Intrinsic value of YPF ADR - YPF

Previous Close

$22.07

  Intrinsic Value

$4.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

Previous close

$22.07

 
Intrinsic value

$4.82

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of YPF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.55
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  13,446
  15,328
  17,336
  19,467
  21,718
  24,086
  26,570
  29,170
  31,884
  34,713
  37,659
  40,724
  43,910
  47,222
  50,664
  54,240
  57,957
  61,821
  65,840
  70,022
  74,374
  78,907
  83,629
  88,552
  93,685
  99,042
  104,634
  110,475
  116,576
  122,954
  129,623
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  13,704
  15,499
  17,404
  19,416
  21,533
  23,754
  26,078
  28,504
  31,034
  33,667
  36,407
  39,256
  42,217
  45,293
  48,490
  51,813
  55,268
  58,861
  62,599
  66,490
  70,542
  74,764
  79,165
  83,755
  88,544
  93,543
  98,764
  104,219
  109,921
  115,883
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  14,998
  13,704
  15,499
  17,404
  19,416
  21,533
  23,754
  26,078
  28,504
  31,034
  33,667
  36,407
  39,256
  42,217
  45,293
  48,490
  51,813
  55,268
  58,861
  62,599
  66,490
  70,542
  74,764
  79,165
  83,755
  88,544
  93,543
  98,764
  104,219
  109,921
  115,883
Operating income, $m
  -1,552
  1,625
  1,838
  2,064
  2,302
  2,553
  2,816
  3,092
  3,380
  3,680
  3,992
  4,317
  4,655
  5,006
  5,370
  5,749
  6,143
  6,553
  6,979
  7,422
  7,884
  8,364
  8,865
  9,386
  9,931
  10,498
  11,091
  11,710
  12,357
  13,033
  13,740
EBITDA, $m
  1,358
  4,959
  5,609
  6,298
  7,027
  7,793
  8,597
  9,438
  10,316
  11,231
  12,184
  13,176
  14,207
  15,278
  16,392
  17,549
  18,751
  20,002
  21,302
  22,655
  24,063
  25,529
  27,057
  28,650
  30,311
  32,044
  33,853
  35,743
  37,717
  39,780
  41,938
Interest expense (income), $m
  1,045
  1,097
  1,415
  1,756
  2,119
  2,502
  2,905
  3,328
  3,770
  4,232
  4,713
  5,215
  5,736
  6,278
  6,842
  7,428
  8,036
  8,669
  9,326
  10,010
  10,722
  11,463
  12,234
  13,037
  13,875
  14,749
  15,660
  16,612
  17,606
  18,644
  19,730
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1,907
  528
  423
  307
  183
  51
  -88
  -236
  -390
  -552
  -722
  -898
  -1,082
  -1,273
  -1,472
  -1,678
  -1,893
  -2,116
  -2,347
  -2,588
  -2,838
  -3,098
  -3,369
  -3,651
  -3,945
  -4,250
  -4,569
  -4,902
  -5,249
  -5,611
  -5,990
Tax expense, $m
  -91
  143
  114
  83
  49
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -1,807
  385
  309
  224
  134
  37
  -88
  -236
  -390
  -552
  -722
  -898
  -1,082
  -1,273
  -1,472
  -1,678
  -1,893
  -2,116
  -2,347
  -2,588
  -2,838
  -3,098
  -3,369
  -3,651
  -3,945
  -4,250
  -4,569
  -4,902
  -5,249
  -5,611
  -5,990

