Intrinsic value of Zebra Technologies Cl A - ZBRA

Previous Close

$174.78

  Intrinsic Value

$55.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$174.78

 
Intrinsic value

$55.57

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZBRA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.90
  12.11
  11.40
  10.76
  10.18
  9.66
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
Revenue, $m
  4,202
  4,711
  5,248
  5,813
  6,405
  7,024
  7,670
  8,343
  9,044
  9,773
  10,531
  11,318
  12,137
  12,987
  13,871
  14,790
  15,746
  16,741
  17,777
  18,855
  19,979
  21,151
  22,373
  23,648
  24,980
  26,370
  27,823
  29,342
  30,931
  32,593
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,074
  4,534
  5,019
  5,530
  6,064
  6,624
  7,208
  7,816
  8,450
  9,108
  9,517
  10,229
  10,968
  11,737
  12,536
  13,367
  14,231
  15,130
  16,066
  17,040
  18,056
  19,115
  20,219
  21,372
  22,575
  23,832
  25,145
  26,518
  27,953
  29,455
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,074
  4,534
  5,019
  5,530
  6,064
  6,624
  7,208
  7,816
  8,450
  9,108
  9,517
  10,229
  10,968
  11,737
  12,536
  13,367
  14,231
  15,130
  16,066
  17,040
  18,056
  19,115
  20,219
  21,372
  22,575
  23,832
  25,145
  26,518
  27,953
  29,455
Operating income, $m
  128
  177
  229
  283
  340
  400
  462
  527
  594
  664
  1,014
  1,090
  1,168
  1,250
  1,335
  1,424
  1,516
  1,612
  1,711
  1,815
  1,923
  2,036
  2,154
  2,276
  2,405
  2,538
  2,678
  2,825
  2,977
  3,137
EBITDA, $m
  566
  635
  707
  783
  863
  946
  1,033
  1,124
  1,219
  1,317
  1,419
  1,525
  1,635
  1,750
  1,869
  1,993
  2,122
  2,256
  2,395
  2,541
  2,692
  2,850
  3,015
  3,187
  3,366
  3,553
  3,749
  3,954
  4,168
  4,392
Interest expense (income), $m
  180
  207
  248
  292
  338
  387
  438
  491
  546
  604
  664
  727
  792
  860
  930
  1,003
  1,079
  1,158
  1,241
  1,326
  1,415
  1,508
  1,604
  1,705
  1,810
  1,920
  2,034
  2,154
  2,279
  2,409
  2,546
Earnings before tax, $m
  -79
  -71
  -63
  -55
  -47
  -38
  -29
  -20
  -10
  0
  287
  297
  308
  320
  332
  344
  357
  371
  385
  400
  415
  432
  449
  466
  485
  504
  525
  546
  568
  592
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  160
Net income, $m
  -79
  -71
  -63
  -55
  -47
  -38
  -29
  -20
  -10
  0
  209
  217
  225
  234
  242
  251
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303
  315
  327
  340
  354
  368
  383
  399
  415
  432

