Intrinsic value of Alon USA Partners - ALDW

Previous Close

$18.75

  Intrinsic Value

$29.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+58%

Previous close

$18.75

 
Intrinsic value

$29.56

 
Up/down potential

+58%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALDW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -16.18
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  1,808
  1,936
  2,070
  2,208
  2,353
  2,503
  2,659
  2,822
  2,991
  3,168
  3,352
  3,544
  3,744
  3,954
  4,173
  4,401
  4,640
  4,890
  5,152
  5,426
  5,713
  6,013
  6,327
  6,657
  7,002
  7,364
  7,743
  8,141
  8,558
  8,995
  9,454
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  993
  1,062
  1,133
  1,207
  1,284
  1,364
  1,447
  1,534
  1,625
  1,719
  1,818
  1,921
  2,028
  2,141
  2,258
  2,381
  2,509
  2,643
  2,784
  2,931
  3,085
  3,246
  3,415
  3,592
  3,778
  3,972
  4,176
  4,390
  4,614
  4,850
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  891
  913
  936
  959
  983
  1,008
  1,033
  1,059
  1,085
  1,112
  1,140
  1,169
  1,198
  1,228
  1,259
  1,290
  1,322
  1,355
  1,389
  1,424
  1,460
  1,496
  1,533
  1,572
  1,611
  1,651
  1,693
  1,735
  1,778
  1,823
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,775
  1,884
  1,975
  2,069
  2,166
  2,267
  2,372
  2,480
  2,593
  2,710
  2,831
  2,958
  3,090
  3,226
  3,369
  3,517
  3,671
  3,831
  3,998
  4,173
  4,355
  4,545
  4,742
  4,948
  5,164
  5,389
  5,623
  5,869
  6,125
  6,392
  6,673
Operating income, $m
  33
  52
  95
  140
  187
  236
  287
  341
  398
  457
  520
  586
  655
  728
  804
  885
  970
  1,059
  1,154
  1,253
  1,358
  1,469
  1,585
  1,708
  1,838
  1,975
  2,120
  2,272
  2,433
  2,602
  2,781
EBITDA, $m
  91
  114
  161
  210
  262
  316
  372
  431
  494
  559
  627
  699
  775
  854
  938
  1,026
  1,118
  1,216
  1,319
  1,427
  1,541
  1,661
  1,788
  1,922
  2,062
  2,211
  2,368
  2,533
  2,707
  2,890
  3,084
Interest expense (income), $m
  35
  31
  32
  38
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  227
  241
  256
  271
  288
  305
  323
Earnings before tax, $m
  -4
  21
  63
  102
  143
  186
  231
  279
  329
  382
  437
  495
  556
  621
  689
  760
  836
  916
  1,000
  1,088
  1,182
  1,281
  1,385
  1,495
  1,611
  1,734
  1,864
  2,000
  2,145
  2,297
  2,458
Tax expense, $m
  0
  6
  17
  27
  39
  50
  62
  75
  89
  103
  118
  134
  150
  168
  186
  205
  226
  247
  270
  294
  319
  346
  374
  404
  435
  468
  503
  540
  579
  620
  664
Net income, $m
  -4
  16
  46
  74
  104
  136
  169
  204
  240
  279
  319
  361
  406
  453
  503
  555
  610
  668
  730
  795
  863
  935
  1,011
  1,092
  1,176
  1,266
  1,360
  1,460
  1,566
  1,677
  1,794

