Intrinsic value of Zogenix - ZGNX

Previous Close

$39.20

  Intrinsic Value

$3.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$39.20

 
Intrinsic value

$3.79

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZGNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Variable operating expenses, $m
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
Operating income, $m
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
EBITDA, $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
Earnings before tax, $m
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  145
  149
  152
  157
  161
  167
  172
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  226
  235
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  405
  425
  445
  467
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  145
  149
  152
  157
  161
  167
  172
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  226
  235
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  405
  425
  445
  467
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.069
  0.067
  0.072
  0.070
  0.068
  0.066
  0.070
  0.067
  0.070
  0.068
  0.070
  0.067
  0.069
  0.071
  0.068
  0.069
  0.070
  0.071
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.069
  0.068
  0.068
  0.068
  0.070
  0.069
  0.068
  0.070
  0.069
Average production assets, $m
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  9
  13
  17
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  89
  98
  108
  118
  129
  141
  153
  166
  179
  193
  208
  224
  240
  257
Total liabilities, $m
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  197
  205
  214
  224
  235
  245
  257
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
  374
Total equity, $m
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  145
  149
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  246
  256
  268
  280
  294
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  425
  445
  467
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.090
  0.190
  0.290
  0.400
  0.520
  0.630
  0.750
  0.860
  0.980
  1.090
  1.210
  1.320
  1.430
  1.530
  1.640
  1.740
  1.840
  1.930
  2.020
  2.110
  2.190
  2.270
  2.350
  2.430
  2.500
  2.570
  2.630
  2.700
  2.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Free cash flow, $m
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -109
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  107
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  29
  30
  31
  34
  35
  38
  39
  41
  44
  36
  38
  42
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  87
  91
  97
  104
  110
  116
  124
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -107
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  273
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  259
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  248
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  86.4
  74.2
  63.6
  54.4
  46.3
  39.4
  33.4
  28.2
  23.7
  19.9
  17.5
  15.2
  13.2
  11.4
  9.8
  8.4
  7.2
  6.1
  5.1
  4.3
  3.6
  3.1
  2.6
  2.1
  1.8
  1.5
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7

Zogenix, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing and commercializing central nervous system (CNS) therapies that address specific clinical needs for people living with orphan and other CNS disorders. Its primary area of therapeutic focus is epilepsy and related seizure disorders. Its lead product candidate, ZX008, is a low-dose fenfluramine for the treatment of seizures associated with Dravet syndrome. ZX008 has received orphan drug designation in the United States and European Union (EU), for the treatment of Dravet syndrome. The Company has an additional product candidate, Relday (risperidone once-monthly long-acting injectable) for the treatment of schizophrenia. Relday is a long-acting injectable formulation of risperidone. Risperidone is used to treat the symptoms of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in adults and teenagers 13 years of age and older. It has completed the Phase I program for Relday.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Zogenix (ZGNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.9
Price to Sales 33.5
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -13.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 31
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 15.7%
Total Debt to Equity 18.2%
Interest Coverage -69
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -25.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Total Capital -40.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Return On Equity -46.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
EBITDA Margin -234.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.6%
Operating Margin -251.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -97.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -241.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -80.8%
Net Profit Margin -241.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -38%
Effective Tax Rate 1.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZGNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZGNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9.821 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Zogenix. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Zogenix. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZGNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ZGNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Zogenix, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Zogenix.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZGNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 350%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZGNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 23.9% for Zogenix.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Zogenix. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZGNX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZGNX are equal to 553.4%.

Life of production assets of 258.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Zogenix operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZGNX is equal to -97.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $301.521 million for Zogenix - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.827 million for Zogenix is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Zogenix at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Zogenix: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-08-18 05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Zogenix to Present at Stifel 2018 Healthcare Conference   [Nov-07-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Zogenix Inc (NASDAQ:ZGNX): Is Breakeven Near?   [Oct-19-18 03:43PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Zogenix Sees Hammer Chart Pattern: Time to Buy?   [Oct-18-18 08:22AM  Zacks]
▶ Is Pot Stock GW Pharmaceuticals Undervalued?   [Sep-21-18 07:30AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Six Biotechnology Names on My Watch List   [Sep-10-18 02:17PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Zogenix Prices Public Offering of Common Stock   [Aug-07-18 06:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Zogenix: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-06-18 06:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Zogenix, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Is Marijuana the Best Medicine for Epilepsy?   [Jul-19-18 04:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Biotech Stocks That Soared This Week: Are They Buys?   [Jul-14-18 02:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Zogenix Inc. Shares Jumped 10% on Friday   [Jul-13-18 05:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Zogenix Inc. Is Soaring Today   [11:51AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Biotech Stocks With Major Catalysts Incoming   [Jul-03-18 09:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Zogenix: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 04:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ A Major Marijuana Milestone Is Less Than 2 Months Away   [May-04-18 08:21AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Zogenix to Participate in LEERINK Partners CNS Day   [Apr-11-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Zogenix reports 4Q loss   [Mar-07-18 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Zogenix, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Stocks Close Mildly Higher; Bank, Biotech, Booze Company Break Out   [Dec-28-17 04:08PM  Investor's Business Daily]

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