Intrinsic value of Advanced Energy Industries - AEIS

Previous Close

$90.22

  Intrinsic Value

$298.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+231%

Previous close

$90.22

 
Intrinsic value

$298.79

 
Up/down potential

+231%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEIS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.63
  39.50
  36.05
  32.95
  30.15
  27.64
  25.37
  23.33
  21.50
  19.85
  18.37
  17.03
  15.83
  14.74
  13.77
  12.89
  12.10
  11.39
  10.75
  10.18
  9.66
  9.19
  8.77
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.62
Revenue, $m
  484
  675
  919
  1,221
  1,589
  2,029
  2,543
  3,137
  3,811
  4,568
  5,407
  6,328
  7,329
  8,410
  9,568
  10,801
  12,108
  13,488
  14,938
  16,459
  18,049
  19,708
  21,438
  23,238
  25,110
  27,057
  29,080
  31,182
  33,366
  35,637
  37,998
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  478
  649
  862
  1,120
  1,429
  1,790
  2,207
  2,681
  3,212
  3,802
  4,444
  5,147
  5,906
  6,719
  7,586
  8,504
  9,473
  10,491
  11,559
  12,676
  13,841
  15,056
  16,320
  17,635
  19,003
  20,423
  21,900
  23,434
  25,029
  26,687
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
Total operating expenses, $m
  357
  491
  663
  876
  1,134
  1,444
  1,805
  2,222
  2,697
  3,228
  3,819
  4,461
  5,164
  5,924
  6,737
  7,605
  8,523
  9,493
  10,511
  11,580
  12,697
  13,863
  15,078
  16,343
  17,659
  19,027
  20,448
  21,925
  23,460
  25,056
  26,714
Operating income, $m
  127
  183
  256
  345
  455
  585
  738
  914
  1,115
  1,339
  1,589
  1,867
  2,164
  2,485
  2,830
  3,196
  3,585
  3,995
  4,427
  4,879
  5,351
  5,845
  6,359
  6,894
  7,451
  8,030
  8,632
  9,257
  9,906
  10,582
  11,284
EBITDA, $m
  135
  193
  267
  360
  472
  606
  763
  944
  1,150
  1,382
  1,638
  1,919
  2,225
  2,555
  2,909
  3,286
  3,686
  4,107
  4,551
  5,015
  5,502
  6,009
  6,537
  7,088
  7,660
  8,255
  8,874
  9,516
  10,184
  10,878
  11,600
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  6
  10
  14
  20
  27
  35
  43
  53
  64
  76
  89
  103
  118
  134
  151
  169
  188
  208
  229
  250
  273
  296
  321
  346
  373
  400
  428
  458
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  183
  253
  340
  445
  571
  718
  887
  1,080
  1,296
  1,535
  1,802
  2,088
  2,396
  2,726
  3,078
  3,451
  3,844
  4,257
  4,690
  5,143
  5,616
  6,109
  6,621
  7,155
  7,709
  8,285
  8,884
  9,507
  10,153
  10,826
Tax expense, $m
  11
  50
  68
  92
  120
  154
  194
  240
  292
  350
  415
  487
  564
  647
  736
  831
  932
  1,038
  1,149
  1,266
  1,389
  1,516
  1,649
  1,788
  1,932
  2,081
  2,237
  2,399
  2,567
  2,741
  2,923
Net income, $m
  127
  134
  185
  248
  325
  417
  524
  648
  788
  946
  1,121
  1,316
  1,524
  1,749
  1,990
  2,247
  2,519
  2,806
  3,108
  3,424
  3,755
  4,100
  4,459
  4,834
  5,223
  5,628
  6,048
  6,486
  6,940
  7,412
  7,903

