Intrinsic value of Zebra Technologies Corporation - ZBRA

Previous Close

$190.02

  Intrinsic Value

$375.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+98%

Previous close

$190.02

 
Intrinsic value

$375.98

 
Up/down potential

+98%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZBRA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.80
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  4,674
  5,151
  5,651
  6,172
  6,716
  7,281
  7,870
  8,482
  9,118
  9,778
  10,465
  11,179
  11,921
  12,693
  13,496
  14,332
  15,202
  16,109
  17,055
  18,042
  19,071
  20,145
  21,268
  22,440
  23,666
  24,948
  26,289
  27,692
  29,161
  30,699
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,929
  2,098
  2,275
  2,460
  2,652
  2,853
  3,061
  3,278
  3,504
  3,738
  3,708
  3,961
  4,224
  4,498
  4,782
  5,078
  5,387
  5,708
  6,043
  6,393
  6,758
  7,139
  7,536
  7,952
  8,386
  8,840
  9,315
  9,813
  10,333
  10,878
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,920
  1,963
  2,006
  2,050
  2,095
  2,141
  2,188
  2,236
  2,286
  2,336
  2,387
  2,440
  2,493
  2,548
  2,604
  2,662
  2,720
  2,780
  2,841
  2,904
  2,968
  3,033
  3,100
  3,168
  3,237
  3,309
  3,381
  3,456
  3,532
  3,610
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,849
  4,061
  4,281
  4,510
  4,747
  4,994
  5,249
  5,514
  5,790
  6,074
  6,095
  6,401
  6,717
  7,046
  7,386
  7,740
  8,107
  8,488
  8,884
  9,297
  9,726
  10,172
  10,636
  11,120
  11,623
  12,149
  12,696
  13,269
  13,865
  14,488
Operating income, $m
  824
  1,091
  1,370
  1,663
  1,968
  2,288
  2,620
  2,967
  3,329
  3,705
  4,370
  4,778
  5,203
  5,647
  6,109
  6,592
  7,095
  7,621
  8,171
  8,745
  9,346
  9,974
  10,632
  11,321
  12,043
  12,799
  13,592
  14,424
  15,296
  16,211
EBITDA, $m
  1,202
  1,479
  1,769
  2,074
  2,392
  2,724
  3,070
  3,430
  3,806
  4,197
  4,604
  5,029
  5,471
  5,932
  6,412
  6,913
  7,436
  7,983
  8,553
  9,150
  9,774
  10,426
  11,109
  11,825
  12,574
  13,359
  14,182
  15,045
  15,950
  16,900
Interest expense (income), $m
  180
  86
  103
  122
  141
  161
  182
  204
  226
  250
  274
  300
  326
  353
  382
  412
  443
  475
  508
  543
  579
  617
  657
  698
  741
  786
  834
  883
  934
  988
  1,045
Earnings before tax, $m
  739
  987
  1,248
  1,522
  1,807
  2,106
  2,417
  2,741
  3,079
  3,431
  4,070
  4,452
  4,850
  5,265
  5,698
  6,149
  6,621
  7,113
  7,628
  8,166
  8,728
  9,317
  9,934
  10,580
  11,256
  11,966
  12,709
  13,489
  14,308
  15,166
Tax expense, $m
  199
  267
  337
  411
  488
  569
  653
  740
  831
  926
  1,099
  1,202
  1,309
  1,422
  1,538
  1,660
  1,788
  1,921
  2,059
  2,205
  2,357
  2,516
  2,682
  2,857
  3,039
  3,231
  3,432
  3,642
  3,863
  4,095
Net income, $m
  539
  721
  911
  1,111
  1,319
  1,537
  1,764
  2,001
  2,248
  2,504
  2,971
  3,250
  3,540
  3,843
  4,159
  4,489
  4,833
  5,192
  5,568
  5,961
  6,372
  6,802
  7,252
  7,723
  8,217
  8,735
  9,278
  9,847
  10,445
  11,071

