Intrinsic value of ZAGG - ZAGG

Previous Close

$10.67

  Intrinsic Value

$28.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+170%

Previous close

$10.67

 
Intrinsic value

$28.81

 
Up/down potential

+170%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZAGG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  535
  551
  569
  589
  610
  633
  658
  684
  712
  742
  774
  807
  843
  881
  920
  962
  1,007
  1,054
  1,103
  1,155
  1,210
  1,268
  1,328
  1,392
  1,460
  1,530
  1,605
  1,683
  1,765
  1,852
Variable operating expenses, $m
  235
  242
  249
  258
  267
  277
  287
  299
  311
  324
  332
  346
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  452
  473
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  657
  689
  722
  758
  795
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  257
  262
  268
  274
  280
  286
  292
  299
  305
  312
  319
  326
  333
  340
  348
  356
  363
  371
  380
  388
  396
  405
  414
  423
  432
  442
  452
  462
  472
  482
Total operating expenses, $m
  492
  504
  517
  532
  547
  563
  579
  598
  616
  636
  651
  672
  695
  718
  743
  769
  795
  823
  853
  884
  915
  949
  984
  1,020
  1,058
  1,099
  1,141
  1,184
  1,230
  1,277
Operating income, $m
  44
  47
  52
  57
  64
  70
  78
  87
  96
  107
  123
  135
  148
  162
  178
  194
  211
  230
  250
  272
  294
  319
  344
  372
  401
  432
  465
  499
  536
  575
EBITDA, $m
  58
  62
  67
  73
  79
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  136
  149
  163
  178
  193
  211
  229
  248
  269
  291
  315
  340
  367
  396
  426
  458
  492
  528
  566
  607
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  41
  45
  49
  54
  60
  67
  74
  82
  91
  101
  117
  128
  141
  154
  169
  184
  201
  219
  238
  258
  280
  303
  328
  354
  382
  412
  443
  476
  512
  549
Tax expense, $m
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
Net income, $m
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  74
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  147
  160
  174
  189
  204
  221
  239
  259
  279
  301
  323
  348
  374
  401

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  330
  340
  352
  364
  377
  391
  406
  423
  440
  458
  478
  499
  521
  544
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  713
  747
  783
  820
  860
  902
  945
  991
  1,040
  1,090
  1,144
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  330
  340
  352
  364
  377
  391
  406
  423
  440
  458
  478
  499
  521
  544
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  713
  747
  783
  820
  860
  902
  945
  991
  1,040
  1,090
  1,144
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.621
  1.621
  1.616
  1.618
  1.618
  1.619
  1.621
  1.617
  1.618
  1.620
  1.619
  1.617
  1.618
  1.619
  1.617
  1.617
  1.619
  1.619
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.619
  1.620
  1.619
  1.619
  1.619
  1.620
  1.618
  1.619
  1.619
Average production assets, $m
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
Working capital, $m
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
Total debt, $m
  43
  49
  55
  62
  70
  78
  87
  96
  106
  117
  128
  140
  153
  166
  180
  195
  211
  228
  245
  264
  283
  304
  325
  348
  372
  397
  424
  452
  481
  512
Total liabilities, $m
  190
  196
  203
  210
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  300
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
  451
  473
  495
  519
  544
  571
  599
  628
  659
Total equity, $m
  140
  144
  149
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  187
  194
  203
  211
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  401
  420
  441
  462
  485
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  330
  340
  352
  364
  377
  391
  406
  422
  440
  458
  478
  498
  521
  544
  568
  594
  622
  651
  681
  714
  747
  783
  821
  860
  901
  945
  991
  1,040
  1,090
  1,144
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.310
  0.340
  0.370
  0.400
  0.440
  0.470
  0.500
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.720
  0.750
  0.770
  0.800
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  74
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  147
  160
  174
  189
  204
  221
  239
  259
  279
  301
  323
  348
  374
  401
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
Funds from operations, $m
  45
  48
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  77
  84
  92
  98
  107
  117
  128
  139
  151
  164
  178
  193
  208
  225
  243
  262
  282
  304
  327
  351
  377
  404
  433
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  104
  113
  124
  135
  147
  159
  173
  187
  203
  219
  237
  256
  276
  297
  319
  343
  368
  395
  423
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -37
Free cash flow, $m
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  67
  73
  80
  88
  96
  106
  116
  127
  139
  152
  165
  179
  195
  211
  229
  247
  267
  288
  310
  334
  359
  386
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  39
  41
  44
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  100
  109
  119
  130
  142
  155
  168
  183
  198
  214
  232
  250
  270
  291
  313
  337
  362
  388
  416
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  35
  37
  40
  43
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  91
  100
  109
  120
  131
  143
  156
  170
  184
  200
  217
  234
  253
  273
  295
  317
  341
  367
  394
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  40
  39
  39
  38
  37
  35
  33
  31
  29
  26
  23
  21
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ZAGG Inc (ZAGG) designs, produces and distributes professional product solutions for mobile devices, including screen protection (glass and film), keyboards for tablet computers and mobile devices, keyboard cases, earbuds, mobile power solutions, cables, and cases under the ZAGG and InvisibleShield brands. In addition, the Company designs, produces and distributes earbuds, headphones, mobile power solutions, Bluetooth speakers, cases and cables for mobile devices under the iFrogz brand in the fashion and youth oriented lifestyle sector. The Company designs product solutions for users of mobile devices, and sells these products to consumers through global distribution partners and online. The Company offers products for various market segments of handheld electronic devices, including smartphones, tablets, notebook computers, laptops, gaming devices, global positioning system (GPS) devices, watch faces, and similar devices and surfaces.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ZAGG (ZAGG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -18.7
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 49.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1560%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 94.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 8.5%
Total Debt to Equity 43.6%
Interest Coverage -11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Total Capital -10.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity -12.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Operating Margin -5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin -4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZAGG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZAGG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $519.495 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ZAGG. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of ZAGG. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZAGG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ZAGG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ZAGG, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ZAGG.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZAGG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 43.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $251 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZAGG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for ZAGG.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ZAGG. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZAGG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZAGG are equal to 8.6%.