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  287
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  572
  398
  541
  719
  936
  1,195
  1,498
  1,847
  2,245
  2,690
  3,184
  3,726
  4,316
  4,953
  5,635
  6,361
  7,131
  7,943
  8,798
  9,693
  10,629
  11,607
  12,625
  13,685
  14,788
  15,934
  17,126
  18,364
  19,650
  20,988
  22,378
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  285
  398
  541
  719
  936
  1,195
  1,498
  1,847
  2,245
  2,690
  3,184
  3,726
  4,316
  4,953
  5,635
  6,361
  7,131
  7,943
  8,798
  9,693
  10,629
  11,607
  12,625
  13,685
  14,788
  15,934
  17,126
  18,364
  19,650
  20,988
  22,378
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.698
  1.696
  1.699
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
  1.698
Average production assets, $m
  43
  60
  82
  109
  141
  181
  226
  279
  339
  407
  481
  563
  652
  748
  852
  961
  1,078
  1,200
  1,330
  1,465
  1,606
  1,754
  1,908
  2,068
  2,235
  2,408
  2,588
  2,775
  2,970
  3,172
  3,382
Working capital, $m
  343
  78
  107
  142
  184
  235
  295
  364
  442
  530
  627
  734
  850
  976
  1,110
  1,253
  1,405
  1,565
  1,733
  1,909
  2,094
  2,286
  2,487
  2,696
  2,913
  3,139
  3,373
  3,617
  3,871
  4,134
  4,408
Total debt, $m
  0
  71
  162
  275
  412
  575
  767
  988
  1,239
  1,520
  1,832
  2,175
  2,548
  2,950
  3,381
  3,840
  4,327
  4,840
  5,380
  5,946
  6,538
  7,155
  7,799
  8,469
  9,166
  9,891
  10,644
  11,426
  12,239
  13,084
  13,963
Total liabilities, $m
  179
  251
  342
  455
  592
  755
  947
  1,168
  1,419
  1,700
  2,012
  2,355
  2,728
  3,130
  3,561
  4,020
  4,507
  5,020
  5,560
  6,126
  6,718
  7,335
  7,979
  8,649
  9,346
  10,071
  10,824
  11,606
  12,419
  13,264
  14,143
Total equity, $m
  392
  146
  199
  265
  344
  440
  551
  680
  826
  990
  1,172
  1,371
  1,588
  1,823
  2,074
  2,341
  2,624
  2,923
  3,237
  3,567
  3,912
  4,271
  4,646
  5,036
  5,442
  5,864
  6,302
  6,758
  7,231
  7,723
  8,235
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  571
  397
  541
  720
  936
  1,195
  1,498
  1,848
  2,245
  2,690
  3,184
  3,726
  4,316
  4,953
  5,635
  6,361
  7,131
  7,943
  8,797
  9,693
  10,630
  11,606
  12,625
  13,685
  14,788
  15,935
  17,126
  18,364
  19,650
  20,987
  22,378
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.490
  0.810
  1.040
  1.190
  1.310
  1.390
  1.450
  1.500
  1.540
  1.560
  1.590
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  127
  134
  185
  248
  325
  417
  524
  648
  788
  946
  1,121
  1,316
  1,524
  1,749
  1,990
  2,247
  2,519
  2,806
  3,108
  3,424
  3,755
  4,100
  4,459
  4,834
  5,223
  5,628
  6,048
  6,486
  6,940
  7,412
  7,903
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  49
  53
  61
  70
  80
  90
  101
  112
  124
  137
  150
  164
  178
  193
  209
  225
  242
  259
  278
  296
  316
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  144
  197
  262
  342
  438
  549
  678
  824
  988
  1,170
  1,368
  1,585
  1,819
  2,070
  2,337
  2,620
  2,918
  3,232
  3,561
  3,905
  4,264
  4,638
  5,027
  5,432
  5,853
  6,290
  6,745
  7,217
  7,708
  8,219
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  22
  28
  35
  43
  51
  60
  69
  78
  88
  97
  107
  116
  125
  134
  143
  152
  160
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  253
  263
  274
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  122
  168
  227
  300
  387
  490
  609
  746
  900
  1,073
  1,262
  1,469
  1,694
  1,936
  2,194
  2,468
  2,758
  3,064
  3,384
  3,720
  4,071
  4,437
  4,818
  5,215
  5,627
  6,056
  6,501
  6,964
  7,445
  7,945
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -101
  -112
  -124
  -137
  -150
  -164
  -178
  -193
  -209
  -225
  -242
  -259
  -278
  -296
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -21
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -52
  -63
  -74
  -86
  -99
  -113
  -127
  -142
  -157
  -173
  -190
  -206
  -224
  -241
  -259
  -279
  -298
  -318
  -338
  -360
  -382
  -405
  -429
  -453
  -480
  -506
Free cash flow, $m
  119
  100
  141
  193
  257
  334
  427
  535
  660
  801
  960
  1,135
  1,327
  1,537
  1,763
  2,004
  2,262
  2,535
  2,822
  3,125
  3,442
  3,773
  4,119
  4,480
  4,855
  5,245
  5,651
  6,072
  6,510
  6,965
  7,439
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  71
  91
  113
  137
  163
  192
  221
  251
  282
  312
  343
  373
  402
  431
  459
  487
  513
  540
  566
  592
  618
  644
  670
  697
  725
  753
  782
  813
  845
  879