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,808
  5,300
  5,814
  6,350
  6,909
  7,491
  8,097
  8,726
  9,380
  10,060
  10,767
  11,501
  12,264
  13,058
  13,885
  14,745
  15,640
  16,574
  17,546
  18,561
  19,620
  20,726
  21,880
  23,087
  24,348
  25,667
  27,046
  28,490
  30,001
  31,583
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,808
  5,300
  5,814
  6,350
  6,909
  7,491
  8,097
  8,726
  9,380
  10,060
  10,767
  11,501
  12,264
  13,058
  13,885
  14,745
  15,640
  16,574
  17,546
  18,561
  19,620
  20,726
  21,880
  23,087
  24,348
  25,667
  27,046
  28,490
  30,001
  31,583
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
Average production assets, $m
  1,804
  1,988
  2,181
  2,382
  2,592
  2,811
  3,038
  3,274
  3,519
  3,774
  4,040
  4,315
  4,601
  4,899
  5,209
  5,532
  5,868
  6,218
  6,583
  6,964
  7,361
  7,776
  8,209
  8,662
  9,135
  9,630
  10,148
  10,689
  11,256
  11,850
Working capital, $m
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
Total debt, $m
  1,914
  2,254
  2,610
  2,981
  3,368
  3,771
  4,190
  4,625
  5,078
  5,549
  6,037
  6,546
  7,074
  7,623
  8,195
  8,790
  9,410
  10,056
  10,729
  11,431
  12,164
  12,929
  13,728
  14,563
  15,436
  16,348
  17,303
  18,302
  19,348
  20,442
Total liabilities, $m
  3,327
  3,667
  4,023
  4,394
  4,781
  5,184
  5,603
  6,038
  6,491
  6,962
  7,450
  7,959
  8,487
  9,036
  9,608
  10,203
  10,823
  11,469
  12,142
  12,844
  13,577
  14,342
  15,141
  15,976
  16,849
  17,761
  18,716
  19,715
  20,761
  21,855
Total equity, $m
  1,481
  1,632
  1,791
  1,956
  2,128
  2,307
  2,494
  2,688
  2,889
  3,099
  3,316
  3,542
  3,777
  4,022
  4,276
  4,541
  4,817
  5,105
  5,404
  5,717
  6,043
  6,384
  6,739
  7,111
  7,499
  7,905
  8,330
  8,775
  9,240
  9,728
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,808
  5,299
  5,814
  6,350
  6,909
  7,491
  8,097
  8,726
  9,380
  10,061
  10,766
  11,501
  12,264
  13,058
  13,884
  14,744
  15,640
  16,574
  17,546
  18,561
  19,620
  20,726
  21,880
  23,087
  24,348
  25,666
  27,046
  28,490
  30,001
  31,583
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.290
  1.380
  1.460
  1.520
  1.580
  1.630
  1.680
  1.720
  1.760
  1.790
  1.820
  1.850
  1.870
  1.900
  1.920
  1.940
  1.950
  1.970
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  539
  721
  911
  1,111
  1,319
  1,537
  1,764
  2,001
  2,248
  2,504
  2,971
  3,250
  3,540
  3,843
  4,159
  4,489
  4,833
  5,192
  5,568
  5,961
  6,372
  6,802
  7,252
  7,723
  8,217
  8,735
  9,278
  9,847
  10,445
  11,071
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  378
  388
  400
  411
  423
  436
  449
  463
  477
  492
  235
  251
  268
  285
  303
  322
  341
  362
  383
  405
  428
  452
  477
  504
  531
  560
  590
  621
  654
  689
Funds from operations, $m
  917
  1,109
  1,311
  1,522
  1,743
  1,973
  2,214
  2,464
  2,725
  2,997
  3,206
  3,501
  3,808
  4,128
  4,462
  4,811
  5,174
  5,554
  5,951
  6,366
  6,800
  7,254
  7,729
  8,227
  8,748
  9,295
  9,868
  10,469
  11,099
  11,760
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  919
  1,112
  1,314
  1,525
  1,746
  1,977
  2,217
  2,468
  2,729
  3,001
  3,210
  3,505
  3,812
  4,133
  4,467
  4,816
  5,179
  5,559
  5,957
  6,372
  6,806
  7,260
  7,736
  8,234
  8,756
  9,303
  9,876
  10,477
  11,108
  11,770
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -95
  -105
  -116
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -177
  -190
  -205
  -219
  -235
  -251
  -268
  -285
  -303
  -322
  -341
  -362
  -383
  -405
  -428
  -452
  -477
  -504
  -531
  -560
  -590
  -621
  -654
New CAPEX, $m
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -286
  -298
  -310
  -323
  -336
  -350
  -365
  -381
  -397
  -415
  -433
  -453
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -542
  -567
  -594
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -270
  -289
  -309
  -328
  -349
  -369
  -390
  -413
  -435
  -460
  -484
  -511
  -537
  -566
  -595
  -626
  -658
  -691
  -727
  -764
  -802
  -843
  -885
  -930
  -977
  -1,026
  -1,078
  -1,132
  -1,188
  -1,248
Free cash flow, $m
  650
  823
  1,005
  1,197
  1,398
  1,608
  1,827
  2,055
  2,293
  2,541
  2,726
  2,995
  3,275
  3,567
  3,872
  4,190
  4,522
  4,868
  5,230
  5,608
  6,004
  6,417
  6,850
  7,304
  7,779
  8,277
  8,798
  9,346
  9,919
  10,522
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  323
  340
  356
  371
