Intrinsic value of Zebra Technologies Cl A - ZBRA

Previous Close

$145.96

  Intrinsic Value

$20.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$145.96

 
Intrinsic value

$20.81

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZBRA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  3,875
  4,037
  4,209
  4,392
  4,586
  4,791
  5,007
  5,236
  5,478
  5,733
  6,001
  6,284
  6,583
  6,897
  7,227
  7,575
  7,941
  8,327
  8,732
  9,158
  9,605
  10,076
  10,571
  11,091
  11,638
  12,212
  12,816
  13,450
  14,116
  14,816
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,778
  3,925
  4,081
  4,246
  4,421
  4,606
  4,802
  5,009
  5,227
  5,457
  5,424
  5,679
  5,949
  6,233
  6,532
  6,846
  7,177
  7,525
  7,891
  8,276
  8,681
  9,106
  9,554
  10,024
  10,518
  11,037
  11,582
  12,155
  12,757
  13,390
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,778
  3,925
  4,081
  4,246
  4,421
  4,606
  4,802
  5,009
  5,227
  5,457
  5,424
  5,679
  5,949
  6,233
  6,532
  6,846
  7,177
  7,525
  7,891
  8,276
  8,681
  9,106
  9,554
  10,024
  10,518
  11,037
  11,582
  12,155
  12,757
  13,390
Operating income, $m
  97
  112
  129
  146
  165
  185
  206
  228
  251
  275
  578
  605
  634
  664
  696
  729
  764
  802
  841
  882
  925
  970
  1,018
  1,068
  1,120
  1,176
  1,234
  1,295
  1,359
  1,426
EBITDA, $m
  699
  728
  759
  792
  827
  864
  903
  944
  988
  1,034
  1,082
  1,133
  1,187
  1,244
  1,304
  1,366
  1,432
  1,502
  1,575
  1,652
  1,732
  1,817
  1,907
  2,000
  2,099
  2,203
  2,311
  2,426
  2,546
  2,672
Interest expense (income), $m
  180
  207
  220
  234
  249
  265
  281
  299
  318
  337
  358
  380
  403
  427
  453
  480
  508
  538
  570
  603
  638
  674
  713
  753
  796
  840
  887
  937
  989
  1,043
  1,100
Earnings before tax, $m
  -111
  -108
  -105
  -103
  -100
  -96
  -93
  -90
  -86
  -83
  198
  202
  206
  211
  216
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  257
  264
  272
  280
  288
  297
  306
  316
  326
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
Net income, $m
  -111
  -108
  -105
  -103
  -100
  -96
  -93
  -90
  -86
  -83
  144
  147
  151
  154
  158
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  183
  188
  193
  199
  204
  210
  217
  223
  230
  238

