Intrinsic value of Zumiez - ZUMZ

Previous Close

$21.05

  Intrinsic Value

$20.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-5%

Previous close

$21.05

 
Intrinsic value

$20.09

 
Up/down potential

-5%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZUMZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.26
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  1,056
  1,194
  1,339
  1,493
  1,655
  1,825
  2,003
  2,188
  2,381
  2,582
  2,792
  3,009
  3,235
  3,470
  3,714
  3,968
  4,232
  4,506
  4,792
  5,089
  5,399
  5,721
  6,057
  6,408
  6,774
  7,156
  7,555
  7,972
  8,407
  8,863
Variable operating expenses, $m
  955
  1,078
  1,209
  1,347
  1,492
  1,644
  1,803
  1,969
  2,142
  2,323
  2,502
  2,697
  2,900
  3,111
  3,330
  3,557
  3,794
  4,040
  4,295
  4,562
  4,839
  5,128
  5,430
  5,744
  6,072
  6,415
  6,772
  7,146
  7,536
  7,945
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
Total operating expenses, $m
  997
  1,121
  1,253
  1,392
  1,538
  1,691
  1,851
  2,018
  2,192
  2,374
  2,554
  2,750
  2,954
  3,167
  3,387
  3,615
  3,853
  4,101
  4,357
  4,625
  4,904
  5,194
  5,498
  5,813
  6,143
  6,487
  6,846
  7,221
  7,613
  8,024
Operating income, $m
  60
  73
  87
  102
  118
  134
  152
  170
  189
  209
  237
  258
  281
  304
  328
  353
  379
  406
  434
  464
  494
  526
  560
  595
  631
  669
  709
  750
  794
  839
EBITDA, $m
  93
  109
  127
  146
  165
  186
  208
  230
  254
  278
  304
  331
  358
  387
  417
  448
  481
  514
  549
  586
  624
  664
  705
  748
  794
  841
  890
  942
  996
  1,052
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
Earnings before tax, $m
  60
  72
  85
  99
  113
  128
  144
  161
  178
  196
  223
  243
  263
  285
  307
  330
  354
  379
  404
  432
  460
  489
  520
  552
  585
  620
  657
  695
  735
  777
Tax expense, $m
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  60
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  188
  198
  210
Net income, $m
  43
  52
  62
  72
  83
  94
  105
  117
  130
  143
  163
  177
  192
  208
  224
  241
  258
  276
  295
  315
  336
  357
  379
  403
  427
  453
  479
  507
  537
  567

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  569
  643
  722
  805
  892
  983
  1,079
  1,179
  1,283
  1,391
  1,504
  1,621
  1,743
  1,870
  2,001
  2,138
  2,280
  2,428
  2,582
  2,742
  2,909
  3,082
  3,264
  3,453
  3,650
  3,855
  4,070
  4,295
  4,530
  4,775
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  569
  643
  722
  805
  892
  983
  1,079
  1,179
  1,283
  1,391
  1,504
  1,621
  1,743
  1,870
  2,001
  2,138
  2,280
  2,428
  2,582
  2,742
  2,909
  3,082
  3,264
  3,453
  3,650
  3,855
  4,070
  4,295
  4,530
  4,775
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.856
  1.857
  1.855
  1.855
  1.855
  1.857
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
  1.856
Average production assets, $m
  190
  215
  241
  269
  298
  328
  360
  394
  429
  465
  502
  542
  582
  625
  669
  714
  762
  811
  863
  916
  972
  1,030
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,288
  1,360
  1,435
  1,513
  1,595
Working capital, $m
  94
  106
  119
  133
  147
  162
  178
  195
  212
  230
  248
  268
  288
  309
  331
  353
  377
  401
  426
  453
  480
  509
  539
  570
  603
  637
  672
  709
  748
  789
Total debt, $m
  20
  41
  64
  87
  112
  139
  166
  195
  225
  256
  288
  322
  357
  393
  431
  470
  511
  553
  597
  643
  691
  741
  793
  847
  904
  963
  1,025
  1,089
  1,156
  1,227
Total liabilities, $m
  163
  185
  207
  231
  256
  282
  310
  338
  368
  399
  432
  465
  500
  537
  574
  614
  654
  697
  741
  787
  835
  885
  937
  991
  1,047
  1,107
  1,168
  1,233
  1,300
  1,370
Total equity, $m
  406
  459
  515
  574
  636
  701
  769
  841
  915
  992
  1,072
  1,156
  1,243
  1,333
  1,427
  1,524
  1,626
  1,731
  1,841
  1,955
  2,074
  2,198
  2,327
  2,462
  2,602
  2,749
  2,902
  3,062
  3,230
  3,405
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  569
  644
  722
  805
  892
  983
  1,079
  1,179
  1,283
  1,391
  1,504
  1,621
  1,743
  1,870
  2,001
  2,138
  2,280
  2,428
  2,582
  2,742
  2,909
  3,083
  3,264
  3,453
  3,649
  3,856
  4,070
  4,295
  4,530
  4,775
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.050
  0.090
  0.120
  0.150
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  52
  62
  72
  83
  94
  105
  117
  130
  143
  163
  177
  192
  208
  224
  241
  258
  276
  295
  315
  336
  357
  379
  403
  427
  453
  479
  507
  537
  567
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  122
  130
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  202
  213
Funds from operations, $m
  77
  89
  102
  116
  130
  145
  161
  178
  195
  213
  230
  250
  270
  291
  313
  336
  360
  384
  410
  437
  465
  494
  525
  557
  590
  624
  661
  699
  738
  780
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Cash from operations, $m
  65
  77
  89
  102
  116
  130
  146
  161
  178
  195
  211
  230
  250
  270
  291
  313
  336
  360
  385
  411
  438
  466
  495
  525
  557
  591
  625
  662
  700
  739
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -202
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -88
  -93
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -284
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  27
  34
  42
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  102
  112
  124
  137
  150
  164
  178
  194
  209
  225
  242
  260
  278
  297
  317
  338
  359
  382
  405
  430
  455
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  26
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  46
  48
  57
  66
  76
  86
  97
  109
  121
  133
  144
  158
  172
  187
  202
  218
  234
  252
  269
  288
  308
  328
  349
  371
  394
  418
  443
  470
  497
  526
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -4
  -4
  1
  7
  14
  21
  29
  37
  46
  56
  64
  74
  85
  96
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  174
  189
  204
  220
  236
  254
  272
  290
  310
  330
  351
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -4
  -4
  1
  6
  11
  15
  20
  23
  27
  29
  30
  32
  32
  32
  32
  31
  29
  27
  25
  22
  20
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8