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,172
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  26,953
  29,365
  33,212
  37,293
  41,605
  46,142
  50,901
  55,881
  61,080
  66,501
  72,144
  78,015
  84,120
  90,464
  97,057
  103,908
  111,029
  118,432
  126,131
  134,141
  142,479
  151,162
  160,209
  169,639
  179,474
  189,736
  200,449
  211,637
  223,326
  235,545
  248,320
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  25,781
  29,365
  33,212
  37,293
  41,605
  46,142
  50,901
  55,881
  61,080
  66,501
  72,144
  78,015
  84,120
  90,464
  97,057
  103,908
  111,029
  118,432
  126,131
  134,141
  142,479
  151,162
  160,209
  169,639
  179,474
  189,736
  200,449
  211,637
  223,326
  235,545
  248,320
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
Average production assets, $m
  19,018
  21,674
  24,514
  27,527
  30,709
  34,058
  37,570
  41,246
  45,084
  49,085
  53,250
  57,584
  62,089
  66,772
  71,638
  76,695
  81,951
  87,415
  93,098
  99,011
  105,165
  111,574
  118,251
  125,212
  132,471
  140,046
  147,953
  156,211
  164,839
  173,857
  183,287
Working capital, $m
  304
  966
  1,092
  1,226
  1,368
  1,517
  1,674
  1,838
  2,009
  2,187
  2,373
  2,566
  2,766
  2,975
  3,192
  3,417
  3,651
  3,895
  4,148
  4,411
  4,686
  4,971
  5,269
  5,579
  5,902
  6,240
  6,592
  6,960
  7,344
  7,746
  8,166
Total debt, $m
  9,878
  11,227
  13,939
  16,817
  19,856
  23,055
  26,410
  29,921
  33,587
  37,408
  41,387
  45,526
  49,829
  54,302
  58,950
  63,780
  68,800
  74,019
  79,447
  85,094
  90,973
  97,094
  103,472
  110,121
  117,054
  124,289
  131,842
  139,729
  147,970
  156,584
  165,591
Total liabilities, $m
  19,352
  20,702
  23,414
  26,292
  29,331
  32,530
  35,885
  39,396
  43,062
  46,883
  50,862
  55,001
  59,304
  63,777
  68,425
  73,255
  78,275
  83,494
  88,922
  94,569
  100,448
  106,569
  112,947
  119,596
  126,529
  133,764
  141,317
  149,204
  157,445
  166,059
  175,066
Total equity, $m
  7,600
  8,663
  9,797
  11,002
  12,273
  13,612
  15,016
  16,485
  18,019
  19,618
  21,283
  23,015
  24,815
  26,687
  28,632
  30,653
  32,753
  34,937
  37,209
  39,572
  42,031
  44,593
  47,262
  50,044
  52,945
  55,972
  59,132
  62,433
  65,881
  69,486
  73,255
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  26,952
  29,365
  33,211
  37,294
  41,604
  46,142
  50,901
  55,881
  61,081
  66,501
  72,145
  78,016
  84,119
  90,464
  97,057
  103,908
  111,028
  118,431
  126,131
  134,141
  142,479
  151,162
  160,209
  169,640
  179,474
  189,736
  200,449
  211,637
  223,326
  235,545
  248,321
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.300
  1.300
  1.420
  1.530
  1.620
  1.690
  1.760
  1.820
  1.860
  1.910
  1.940
  1.980
  2.010
  2.030
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.180
  2.190
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.250
  2.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.249
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1,807
  385
  309
  224
  134
  37
  -88
  -236
  -390
  -552
  -722
  -898
  -1,082
  -1,273
  -1,472
  -1,678
  -1,893
  -2,116
  -2,347
  -2,588
  -2,838
  -3,098
  -3,369
  -3,651
  -3,945
  -4,250
  -4,569
  -4,902
  -5,249
  -5,611
  -5,990
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2,910
  3,335
  3,771
  4,235
  4,724
  5,240
  5,780
  6,346
  6,936
  7,551
  8,192
  8,859
  9,552
  10,273
  11,021
  11,799
  12,608
  13,449
  14,323
  15,232
  16,179
  17,165
  18,193
  19,263
  20,380
  21,546
  22,762
  24,032
  25,360
  26,747
  28,198
Funds from operations, $m
  2,195
  3,720
  4,080
  4,459
  4,858
  5,277
  5,692
  6,110
  6,546
  6,999
  7,471
  7,961
  8,470
  9,000
  9,550
  10,121
  10,715
  11,333
  11,975
  12,644
  13,341
  14,067
  14,823
  15,612
  16,436
  17,295
  18,193
  19,131
  20,111
  21,136
  22,209
Change in working capital, $m
  -943
  119