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,448
  4,635
  4,833
  5,043
  5,265
  5,500
  5,749
  6,012
  6,289
  6,582
  6,890
  7,215
  7,557
  7,918
  8,298
  8,697
  9,118
  9,560
  10,025
  10,514
  11,028
  11,569
  12,137
  12,734
  13,361
  14,021
  14,714
  15,442
  16,207
  17,010
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,448
  4,635
  4,833
  5,043
  5,265
  5,500
  5,749
  6,012
  6,289
  6,582
  6,890
  7,215
  7,557
  7,918
  8,298
  8,697
  9,118
  9,560
  10,025
  10,514
  11,028
  11,569
  12,137
  12,734
  13,361
  14,021
  14,714
  15,442
  16,207
  17,010
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
  0.871
Average production assets, $m
  3,259
  3,395
  3,540
  3,694
  3,857
  4,029
  4,211
  4,404
  4,607
  4,821
  5,047
  5,285
  5,536
  5,800
  6,078
  6,371
  6,679
  7,003
  7,343
  7,702
  8,078
  8,474
  8,890
  9,328
  9,787
  10,270
  10,778
  11,311
  11,872
  12,460
Working capital, $m
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  211
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
Total debt, $m
  2,367
  2,517
  2,676
  2,845
  3,024
  3,214
  3,414
  3,625
  3,849
  4,084
  4,332
  4,594
  4,870
  5,160
  5,466
  5,787
  6,126
  6,482
  6,856
  7,250
  7,664
  8,099
  8,556
  9,037
  9,542
  10,073
  10,631
  11,217
  11,832
  12,479
Total liabilities, $m
  3,581
  3,731
  3,890
  4,059
  4,238
  4,428
  4,628
  4,839
  5,063
  5,298
  5,546
  5,808
  6,084
  6,374
  6,680
  7,001
  7,340
  7,696
  8,070
  8,464
  8,878
  9,313
  9,770
  10,251
  10,756
  11,287
  11,845
  12,431
  13,046
  13,693
Total equity, $m
  867
  904
  942
  983
  1,027
  1,073
  1,121
  1,172
  1,226
  1,283
  1,344
  1,407
  1,474
  1,544
  1,618
  1,696
  1,778
  1,864
  1,955
  2,050
  2,150
  2,256
  2,367
  2,483
  2,605
  2,734
  2,869
  3,011
  3,160
  3,317
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,448
  4,635
  4,832
  5,042
  5,265
  5,501
  5,749
  6,011
  6,289
  6,581
  6,890
  7,215
  7,558
  7,918
  8,298
  8,697
  9,118
  9,560
  10,025
  10,514
  11,028
  11,569
  12,137
  12,734
  13,361
  14,021
  14,714
  15,442
  16,206
  17,010
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.730
  2.780
  2.840
  2.890
  2.950
  3.000
  3.050
  3.090
  3.140
  3.180
  3.220
  3.270
  3.300
  3.340
  3.380
  3.410
  3.450
  3.480
  3.510
  3.540
  3.560
  3.590
  3.620
  3.640
  3.660
  3.680
  3.710
  3.730
  3.740
  3.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -111
  -108
  -105
  -103
  -100
  -96
  -93
  -90
  -86
  -83
  144
  147
  151
  154
  158
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  183
  188
  193
  199
  204
  210
  217
  223
  230
  238
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  602
  616
  630
  646
  662
  679
  698
  717
  737
  759
  505
  529
  554
  580
  608
  637
  668
  700
  734
  770
  808
  847
  889
  933
  979
  1,027
  1,078
  1,131
  1,187
  1,246
Funds from operations, $m
  492
  508
  525
  543
  562
  583
  604
  627
  651
  676
  649
  676
  704
  734
  765
  798
  833
  870
  908
  948
  991
  1,035
  1,082
  1,131
  1,183
  1,237
  1,295
  1,355
  1,418
  1,484
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  489
  505
  522
  540
  559
  579
  600
  622
  646
  671
  644
  670
  698
  728
  759
  791
  826
  862
  900
  940
  982
  1,026
  1,072
  1,121
  1,172
  1,226
  1,282
  1,342
  1,404
  1,470
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -313
  -326
  -340
  -354
  -369
  -386
  -403
  -421
  -440
  -461
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -554
  -580
  -608
  -637
  -668
  -700
  -734
  -770
  -808
  -847
  -889
  -933
  -979
  -1,027
  -1,078
  -1,131
  -1,187
New CAPEX, $m
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -341
  -358
  -377
  -396
  -416
  -437
  -460
  -483
  -508
  -533
  -560
  -589
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -443
  -463
  -485
  -508
  -532
  -558
  -585
  -613
  -643
  -675
  -708
  -743
  -780
  -818
  -858
  -901
  -945
  -992
  -1,041
  -1,092
  -1,147
  -1,204
  -1,263
  -1,326
  -1,393
  -1,462
  -1,535
  -1,611
  -1,691
  -1,776
Free cash flow, $m
  46
  42
  37
  32
  26
  21
  15
  9
  2
  -4
  -64
  -72
  -81
  -90
  -99
  -109
  -119
  -130
  -141
  -153
  -165
  -178
  -191
  -206
  -220
  -236
  -252
  -269
  -287
  -306
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  140
  150
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  290
  306
  322
  338
  356
  374
  394
  414
  435
  457
  481
  505
  531
  558
  586
  616
  647
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  144
  144
  144
  143
  143
  142
  142
  141
  140
  140
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  284
  294
  303
  312
  322
  331
  342
  352
  363
  375
  248
  262
  276
  290
  306
  322
  338
  356
  374
  394
  414
  435
  457
  481
  505
  531
  558
  586
  616
  647
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  330
  337
  340
  344
  348
  352
  357
  361
  366
  371
  184
  189
  195
  200
  206
  213
  219
  226
  233
  241
  249
  257
  266
  275
  285
  295
  306
  317
  329
  341
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -144
  -144
  -144
  -143
  -143
  -142
  -142
  -141
  -140
  -140
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
Cash available for distribution, $m
  186
  192
  197
  201
  205
  210
  215
  220
  226
  231
  124
  126
  128
  130
  132
  135
  137
  140
  143
  145
  149
  152
  155
  159
  162
  166
  171
  175
  179
  184
Discount rate, %
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  169
  157
  143
  129
  115
  101
  88
  76
  65
  54
  23
  19
  15
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.2
  96.4
  94.8
  93.3
  91.8
  90.5
  89.2
  88.0
  86.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9
  85.9

