Intrinsic value of Yatra Online - YTRA

Previous Close

$4.28

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$4.28

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of YTRA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.60
  28.04
  25.74
  23.66
  21.80
  20.12
  18.60
  17.24
  16.02
  14.92
  13.93
  13.03
  12.23
  11.51
  10.86
  10.27
  9.74
  9.27
  8.84
  8.46
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
Revenue, $m
  246
  315
  396
  489
  596
  716
  849
  995
  1,155
  1,327
  1,512
  1,709
  1,918
  2,138
  2,371
  2,614
  2,869
  3,135
  3,412
  3,700
  4,001
  4,313
  4,637
  4,974
  5,324
  5,688
  6,067
  6,461
  6,870
  7,296
Variable operating expenses, $m
  294
  376
  472
  583
  709
  851
  1,008
  1,182
  1,370
  1,574
  1,790
  2,023
  2,270
  2,531
  2,806
  3,095
  3,396
  3,711
  4,039
  4,381
  4,736
  5,105
  5,489
  5,888
  6,303
  6,734
  7,182
  7,648
  8,133
  8,638
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  294
  376
  472
  583
  709
  851
  1,008
  1,182
  1,370
  1,574
  1,790
  2,023
  2,270
  2,531
  2,806
  3,095
  3,396
  3,711
  4,039
  4,381
  4,736
  5,105
  5,489
  5,888
  6,303
  6,734
  7,182
  7,648
  8,133
  8,638
Operating income, $m
  -49
  -61
  -76
  -93
  -113
  -135
  -159
  -186
  -216
  -247
  -278
  -314
  -353
  -393
  -436
  -481
  -527
  -576
  -627
  -680
  -735
  -793
  -852
  -914
  -979
  -1,046
  -1,115
  -1,188
  -1,263
  -1,341
EBITDA, $m
  -41
  -52
  -65
  -81
  -98
  -118
  -140
  -164
  -191
  -219
  -249
  -282
  -316
  -353
  -391
  -431
  -473
  -517
  -563
  -611
  -660
  -712
  -765
  -821
  -879
  -939
  -1,001
  -1,066
  -1,134
  -1,204
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  3
  5
  8
  12
  17
  22
  28
  34
  41
  49
  58
  67
  76
  86
  97
  108
  120
  133
  146
  159
  173
  188
  203
  219
  235
  252
  270
  288
  307
  327
Earnings before tax, $m
  -52
  -66
  -84
  -106
  -130
  -157
  -187
  -221
  -257
  -297
  -335
  -381
  -429
  -479
  -533
  -589
  -648
  -709
  -773
  -839
  -909
  -981
  -1,055
  -1,133
  -1,214
  -1,298
  -1,385
  -1,476
  -1,570
  -1,669
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -52
  -66
  -84
  -106
  -130
  -157
  -187
  -221
  -257
  -297
  -335
  -381
  -429
  -479
  -533
  -589
  -648
  -709
  -773
  -839
  -909
  -981
  -1,055
  -1,133
  -1,214
  -1,298
  -1,385
  -1,476
  -1,570
  -1,669