Life of production assets of 3.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ZAGG operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZAGG is equal to 10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $135.999 million for ZAGG - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.159 million for ZAGG is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ZAGG at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Zagg (ZAGG) Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates   [Nov-06-18 07:45PM  Zacks]
▶ Zagg: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks To Play Following Apple's Product Event   [Oct-31-18 01:55PM  Benzinga]
▶ ZAGG to Host Investor & Analyst Day   [Aug-29-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is ZAGG Inc (NASDAQ:ZAGG) Undervalued?   [Aug-18-18 10:43AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ZAGG Inc Names Jim Kearns Chief Operating Officer   [Aug-13-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Zagg: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-31-18 06:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Zagg Inc to Host Earnings Call   [03:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Zagg Q2 Earnings Preview   [08:22AM  Benzinga]
▶ Todd Heiner Resigns from ZAGG Inc Board of Directors   [Jul-30-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ZAGG to Report Second Quarter 2018 Results on July 31, 2018   [Jul-24-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Celebrate Trumps 2nd Year in Office With These 5 Winners   [Jul-09-18 02:35PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for July 3rd   [Jul-03-18 09:53AM  Zacks]
▶ Top 10 Stocks Under $20   [Jun-25-18 03:45PM  Zacks]
▶ mophie announces compact wireless charging accessories   [May-24-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Shares of ZAGG Inc. Rocketed Higher Today   [May-09-18 01:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Zagg: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ ZAGG Reports Record First Quarter 2018 Results   [May-08-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why ZAGG Shares Plunged Today   [12:27PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Zagg misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-07-18 04:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Zagg Inc to Host Earnings Call   [12:45PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Zagg Q4 Earnings Preview   [10:06AM  Benzinga]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Zagg, Inc. : December 27, 2017   [Dec-27-17 12:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 Strong Stocks We Loved Throughout 2017   [Dec-19-17 04:47PM  Zacks]
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▶ Anatomy of Success: ZAGG Inc. (ZAGG)   [Nov-20-17 02:49PM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Stocks Ripping Higher Ahead of Tax Reform   [Nov-14-17 04:32PM  Zacks]
▶ Bull Of The Day: Zagg (ZAGG)   [06:15AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for November 13th   [Nov-13-17 10:04AM  Zacks]

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