Zebra Technologies Corporation designs, manufactures and sells a range of automatic identification and data capture (AIDC) products. The Company's AIDC products include mobile computers, barcode scanners, radio frequency identification (RFID) readers, wireless local area network (WLAN) products, specialty printers for barcode labeling and personal identification, real-time location systems (RTLS), related accessories and supplies, such as self-adhesive labels and other consumables, and utilities and application software. The Company operates through two segments: Enterprise, which comprises its mobile computing, data capture, RFID and WLAN products, and services, and Legacy Zebra, which comprises barcode and card printing, location solutions, supplies and services. The Company's products are used in automatic identification (auto ID), data collection and personal identification applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Zebra Technologies Cl A (ZBRA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -56.3
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 9.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 334.3%
Total Debt to Equity 334.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital -3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Return On Equity -16.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Operating Margin 2.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Net Profit Margin -3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Effective Tax Rate -6.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZBRA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZBRA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3722 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Zebra Technologies Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Zebra Technologies Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZBRA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for ZBRA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Zebra Technologies Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Zebra Technologies Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZBRA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZBRA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.3% for Zebra Technologies Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Zebra Technologies Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZBRA stock is equal to 0.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZBRA are equal to 84.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Zebra Technologies Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZBRA is equal to 2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $834 million for Zebra Technologies Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53 million for Zebra Technologies Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Zebra Technologies Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tablet maker Xplore agrees to $90 million buyout   [Jul-05-18 03:54PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Zebra Technologies Announces Debt Restructuring Actions   [May-31-18 11:34AM  Business Wire]
▶ Zebra Technologies: Cramer's Top Takeaways   [May-09-18 10:26PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Zebra Technologies Sprints On Beat-And-Raise Quarterly Report   [10:10AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Zebra: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tech investor weighs in on future of robotics   [Apr-24-18 10:25AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ New Buys By Best Mutual Funds: From Adobe To Zebra, Who Makes The List?   [Apr-10-18 10:31AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Sell-Side Scans Zebra Technologies' Stellar Q4   [Feb-23-18 04:25PM  Benzinga]
▶ Zebra Technologies Stock Soars On Fourth-Quarter Earnings Report   [Feb-22-18 04:29PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Zebra beats Street 4Q forecasts   [07:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cramer Remix: How you should approach Alphabets earnings   [Feb-01-18 07:06PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ MEDIA ADVISORY: Zebra Technologies Press Conference   [Jan-30-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 6 Industrial Stocks Likely to Beat Estimates in Q4   [Jan-19-18 12:50PM  InvestorPlace]
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