  387
  403
  419
  436
  453
  470
  489
  508
  528
  549
  572
  595
  620
  646
  673
  702
  733
  765
  799
  835
  873
  913
  955
  999
  1,046
  1,095
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  323
  340
  356
  371
  387
  403
  419
  436
  453
  470
  489
  508
  528
  549
  572
  595
  620
  646
  673
  702
  733
  765
  799
  835
  873
  913
  955
  999
  1,046
  1,095
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  973
  1,163
  1,361
  1,568
  1,785
  2,010
  2,245
  2,490
  2,746
  3,011
  3,214
  3,503
  3,803
  4,117
  4,444
  4,785
  5,142
  5,514
  5,903
  6,310
  6,736
  7,182
  7,649
  8,139
  8,652
  9,189
  9,753
  10,344
  10,965
  11,616
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -146
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -287
  -300
  -313
  -326
  -341
  -356
  -372
  -388
  -406
  -425
  -445
  -465
  -487
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  827
  1,011
  1,203
  1,403
  1,612
  1,831
  2,059
  2,297
  2,544
  2,802
  2,997
  3,277
  3,568
  3,872
  4,189
  4,520
  4,866
  5,226
  5,604
  5,998
  6,410
  6,842
  7,294
  7,767
  8,263
  8,783
  9,328
  9,900
  10,500
  11,129
Discount rate, %
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  783
  900
  1,002
  1,087
  1,153
  1,201
  1,230
  1,239
  1,229
  1,201
  1,129
  1,073
  1,005
  927
  842
  753
  663
  573
  487
  407
  333
  267
  210
  162
  122
  89
  64
  45
  30
  20
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Zebra Technologies Corporation designs, manufactures and sells a range of automatic identification and data capture (AIDC) products. The Company's AIDC products include mobile computers, barcode scanners, radio frequency identification (RFID) readers, wireless local area network (WLAN) products, specialty printers for barcode labeling and personal identification, real-time location systems (RTLS), related accessories and supplies, such as self-adhesive labels and other consumables, and utilities and application software. The Company operates through two segments: Enterprise, which comprises its mobile computing, data capture, RFID and WLAN products, and services, and Legacy Zebra, which comprises barcode and card printing, location solutions, supplies and services. The Company's products are used in automatic identification (auto ID), data collection and personal identification applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -73.3
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 12.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 334.3%
Total Debt to Equity 334.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital -3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Return On Equity -16.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Operating Margin 2.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Net Profit Margin -3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Effective Tax Rate -6.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZBRA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZBRA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4218 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Zebra Technologies Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Zebra Technologies Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZBRA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for ZBRA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Zebra Technologies Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Zebra Technologies Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZBRA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1879 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZBRA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Zebra Technologies Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Zebra Technologies Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZBRA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZBRA are equal to 38.6%.

Life of production assets of 17.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Zebra Technologies Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZBRA is equal to -0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1335 million for Zebra Technologies Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.879 million for Zebra Technologies Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Zebra Technologies Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.2 billion.

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