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,824
  5,409
  6,025
  6,674
  7,353
  8,064
  8,806
  9,579
  10,383
  11,220
  12,090
  12,994
  13,934
  14,911
  15,926
  16,981
  18,079
  19,221
  20,410
  21,648
  22,938
  24,283
  25,687
  27,151
  28,679
  30,276
  31,944
  33,688
  35,512
  37,420
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,824
  5,409
  6,025
  6,674
  7,353
  8,064
  8,806
  9,579
  10,383
  11,220
  12,090
  12,994
  13,934
  14,911
  15,926
  16,981
  18,079
  19,221
  20,410
  21,648
  22,938
  24,283
  25,687
  27,151
  28,679
  30,276
  31,944
  33,688
  35,512
  37,420
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
Average production assets, $m
  1,925
  2,158
  2,404
  2,662
  2,933
  3,217
  3,513
  3,821
  4,142
  4,476
  4,823
  5,184
  5,559
  5,948
  6,353
  6,774
  7,212
  7,667
  8,142
  8,636
  9,150
  9,687
  10,247
  10,831
  11,441
  12,078
  12,743
  13,439
  14,166
  14,927
Working capital, $m
  59
  66
  73
  81
  90
  98
  107
  117
  127
  137
  147
  158
  170
  182
  194
  207
  220
  234
  249
  264
  280
  296
  313
  331
  350
  369
  390
  411
  433
  456
Total debt, $m
  2,670
  3,140
  3,636
  4,158
  4,705
  5,277
  5,874
  6,497
  7,144
  7,818
  8,519
  9,247
  10,003
  10,789
  11,606
  12,456
  13,339
  14,259
  15,216
  16,213
  17,251
  18,334
  19,464
  20,642
  21,873
  23,158
  24,501
  25,905
  27,373
  28,909
Total liabilities, $m
  3,884
  4,354
  4,850
  5,372
  5,919
  6,491
  7,088
  7,711
  8,358
  9,032
  9,733
  10,461
  11,217
  12,003
  12,820
  13,670
  14,553
  15,473
  16,430
  17,427
  18,465
  19,548
  20,678
  21,856
  23,087
  24,372
  25,715
  27,119
  28,587
  30,123
Total equity, $m
  941
  1,055
  1,175
  1,301
  1,434
  1,572
  1,717
  1,868
  2,025
  2,188
  2,358
  2,534
  2,717
  2,908
  3,106
  3,311
  3,525
  3,748
  3,980
  4,221
  4,473
  4,735
  5,009
  5,294
  5,592
  5,904
  6,229
  6,569
  6,925
  7,297
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,825
  5,409
  6,025
  6,673
  7,353
  8,063
  8,805
  9,579
  10,383
  11,220
  12,091
  12,995
  13,934
  14,911
  15,926
  16,981
  18,078
  19,221
  20,410
  21,648
  22,938
  24,283
  25,687
  27,150
  28,679
  30,276
  31,944
  33,688
  35,512
  37,420
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.840
  2.980
  3.090
  3.200
  3.280
  3.360
  3.420
  3.480
  3.530
  3.570
  3.610
  3.650
  3.680
  3.710
  3.740
  3.760
  3.780
  3.800
  3.820
  3.840
  3.860
  3.870
  3.890
  3.900
  3.910
  3.920
  3.930
  3.940
  3.950
  3.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -79
  -71
  -63
  -55
  -47
  -38
  -29
  -20
  -10
  0
  209
  217
  225
  234
  242
  251
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303
  315
  327
  340
  354
  368
  383
  399
  415
  432
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  438
  458
  478
  500
  523
  547
  572
  597
  624
  653
  405
  436
  467
  500
  534
  569
  606
  644
  684
  726
  769
  814
  861
  910
  961
  1,015
  1,071
  1,129
  1,190
  1,254
Funds from operations, $m
  359
  387
  415
  445
  476
  509
  543
  578
  614
  652
  615
  653
  692
  733
  776
  821
  867
  915
  965
  1,018
  1,072
  1,129
  1,189
  1,251
  1,315
  1,383
  1,454
  1,528
  1,605
  1,686
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  352
  379
  408
  437
  468
  500
  534
  568
  605
  642
  604
  642
  681
  721
  764
  808
  854
  901
  951
  1,003
  1,056
  1,113
  1,171
  1,233
  1,297
  1,364
  1,433
  1,507
  1,583
  1,663
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -143
  -162
  -181
  -202
  -224
  -246
  -270
  -295
  -321
  -348
  -376
  -405
  -436
  -467
  -500
  -534
  -569
  -606
  -644
  -684
  -726
  -769
  -814
  -861
  -910
  -961
  -1,015
  -1,071
  -1,129
  -1,190
New CAPEX, $m
  -221
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -271
  -283
  -296
  -308
  -321
  -334
  -347
  -361
  -375
  -390
  -405
  -421
  -438
  -456
  -474
  -494
  -515
  -537
  -560
  -584
  -610
  -637
  -666
  -696
  -728
  -761
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -364
  -395
  -427
  -461
  -495
  -529
  -566
  -603
  -642
  -682
  -723
  -766
  -811
  -857
  -905
  -955
  -1,007
  -1,062
  -1,118
  -1,178
  -1,241
  -1,306
  -1,374
  -1,445
  -1,520
  -1,598
  -1,681
  -1,767
  -1,857
  -1,951
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -15
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -288
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  443
  470
  496
  522
  547
  572
  597
  622
  648
  674
  700
  728
  756
  786
  817
  850
  884
  919
  957
  997
  1,039
  1,083
  1,129
  1,179
  1,231
  1,285
  1,343
  1,404
  1,468
  1,536
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  186
  185
  183
  181
  179
  176
  174
  170
  167
  163
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  629
  655
  679
  703
  726
  748
  771
  792
  815
  837
  700
  728
  756
  786
  817
  850
  884
  919
  957
  997
  1,039
  1,083
  1,129
  1,179
  1,231
  1,285
  1,343
  1,404
  1,468
  1,536
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  617
  640
  660
  680
  699
  719
  738
  758
  777
  797
  581
  603
  627
  651
  676
  702
  730
  759
  789
  821
  855
  890
  927
  966
  1,007
  1,051
  1,096
  1,144
  1,194
  1,247
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -186
  -185
  -183
  -181
  -179
  -176
  -174
  -170
  -167
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -252
  -262
  -274
  -286
  -298
  -311
  -325
  -340
  -356
  -372
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  431
  455
  477
  498
  520
  542
  565
  587
  610
  634
  411
  427
  443
  460
  478
  497
  516
  536
  557
  580
  603
  628
  654
  681
  709
  739
  771
  804
  839
  875
Discount rate, %
  9.40
  9.87
  10.36
  10.88
  11.43
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.58
  15.31
  16.08
  16.88
  17.73
  18.61
  19.54
  20.52
  21.54
  22.62
  23.75
  24.94
  26.19
  27.50
  28.87
  30.32
  31.83
  33.42
  35.09
  36.85
  38.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  394
  377
  355
  330
  303
  275
  246
  217
  189
  163
  86
  71
  58
  47
  37
  29
  22
  16
  12
  8
  6
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.8
  95.9
  94.3
  92.9
  91.6
  90.5
  89.5
  88.6
  87.8
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1
  87.1