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  71
  91
  113
  137
  163
  192
  221
  251
  282
  312
  343
  373
  402
  431
  459
  487
  513
  540
  566
  592
  618
  644
  670
  697
  725
  753
  782
  813
  845
  879
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  120
  172
  232
  305
  394
  498
  618
  756
  911
  1,083
  1,272
  1,477
  1,700
  1,939
  2,194
  2,463
  2,748
  3,048
  3,362
  3,691
  4,034
  4,391
  4,763
  5,150
  5,552
  5,969
  6,403
  6,855
  7,323
  7,811
  8,317
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -128
  -41
  -53
  -66
  -80
  -95
  -112
  -129
  -146
  -164
  -182
  -200
  -217
  -234
  -251
  -267
  -283
  -299
  -314
  -330
  -345
  -360
  -375
  -390
  -406
  -422
  -438
  -456
  -473
  -492
  -512
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  287
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  417
  179
  240
  314
  403
  507
  627
  765
  919
  1,091
  1,278
  1,483
  1,705
  1,943
  2,196
  2,465
  2,749
  3,048
  3,361
  3,689
  4,031
  4,388
  4,759
  5,146
  5,548
  5,965
  6,399
  6,850
  7,318
  7,806
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  400
  164
  209
  258
  312
  368
  424
  478
  528
  572
  607
  633
  648
  652
  645
  626
  598
  561
  518
  469
  417
  364
  312
  262
  216
  174
  137
  106
  80
  59
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. is a provider of engineered, precision power conversion, measurement and control solutions. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, selling and supporting its power conversion products and solutions that transform power into various forms in various applications ranging from manufacturing and industrial processes to instrumentation, and test and measurement. It also provides repair and maintenance services for all of its products. Its process power systems include direct current (DC), pulsed DC, low frequency, high voltage, and radio frequency (RF) power supplies, matching networks, remote plasma sources for reactive gas applications and RF instrumentation. These power conversion systems refine, modify and control the raw electrical power from a utility and convert it into power that may be customized and is predictable and repeatable. Its power control modules and thermal instrumentation products are used in the semiconductor industry.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.2
Price to Sales 7.4
Price to Book 9.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 32
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 24.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 38.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 38.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.9%
EBITDA Margin 28.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Operating Margin 26.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Net Profit Margin 26.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 8.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

AEIS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEIS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $484 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Advanced Energy Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Advanced Energy Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEIS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 39.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEIS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Advanced Energy Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Advanced Energy Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEIS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $13 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEIS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Advanced Energy Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Advanced Energy Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEIS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEIS are equal to 8.9%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Advanced Energy Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEIS is equal to 11.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $392 million for Advanced Energy Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.902 million for Advanced Energy Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Advanced Energy Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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Financial statements of AEIS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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