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  352
  368
  384
  402
  420
Cash from operations, $m
  3,138
  3,601
  3,954
  4,325
  4,716
  5,128
  5,535
  5,946
  6,375
  6,821
  7,285
  7,768
  8,270
  8,791
  9,333
  9,896
  10,481
  11,089
  11,722
  12,381
  13,067
  13,781
  14,526
  15,302
  16,112
  16,958
  17,841
  18,763
  19,727
  20,734
  21,788
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2,926
  -3,335
  -3,771
  -4,235
  -4,724
  -5,240
  -5,780
  -6,346
  -6,936
  -7,551
  -8,192
  -8,859
  -9,552
  -10,273
  -11,021
  -11,799
  -12,608
  -13,449
  -14,323
  -15,232
  -16,179
  -17,165
  -18,193
  -19,263
  -20,380
  -21,546
  -22,762
  -24,032
  -25,360
  -26,747
New CAPEX, $m
  -4,106
  -2,657
  -2,839
  -3,013
  -3,182
  -3,349
  -3,513
  -3,676
  -3,838
  -4,001
  -4,166
  -4,334
  -4,506
  -4,683
  -4,866
  -5,057
  -5,256
  -5,464
  -5,683
  -5,913
  -6,154
  -6,409
  -6,677
  -6,961
  -7,259
  -7,575
  -7,907
  -8,258
  -8,628
  -9,018
  -9,430
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4,235
  -5,583
  -6,174
  -6,784
  -7,417
  -8,073
  -8,753
  -9,456
  -10,184
  -10,937
  -11,717
  -12,526
  -13,365
  -14,235
  -15,139
  -16,078
  -17,055
  -18,072
  -19,132
  -20,236
  -21,386
  -22,588
  -23,842
  -25,154
  -26,522
  -27,955
  -29,453
  -31,020
  -32,660
  -34,378
  -36,177
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,097
  -1,981
  -2,220
  -2,459
  -2,701
  -2,945
  -3,217
  -3,510
  -3,809
  -4,116
  -4,432
  -4,758
  -5,095
  -5,444
  -5,806
  -6,182
  -6,574
  -6,983
  -7,409
  -7,854
  -8,320
  -8,807
  -9,317
  -9,851
  -10,410
  -10,997
  -11,612
  -12,257
  -12,934
  -13,644
  -14,389
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,794
  2,521
  2,712
  2,878
  3,040
  3,199
  3,355
  3,511
  3,666
  3,821
  3,979
  4,139
  4,303
  4,473
  4,648
  4,830
  5,020
  5,219
  5,428
  5,647
  5,878
  6,121
  6,378
  6,648
  6,934
  7,235
  7,552
  7,888
  8,241
  8,614
  9,007
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  677
  826
  980
  1,138
  1,301
  1,492
  1,705
  1,924
  2,151
  2,386
  2,630
  2,882
  3,144
  3,417
  3,699
  3,993
  4,300
  4,619
  4,951
  5,298
  5,660
  6,038
  6,433
  6,846
  7,278
  7,729
  8,202
  8,697
  9,215
  9,758
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  749
  3,198
  3,538
  3,858
  4,178
  4,500
  4,847
  5,216
  5,590
  5,972
  6,365
  6,769
  7,185
  7,617
  8,065
  8,529
  9,013
  9,519
  10,047
  10,598
  11,176
  11,781
  12,416
  13,081
  13,780
  14,513
  15,281
  16,090
  16,938
  17,829
  18,765
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -239
  1,217
  1,318
  1,398
  1,477
  1,554
  1,630
  1,706
  1,781
  1,857
  1,933
  2,011
  2,091
  2,173
  2,258
  2,347
  2,439
  2,536
  2,637
  2,744
  2,856
  2,974
  3,099
  3,230
  3,369
  3,515
  3,670
  3,833
  4,004
  4,185
  4,376
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  106
  -1,063
  -1,135
  -1,204
  -1,272
  -1,338
  -1,492
  -1,705
  -1,924
  -2,151
  -2,386
  -2,630
  -2,882
  -3,144
  -3,417
  -3,699
  -3,993
  -4,300
  -4,619
  -4,951
  -5,298
  -5,660
  -6,038
  -6,433
  -6,846
  -7,278
  -7,729
  -8,202
  -8,697
  -9,215
  -9,758
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  154
  183
  194
  205
  216
  138
  1
  -143
  -294
  -453
  -619
  -791
  -971
  -1,158
  -1,352
  -1,554
  -1,764
  -1,981
  -2,207
  -2,442
  -2,685
  -2,939
  -3,203
  -3,477
  -3,762
  -4,060
  -4,370
  -4,693
  -5,030
  -5,382
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  146
  162
  160
  156
  151
  88
  1
  -74
  -135
  -183
  -218
  -241
  -251
  -252
  -245
  -230
  -211
  -188
  -164
  -139
  -115
  -93
  -73
  -56
  -42
  -31
  -22
  -15
  -10
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.8
  85.6
  78.8
  72.2
  66.1
  60.3
  54.9
  49.8
  45.1
  40.8
  36.8
  33.2
  29.9
  26.9
  24.1
  21.7
  19.4
  17.4
  15.6
  14.0
  12.5
  11.2
  10.0
  8.9
  8.0
  7.1
  6.3
  5.7
  5.0
  4.5

YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) is an energy company. The Company is operating a fully integrated oil and gas chain. The Company operates through the segments, including Exploration and Production, Downstream, and Corporate and Other. The Company's Exploration and Production segment includes exploration and production activities, natural gas and crude oil purchases, sales of natural gas, and to a lesser extent crude oil, to third parties and intersegment sales of crude oil, natural gas and its byproducts. The Company's Downstream segment is engaged in the refining, transport, purchase of crude oil and natural gas from third parties and intersegment sales, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined products, petrochemicals, electric power generation and natural gas distribution. The Company's Corporate and Other segment carries out other activities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  YPF ADR (YPF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.8
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 34.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 107.4%
Total Debt to Equity 130%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital -11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Equity -23.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
EBITDA Margin 15.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Operating Margin -11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -14.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin -13.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 4.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.8%
Payout Ratio -3.2%

YPF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the YPF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13446 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by YPF ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of YPF ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our YPF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for YPF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of YPF ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of YPF ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of YPF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for YPF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.6% for YPF ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for YPF ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the YPF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for YPF are equal to 141.4%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in YPF ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for YPF is equal to 6.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7600 million for YPF ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 394.164 million for YPF ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of YPF ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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TOT Total ADR 55.68 9.60  str.sell
BP BP ADR 39.64 6.36  str.sell
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CEO CNOOC ADR 135.49 29.66  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ YPF Sociedad Anonima Sees IBD RS Rating Rise To 74   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ The Dangers Of A Bullish Oil Market   [Nov-14-17 03:00PM  Oilprice.com]
▶ Oil Price Rally Accelerates Shale Boom In Argentina   [Sep-29-17 10:49AM  Oilprice.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to YPF SA : September 27, 2017   [Sep-27-17 10:44AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to YPF SA : September 14, 2017   [Sep-13-17 10:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Petrobras 2Q Earnings Disappoint, Stock Falls   [Aug-11-17 03:11PM  Barrons.com]
▶ How Chevron Stock Has Performed ahead of 2Q17 Earnings   [Jul-20-17 06:06PM  Market Realist]
▶ Shells Beta: Could the Stock Pop in a Rising Market?   [Jun-19-17 09:07AM  Market Realist]
▶ YPF SA reports   [Jun-07-17 12:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to YPF SA : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ OPEC Oil Cuts? Saudis, Russia, Iran & Even China Agree   [May-08-17 02:58PM  Barrons.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to YPF SA : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 15 Latin American Stocks To Own Now   [Apr-18-17 03:02PM  Barrons.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to YPF SA : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ [$$] OxyChem Backs New Maxus Chapter 11 Plan   [Mar-29-17 12:52PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Deciphering Todays Oil Markets   [Mar-14-17 03:33PM  Oilprice.com]
▶ Should You Sell YPF (YPF) Before Earnings?   [Mar-01-17 08:55AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to YPF SA : January 11, 2017   [Jan-11-17 01:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ [$$] Oil and Gas Firms Pledge $5 Billion in Investments in Argentina This Year   [Jan-10-17 12:39PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ ETFs with exposure to YPF SA : December 9, 2016   [Dec-09-16 12:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is YPF SA (ADR) (YPF) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-02-16 07:39AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Are Hedge Fund Short Sellers, Not OPEC, Driving Oil Price?   [Nov-22-16 10:53AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ OPEC Talks Cuts Thursday In Doha, Oil Weakens   [Nov-16-16 06:09PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Trump & Energy: What's Next For Oil, Iran?   [Nov-09-16 10:00AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Maxus Wins More Time to File Chapter 11 Plan   [Oct-21-16 10:43AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Argentina: How To Invest In Inflation & Recovery   [Sep-26-16 10:10AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Maxus Energy Defends Environmental Settlement With Parent   [Aug-30-16 10:11PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Maxus Energy Defends Environmental Settlement With Parent   [09:31PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] OxyChem Takes Aim at Maxus Loans   [Aug-05-16 03:05PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Argentina: YPF Oil Earnings Weak, Stock Lower   [11:58AM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of YPF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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