Zebra Technologies Corporation designs, manufactures and sells a range of automatic identification and data capture (AIDC) products. The Company's AIDC products include mobile computers, barcode scanners, radio frequency identification (RFID) readers, wireless local area network (WLAN) products, specialty printers for barcode labeling and personal identification, real-time location systems (RTLS), related accessories and supplies, such as self-adhesive labels and other consumables, and utilities and application software. The Company operates through two segments: Enterprise, which comprises its mobile computing, data capture, RFID and WLAN products, and services, and Legacy Zebra, which comprises barcode and card printing, location solutions, supplies and services. The Company's products are used in automatic identification (auto ID), data collection and personal identification applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Zebra Technologies Cl A (ZBRA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -67.5
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 11.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 334.3%
Total Debt to Equity 334.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital -3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Return On Equity -16.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Operating Margin 2.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Net Profit Margin -3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Effective Tax Rate -6.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZBRA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZBRA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3722 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Zebra Technologies Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Zebra Technologies Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZBRA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.4%, whose default value for ZBRA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Zebra Technologies Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Zebra Technologies Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZBRA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZBRA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.3% for Zebra Technologies Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Zebra Technologies Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZBRA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZBRA are equal to 45.8%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Zebra Technologies Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZBRA is equal to 1.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $834 million for Zebra Technologies Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.692 million for Zebra Technologies Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Zebra Technologies Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.4 billion.

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