Zumiez Inc., including its subsidiaries, is a specialty retailer of apparel, footwear, accessories and hardgoods for young men and women through the fashion, music, art and culture of action sports, streetwear and other lifestyles. The Company operates under the names Zumiez, Blue Tomato and Fast Times. Additionally, it operates e-commerce Websites at www.zumiez.com, www.blue-tomato.com and www.fasttimes.com.au. It offers various categories of shoes, such as skate shoes, casual shoes, high tops, sandals, slip ons, runners, boots and shoe accessories, such as socks. It also offers flannels, baseball tees, hoodies, baseball hats, windbreakers, shirts, jackets, jerseys, sweaters and tanks, among others. For women, it offers t-shirts, tank tops, hoodies and sweatshirts, cardigans, jackets, skirts, jeans, joggers, leggings and dresses, among others. It provides various accessories, including watches, sunglasses, bracelets, earrings, rings, beanies, hats, belts, wallets and phone accessories

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Zumiez (ZUMZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.2
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -42.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
EBITDA Margin 8.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Operating Margin 4.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate 35%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZUMZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZUMZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $927.401 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Zumiez. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Zumiez. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZUMZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ZUMZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Zumiez, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Zumiez.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZUMZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $41 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZUMZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Zumiez.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Zumiez. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZUMZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZUMZ are equal to 18%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Zumiez operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZUMZ is equal to 8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $355.915 million for Zumiez - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.47 million for Zumiez is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Zumiez at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports October 2018 Sales Results   [Nov-07-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports September 2018 Sales Results   [Oct-10-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Zumiez Stock Surges Late Thursday on Q2 Earnings Beat   [Sep-06-18 07:03PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Zumiez: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Zumiez Inc (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) Attractive At This PE Ratio?   [Aug-29-18 11:09AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports July 2018 Sales Results   [Aug-08-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Look Like Great Short Candidates   [Jul-22-18 02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports June 2018 Sales Results   [Jul-11-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Zumiez Adds To Retail Stock Boom While At Home Is A Bust   [04:29PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Zumiez: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports April 2018 Sales Results   [May-09-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Company News For Apr 12, 2018   [09:55AM  Zacks]
▶ After-hours buzz: BBBY, ZUMZ, AWK & more   [Apr-11-18 05:36PM  CNBC]
▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports March 2018 Sales Results   [04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cramer Remix: Hold the obitsthe mall is alive and well   [Mar-27-18 07:21PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Zumiez Ready for an Upside Breakout   [01:48PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Zumiez (ZUMZ) in Focus: Stock Moves 5.9% Higher   [Mar-20-18 08:41AM  Zacks]
▶ Zumiez misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-15-18 04:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports January 2018 Sales Results   [Feb-07-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]

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