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  696
  666
  712
  760
  809
  861
  915
  971
  1,029
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,288
  1,360
  1,435
  1,514
  1,596
  1,682
  1,772
  1,867
  1,965
  2,068
  2,177
  2,290
  2,409
  2,533
  2,664
  2,800
  2,944
  3,094
  3,252
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  622
  666
  712
  760
  809
  861
  915
  971
  1,029
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,288
  1,360
  1,435
  1,514
  1,596
  1,682
  1,772
  1,867
  1,965
  2,068
  2,177
  2,290
  2,409
  2,533
  2,664
  2,800
  2,944
  3,094
  3,252
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.907
  2.907
  2.907
  2.905
  2.909
  2.907
  2.906
  2.906
  2.907
  2.906
  2.907
  2.907
  2.907
  2.907
  2.908
  2.907
  2.907
  2.907
  2.907
  2.906
  2.907
  2.908
  2.906
  2.907
  2.907
  2.907
  2.907
  2.908
  2.907
  2.907
  2.907
Average production assets, $m
  428
  459
  491
  523
  558
  593
  630
  669
  709
  751
  794
  840
  887
  937
  989
  1,043
  1,100
  1,159
  1,221
  1,286
  1,354
  1,425
  1,500
  1,578
  1,659
  1,745
  1,835
  1,929
  2,028
  2,132
  2,241
Working capital, $m
  -73
  -155
  -166
  -177
  -188
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -334
  -352
  -371
  -391
  -412
  -434
  -457
  -481
  -506
  -533
  -560
  -589
  -619
  -651
  -685
  -720
  -756
Total debt, $m
  236
  243
  285
  328
  372
  419
  467
  518
  570
  625
  682
  741
  803
  868
  936
  1,007
  1,081
  1,158
  1,239
  1,324
  1,413
  1,506
  1,603
  1,705
  1,812
  1,924
  2,041
  2,164
  2,293
  2,429
  2,571
Total liabilities, $m
  592
  599
  641
  684
  728
  775
  823
  874
  926
  981
  1,038
  1,097
  1,159
  1,224
  1,292
  1,363
  1,437
  1,514
  1,595
  1,680
  1,769
  1,862
  1,959
  2,061
  2,168
  2,280
  2,397
  2,520
  2,649
  2,785
  2,927
Total equity, $m
  104
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  151
  160
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  696
  666
  712
  760
  809
  861
  914
  971
  1,029
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,288
  1,360
  1,436
  1,514
  1,597
  1,682
  1,772
  1,867
  1,966
  2,069
  2,177
  2,290
  2,409
  2,533
  2,663
  2,800
  2,943
  3,094
  3,252
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.269
  3.660
  4.000
  4.310
  4.600
  4.870
  5.110
  5.330
  5.540
  5.730
  5.910
  6.080
  6.240
  6.380
  6.520
  6.650
  6.770
  6.880
  6.990
  7.090
  7.190
  7.280
  7.360
  7.450
  7.520
  7.590
  7.660
  7.730
  7.790
  7.850
  7.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.048
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  16
  46
  74
  104
  136
  169
  204
  240
  279
  319
  361
  406
  453
  503
  555
  610
  668
  730
  795
  863
  935
  1,011
  1,092
  1,176
  1,266
  1,360
  1,460
  1,566
  1,677
  1,794
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  303
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  78
  112
  145
  180
  216
  254
  294
  336
  380
  426
  475
  526
  580
  636
  696
  759
  825
  895
  968
  1,046
  1,128
  1,214
  1,305
  1,401
  1,502
  1,608
  1,721
  1,840
  1,965
  2,097
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
Cash from operations, $m
  78
  88
  123
  156
  191
  228
  267
  307
  350
  394
  441
  490
  542
  597
  654
  714
  778
  845
  916
  990
  1,069
  1,152
  1,239
  1,331
  1,428
  1,531
  1,639
  1,753
  1,873
  2,000
  2,134
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -288
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -268
  -281
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -342
  -360
  -378
  -397
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  -1
  29
  57
  86
  117
  149
  183
  219
  256
  296
  337
  381
  427
  475
  527
  580
  637
  697
  760
  827
  897
  972
  1,050
  1,133
  1,221
  1,313
  1,411
  1,514
  1,622
  1,737
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -58
  10
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -81
  28
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -36
  28
  70
  100
  131
  164
  198
  234
  271
  311
  353
  397
  443
  492
  543
  597
  654
  715
  778
  845
  916
  990
  1,069
  1,152
  1,240
  1,333
  1,431
  1,534
  1,643
  1,758
  1,879
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  27
  -34
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  65
  66
  95
  126
  158
  192
  228
  266
  305
  347
  390
  436
  485
  536
  589
  646
  706
  769
  836
  906
  980
  1,058
  1,141
  1,228
  1,320
  1,417
  1,520
  1,628
  1,743
  1,863
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  61
  57
  77
  93
  106
  117
  124
  128
  129
  127
  123
  116
  108
  99
  89
  78
  67
  57
  47
  38
  30
  23
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8
  94.8

Alon USA Partners, LP (Alon) is engaged principally in the business of operating a crude oil refinery in Big Spring, Texas. The Company had a crude oil throughput capacity of 73,000 barrels per day, which the Company referred to as its Big Spring refinery, as of December 31, 2016. The Company refines crude oil into finished products, which the Company markets primarily in Central and West Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona through its integrated wholesale distribution network to retail convenience stores and other third-party distributors. Its Big Spring refinery is located on 1,306 acres in the Permian Basin in West Texas. Major processes at its Big Spring refinery include fluid catalytic cracking, naphtha reforming, vacuum distillation, hydrotreating, aromatic extraction and alkylation. The Company is managed and operated by Alon USA Partners GP, LLC (General Partner), an indirect subsidiary of Alon USA Energy, Inc. (Alon Energy), which is its parent company.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alon USA Partners (ALDW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -293.1
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 11.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 25
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 224%
Total Debt to Equity 226.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Return On Total Capital -1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Return On Equity -3.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.5%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
EBITDA Margin 4.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Operating Margin 1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Net Profit Margin -0.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Payout Ratio -575%

ALDW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALDW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1808 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alon USA Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alon USA Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALDW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for ALDW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alon USA Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alon USA Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALDW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 51.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $869 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALDW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 13.3% for Alon USA Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alon USA Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALDW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALDW are equal to 23.7%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alon USA Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALDW is equal to -8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $104 million for Alon USA Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.61 million for Alon USA Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alon USA Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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Financial statements of ALDW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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