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  233
  299
  375
  464
  565
  679
  805
  944
  1,095
  1,259
  1,434
  1,621
  1,819
  2,029
  2,249
  2,480
  2,722
  2,974
  3,237
  3,511
  3,796
  4,092
  4,399
  4,719
  5,052
  5,397
  5,756
  6,130
  6,518
  6,923
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  233
  299
  375
  464
  565
  679
  805
  944
  1,095
  1,259
  1,434
  1,621
  1,819
  2,029
  2,249
  2,480
  2,722
  2,974
  3,237
  3,511
  3,796
  4,092
  4,399
  4,719
  5,052
  5,397
  5,756
  6,130
  6,518
  6,923
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.056
  1.054
  1.056
  1.054
  1.055
  1.054
  1.055
  1.054
  1.055
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
  1.054
Average production assets, $m
  23
  30
  37
  46
  56
  67
  80
  94
  109
  125
  142
  161
  180
  201
  223
  246
  270
  295
  321
  348
  376
  405
  436
  468
  500
  535
  570
  607
  646
  686
Working capital, $m
  -18
  -24
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -100
  -113
  -128
  -144
  -160
  -178
  -196
  -215
  -235
  -256
  -278
  -300
  -323
  -348
  -373
  -399
  -427
  -455
  -485
  -515
  -547
Total debt, $m
  87
  146
  215
  295
  386
  489
  602
  727
  863
  1,011
  1,168
  1,337
  1,515
  1,703
  1,902
  2,110
  2,327
  2,554
  2,791
  3,037
  3,294
  3,560
  3,837
  4,125
  4,424
  4,735
  5,058
  5,394
  5,744
  6,108
Total liabilities, $m
  210
  269
  338
  418
  509
  611
  725
  850
  986
  1,133
  1,291
  1,459
  1,638
  1,826
  2,024
  2,232
  2,450
  2,677
  2,913
  3,160
  3,416
  3,683
  3,959
  4,247
  4,546
  4,857
  5,180
  5,517
  5,866
  6,230
Total equity, $m
  23
  30
  38
  46
  57
  68
  81
  94
  110
  126
  143
  162
  182
  203
  225
  248
  272
  297
  324
  351
  380
  409
  440
  472
  505
  540
  576
  613
  652
  692
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  233
  299
  376
  464
  566
  679
  806
  944
  1,096
  1,259
  1,434
  1,621
  1,820
  2,029
  2,249
  2,480
  2,722
  2,974
  3,237
  3,511
  3,796
  4,092
  4,399
  4,719
  5,051
  5,397
  5,756
  6,130
  6,518
  6,922
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.750
  4.900
  5.740
  6.360
  6.830
  7.200
  7.480
  7.700
  7.880
  8.030
  8.150
  8.240
  8.330
  8.400
  8.460
  8.510
  8.550
  8.590
  8.620
  8.650
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.760
  8.770
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -52
  -66
  -84
  -106
  -130
  -157
  -187
  -221
  -257
  -297
  -335
  -381
  -429
  -479
  -533
  -589
  -648
  -709
  -773
  -839
  -909
  -981
  -1,055
  -1,133
  -1,214
  -1,298
  -1,385
  -1,476
  -1,570
  -1,669
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
Funds from operations, $m
  -44
  -57
  -74
  -93
  -115
  -140
  -168
  -199
  -232
  -268
  -307
  -349
  -393
  -439
  -488
  -540
  -594
  -650
  -709
  -770
  -833
  -899
  -968
  -1,040
  -1,114
  -1,191
  -1,271
  -1,355
  -1,441
  -1,532
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
Cash from operations, $m
  -40
  -52
  -68
  -86
  -107
  -131
  -158
  -188
  -220
  -255
  -293
  -334
  -377
  -423
  -471
  -522
  -575
  -630
  -688
  -748
  -811
  -876
  -944
  -1,014
  -1,088
  -1,164
  -1,243
  -1,325
  -1,411
  -1,500
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -134
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
Free cash flow, $m
  -49
  -63
  -81
  -102
  -126
  -154
  -184
  -217
  -254
  -293
  -336
  -381
  -429
  -480
  -533
  -589
  -648
  -709
  -773
  -839
  -909
  -981
  -1,055
  -1,133
  -1,214
  -1,298
  -1,385
  -1,476
  -1,571
  -1,669
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  28
  59
  69
  80
  91
  102
  114
  125
  136
  147
  158
  168
  178
  188
  198
  208
  217
  227
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  299
  311
  323
  336
  350
  364
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  79
  73
  92
  115
  140
  168
  200
  235
  272
  313
  353
  399
  449
  500
  555
  612
  672
  734
  799
  867
  937
  1,010
  1,086
  1,165
  1,247
  1,332
  1,421
  1,513
  1,609
  1,709
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  107
  132
  161
  195
  231
  270
  314
  360
  408
  460
  511
  567
  627
  688
  753
  820
  889
  961
  1,036
  1,113
  1,193
  1,276
  1,363
  1,453
  1,546
  1,643
  1,744
  1,849
  1,959
  2,073
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  58
  69
  80
  92
  105
  117
  130
  142
  155
  167
  175
  187
  198
  209
  220
  231
  242
  252
  263
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  332
  345
  359
  373
  389
  404
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -79
  -73
  -92
  -115
  -140
  -168
  -200
  -235
  -272
  -313
  -353
  -399
  -449
  -500
  -555
  -612
  -672
  -734
  -799
  -867
  -937
  -1,010
  -1,086
  -1,165
  -1,247
  -1,332
  -1,421
  -1,513
  -1,609
  -1,709
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -21
  -4
  -12
  -22
  -35
  -51
  -70
  -92
  -118
  -146
  -178
  -213
  -250
  -291
  -335
  -381
  -430
  -482
  -536
  -593
  -652
  -714
  -778
  -845
  -915
  -987
  -1,062
  -1,140
  -1,221
  -1,305
Discount rate, %
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -19
  -3
  -9
  -15
  -22
  -28
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -41
  -38
  -34
  -30
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  12.1
  3.0
  0.7
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Yatra Online, Inc. is an India-based consumer travel platform and online travel agent. The Company’s segments include Air Ticketing, Hotels and Packages, and Others. Through Internet and mobile-based platform and call-centers, the Company provides the facility to book and service international and domestic air tickets to customer through business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business-to-consumer (B2B2C) channel. Through an Internet and mobile-based platform, call-centers and branch offices, the Company provides holiday packages and hotel reservations. The Other segment includes the advertisement income from hosting advertisements on its Internet Websites, income from sale of rail and bus tickets, and income from facilitating Website access to travel insurance companies. It offers multiple mobile applications for a range of consumer segments and services, including Yatra, Yatra Mini, Yatra Web Check-In, Yatra Corporate, Travelguru HomeStay and Yatra Hoteliers DESTranet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Yatra Online (YTRA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.6
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -6
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 46.8%
Interest Coverage -87
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -78%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.5%
Return On Total Capital -209.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -126.8%
Return On Equity -332.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -208.7%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.9%
EBITDA Margin -59.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.5%
Operating Margin -65%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -62.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.1%
Net Profit Margin -62.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.5%
Effective Tax Rate -1.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

