Intrinsic value of YogaWorks - YOGA

Previous Close

$0.95

  Intrinsic Value

$0.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$0.95

 
Intrinsic value

$0.30

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of YOGA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  200
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
  384
  404
Variable operating expenses, $m
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  142
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  216
  229
  242
  256
  271
  286
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  394
  415
  437
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  142
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  216
  229
  242
  256
  271
  286
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  394
  415
  437
Operating income, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
EBITDA, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  68
  75
  83
  90
  98
  107
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  187
  199
  212
  225
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  315
  332
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  68
  75
  83
  90
  98
  107
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  187
  199
  212
  225
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  315
  332
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.897
  0.893
  0.880
  0.889
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.889
  0.890
  0.885
  0.886
  0.888
  0.889
  0.887
  0.889
  0.887
  0.889
  0.888
  0.890
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.888
  0.889
  0.888
Average production assets, $m
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  183
  192
  203
  213
Working capital, $m
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
Total debt, $m
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
Total liabilities, $m
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
Total equity, $m
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  85
  92
  98
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  68
  75
  83
  90
  98
  106
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  199
  211
  225
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  315
  332
  350
  369
  390
  410
  432
  455
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.060
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  57
  61
  64
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  26
  27
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -64
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  71.1
  50.5
  36.1
  26.0
  18.9
  13.8
  10.1
  7.4
  5.5
  4.1
  3.2
  2.4
  1.9
  1.5
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
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  0.0

YogaWorks, Inc. is a yoga instruction company. The Company provides yoga instruction in the United States with 50 company-owned studios as well as its Internet-based digital media service, MyYogaWorks.com. Its classes are designed to safely challenge practitioners of all levels, making yoga accessible to a diverse population ranging from beginners and casual practitioners to seasoned yogis and professional athletes. It offers a broad range of yoga disciplines and levels from fast-paced flow to soothing restorative and integrated fitness classes. The Company has brands in six geographically dispersed United States markets: Los Angeles, Orange County (California), New York City, Northern California, Boston and Baltimore/Washington D.C. It offers six months and annual prepaid memberships. It also offers private classes for those who wish to receive one-on-one instruction. As of March 31, 2017, the Company owned and operated 50 yoga studios.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  YogaWorks (YOGA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.3
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 62.1%
Total Debt to Equity 62.1%
Interest Coverage -8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.1%
Return On Total Capital -19.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.2%
Return On Equity -29.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.3%
EBITDA Margin 1.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.8%
Operating Margin -14.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.6%
Net Profit Margin -18.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.2%
Effective Tax Rate -11.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

YOGA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the YOGA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $54.513945 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by YogaWorks. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of YogaWorks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our YOGA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for YOGA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of YogaWorks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of YogaWorks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of YOGA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 114.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for YOGA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14.6% for YogaWorks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for YogaWorks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the YOGA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for YOGA are equal to 52.8%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in YogaWorks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for YOGA is equal to -19.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $54.535177 million for YogaWorks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.369 million for YogaWorks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of YogaWorks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ 7 Cheap Stocks Under $7   [03:54PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ YogaWorks, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ YogaOne founders leaving company after recent acquisition   [Jun-18-18 12:02PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ What 2017's Worst IPOs Have in Common   [Dec-03-17 10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ California's growing YogaWorks stretches into Atlanta with studio deal   [12:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Yoga company enters Texas with acquisition of Houston chain   [Oct-25-17 09:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ IPO market making a comeback?   [Oct-06-17 05:12PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ YogaWorks Is a Meditation on Painfully Premature IPOs   [Oct-03-17 08:00AM  Bloomberg]

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