,011
  -2,178
  -2,351
  -2,532
  -2,720
  -2,915
  -3,117
  -3,328
  -3,547
  -3,775
New CAPEX, $m
  -146
  -177
  -210
  -246
  -282
  -319
  -357
  -395
  -432
  -469
  -505
  -541
  -575
  -609
  -642
  -674
  -706
  -738
  -770
  -802
  -835
  -869
  -903
  -938
  -975
  -1,013
  -1,053
  -1,095
  -1,139
  -1,186
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -237
  -297
  -366
  -444
  -529
  -622
  -724
  -834
  -950
  -1,073
  -1,203
  -1,340
  -1,482
  -1,631
  -1,786
  -1,946
  -2,113
  -2,287
  -2,466
  -2,652
  -2,846
  -3,047
  -3,254
  -3,470
  -3,695
  -3,928
  -4,170
  -4,423
  -4,686
  -4,961
Free cash flow, $m
  183
  240
  310
  395
  494
  610
  741
  889
  1,054
  1,235
  1,426
  1,639
  1,868
  2,113
  2,372
  2,645
  2,933
  3,235
  3,551
  3,881
  4,225
  4,583
  4,956
  5,343
  5,745
  6,163
  6,598
  7,049
  7,518
  8,007
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  168
  202
  240
  280
  322
  364
  407
  450
  493
  535
  576
  617
  656
  694
  732
  769
  805
  842
  878
  915
  952
  990
  1,029
  1,070
  1,112
  1,155
  1,201
  1,249
  1,299
  1,352
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  35
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  203
  220
  240
  280
  322
  364
  407
  450
  493
  535
  576
  617
  656
  694
  732
  769
  805
  842
  878
  915
  952
  990
  1,029
  1,070
  1,112
  1,155
  1,201
  1,249
  1,299
  1,352
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  385
  460
  550
  675
  816
  974
  1,148
  1,340
  1,547
  1,770
  2,002
  2,256
  2,524
  2,807
  3,104
  3,414
  3,739
  4,077
  4,430
  4,796
  5,177
  5,573
  5,985
  6,412
  6,857
  7,318
  7,798
  8,298
  8,817
  9,358
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -294
  -356
  -423
  -493
  -567
  -642
  -718
  -794
  -869
  -943
  -1,016
  -1,087
  -1,156
  -1,224
  -1,290
  -1,355
  -1,420
  -1,484
  -1,548
  -1,613
  -1,678
  -1,745
  -1,814
  -1,885
  -1,959
  -2,036
  -2,116
  -2,201
  -2,289
  -2,382
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  521
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  612
  104
  127
  181
  249
  332
  431
  546
  678
  827
  986
  1,169
  1,368
  1,583
  1,814
  2,059
  2,319
  2,594
  2,882
  3,184
  3,499
  3,828
  4,171
  4,527
  4,898
  5,282
  5,682
  6,097
  6,528
  6,976
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  587
  95
  111
  149
  193
  241
  291
  341
  389
  434
  468
  499
  520
  532
  532
  523
  505
  478
  444
  405
  362
  318
  273
  231
  191
  154
  122
  94
  71
  53
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.5
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3
  99.3

Yandex N.V. is an Internet and technology company, and operates Internet search engine. The Company's segments include Search and Portal, E-commerce, Taxi, Classifieds and Experimental businesses. The Company's Search and Portal segment offers a range of services in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, among which are search, location-based, personalized and mobile services, that enable the Company's users to find relevant and objective information to communicate and connect over the Internet, from both their desktops and mobile devices. The Company's search engine offers access to a range of information available online. The Company's Yandex.Market gives retailers a platform to reach customers seeking specific retailer, product or price information. As of December 31, 2016, Yandex.Taxi was operating in 46 cities across Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine. The Company's Classifieds business unit includes Auto.ru, Yandex.Realty, Yandex.Jobs and Yandex.Travel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Yandex N.V. (YNDX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 98.4
Price to Sales 8.8
Price to Book 8.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 26.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 24.3%
Total Debt to Equity 24.3%
Interest Coverage 48
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Return On Equity 9.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 74%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.6%
EBITDA Margin 27.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.1%
Operating Margin 17%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Net Profit Margin 9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
Effective Tax Rate 39.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

YNDX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the YNDX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1630 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Yandex N.V.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Yandex N.V.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our YNDX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for YNDX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Yandex N.V., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Yandex N.V..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of YNDX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for YNDX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Yandex N.V..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Yandex N.V.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the YNDX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for YNDX are equal to 27.9%.

Life of production assets of 2.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Yandex N.V. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for YNDX is equal to -2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1435.21053544 million for Yandex N.V. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 324.347 million for Yandex N.V. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Yandex N.V. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.5 billion.

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