YTRA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the YTRA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $188.149201229 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Yatra Online. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Yatra Online. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our YTRA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for YTRA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Yatra Online, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Yatra Online.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of YTRA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 120.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for YTRA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Yatra Online.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Yatra Online. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the YTRA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for YTRA are equal to 9.4%.

Life of production assets of 5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Yatra Online operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for YTRA is equal to -7.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-3.4549615975 million for Yatra Online - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.804 million for Yatra Online is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Yatra Online at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Yatra Appoints Ms. Neelam Dhawan as Independent Director   [Nov-28-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Yatra Introduces 'Flexi Stay' at Hotels in India   [Oct-15-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Stocks in Focus on New Analyst Coverage   [Jul-24-18 01:43PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ The Archaeological Survey of India Signs MoU With Yatra   [May-30-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Yatra.com Launches 'YUVA', a Universal Virtual Assistant   [May-01-18 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Who Are Yatra Capital Limiteds (AMS:YATRA) Major Shareholders?   [Mar-22-18 08:08AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Yatra Appoints Sean Aggarwal to Board of Directors   [Feb-22-18 08:33AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Yatra Online (YTRA) Jumps: Stock Rises 5.1%   [Feb-06-18 08:45AM  Zacks]
▶ Yatra Online Is a Long-Term Value Creator   [Oct-03-17 12:36PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Yatra Partners with OYO   [Oct-02-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Yatra Completes 11 Successful Years in India   [Jul-31-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]

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