Intrinsic value of EV Energy Partners - EVEP

Previous Close

$0.83

  Intrinsic Value

$3.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+354%

Previous close

$0.83

 
Intrinsic value

$3.77

 
Up/down potential

+354%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EVEP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.93
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  354
  371
  388
  407
  427
  448
  469
  492
  516
  542
  568
  596
  626
  656
  689
  723
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  477
  496
  516
  538
  561
  585
  611
  639
  668
  698
  730
  764
  800
  838
  878
  920
  964
  1,010
  1,059
  1,110
  1,164
  1,221
  1,281
  1,344
  1,410
  1,479
  1,552
  1,629
  1,709
  1,794
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  354
  477
  496
  516
  538
  561
  585
  611
  639
  668
  698
  730
  764
  800
  838
  878
  920
  964
  1,010
  1,059
  1,110
  1,164
  1,221
  1,281
  1,344
  1,410
  1,479
  1,552
  1,629
  1,709
  1,794
Operating income, $m
  -169
  -285
  -296
  -308
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -365
  -381
  -399
  -417
  -436
  -456
  -478
  -500
  -524
  -549
  -575
  -603
  -632
  -663
  -695
  -729
  -765
  -802
  -842
  -883
  -927
  -972
  -1,020
  -1,071
EBITDA, $m
  -50
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -499
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -605
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  38
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
Earnings before tax, $m
  -245
  -322
  -336
  -350
  -365
  -381
  -399
  -417
  -436
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -577
  -605
  -634
  -665
  -698
  -733
  -769
  -807
  -847
  -889
  -933
  -980
  -1,029
  -1,080
  -1,134
  -1,191
  -1,251
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -243
  -322
  -336
  -350
  -365
  -381
  -399
  -417
  -436
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -577
  -605
  -634
  -665
  -698
  -733
  -769
  -807
  -847
  -889
  -933
  -980
  -1,029
  -1,080
  -1,134
  -1,191
  -1,251

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,607
  1,657
  1,723
  1,794
  1,870
  1,950
  2,034
  2,124
  2,219
  2,320
  2,426
  2,538
  2,656
  2,781
  2,912
  3,050
  3,196
  3,349
  3,510
  3,680
  3,858
  4,046
  4,244
  4,451
  4,669
  4,899
  5,140
  5,393
  5,659
  5,939
  6,233
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,601
  1,657
  1,723
  1,794
  1,870
  1,950
  2,034
  2,124
  2,219
  2,320
  2,426
  2,538
  2,656
  2,781
  2,912
  3,050
  3,196
  3,349
  3,510
  3,680
  3,858
  4,046
  4,244
  4,451
  4,669
  4,899
  5,140
  5,393
  5,659
  5,939
  6,233
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
Average production assets, $m
  1,645
  1,709
  1,778
  1,851
  1,928
  2,011
  2,098
  2,191
  2,289
  2,393
  2,502
  2,618
  2,740
  2,868
  3,003
  3,146
  3,296
  3,454
  3,621
  3,796
  3,980
  4,174
  4,377
  4,591
  4,816
  5,053
  5,302
  5,563
  5,838
  6,126
  6,429
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Total debt, $m
  607
  636
  671
  709
  749
  791
  836
  884
  934
  987
  1,044
  1,103
  1,166
  1,232
  1,301
  1,375
  1,452
  1,533
  1,618
  1,708
  1,803
  1,902
  2,007
  2,117
  2,233
  2,354
  2,482
  2,616
  2,757
  2,906
  3,061
Total liabilities, $m
  848
  878
  913
  951
  991
  1,033
  1,078
  1,126
  1,176
  1,229
  1,286
  1,345
  1,408
  1,474
  1,543
  1,617
  1,694
  1,775
  1,860
  1,950
  2,045
  2,144
  2,249
  2,359
  2,475
  2,596
  2,724
  2,858
  2,999
  3,148
  3,303
Total equity, $m
  758
  779
  810
  843
  879
  916
  956
  998
  1,043
  1,090
  1,140
  1,193
  1,248
  1,307
  1,369
  1,434
  1,502
  1,574
  1,650
  1,730
  1,813
  1,902
  1,995
  2,092
  2,195
  2,302
  2,416
  2,535
  2,660
  2,791
  2,930
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,606
  1,657
  1,723
  1,794
  1,870
  1,949
  2,034
  2,124
  2,219
  2,319
  2,426
  2,538
  2,656
  2,781
  2,912
  3,051
  3,196
  3,349
  3,510
  3,680
  3,858
  4,046
  4,244
  4,451
  4,670
  4,898
  5,140
  5,393
  5,659
  5,939
  6,233
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.801
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -243
  -322
  -336
  -350
  -365
  -381
  -399
  -417
  -436
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -577
  -605
  -634
  -665
  -698
  -733
  -769
  -807
  -847
  -889
  -933
  -980
  -1,029
  -1,080
  -1,134
  -1,191
  -1,251
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
  333
  349
  366
  384
  403
  423
  444
  466
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -359
  -377
  -395
  -415
  -436
  -457
  -480
  -504
  -530
  -556
  -584
  -614
  -645
  -677
  -711
  -747
  -785
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  34
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -394
  -414
  -434
  -456
  -479
  -503
  -528
  -555
  -583
  -612
  -643
  -675
  -709
  -745
  -783
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -349
  -366
  -384
  -403
  -423
  -444
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -303
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -282
  -297
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -361
  -378
  -397
  -416
  -437
  -459
  -482
  -506
  -531
  -558
  -586
  -615
  -645
  -678
  -712
  -747
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  -381
  -399
  -417
  -437
  -457
  -479
  -502
  -526
  -552
  -579
  -607
  -637
  -668
  -701
  -736
  -772
  -811
  -851
  -894
  -938
  -985
  -1,034
  -1,086
  -1,140
  -1,198
  -1,258
  -1,321
  -1,387
  -1,457
  -1,530
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -35
  29
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  349
  367
  383
  401
  419
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  580
  608
  638
  670
  703
  737
  774
  812
  853
  895
  940
  987
  1,036
  1,088
  1,142
  1,199
  1,260
  1,323
  1,389
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -35
  378
  402
  421
  441
  461
  483
  507
  531
  557
  584
  612
  643
  674
  708
  743
  780
  818
  859
  902
  948
  995
  1,045
  1,097
  1,152
  1,210
  1,270
  1,333
  1,401
  1,471
  1,545
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -11
  -3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  241
  -349
  -367
  -383
  -401
  -419
  -438
  -459
  -481
  -504
  -528
  -553
  -580
  -608
  -638
  -670
  -703
  -737
  -774
  -812
  -853
  -895
  -940
  -987
  -1,036
  -1,088
  -1,142
  -1,199
  -1,260
  -1,323
  -1,389
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -346
  -363
  -380
  -397
  -415
  -434
  -454
  -476
  -498
  -522
  -548
  -574
  -602
  -632
  -663
  -695
  -729
  -766
  -804
  -844
  -885
  -930
  -976
  -1,025
  -1,076
  -1,130
  -1,186
  -1,246
  -1,308
  -1,374
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -320
  -307
  -292
  -275
  -257
  -237
  -217
  -197
  -176
  -156
  -136
  -117
  -99
  -82
  -68
  -54
  -43
  -33
  -25
  -19
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  60.1
  35.9
  21.4
  12.8
  7.6
  4.5
  2.7
  1.6
  0.9
  0.6
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

EV Energy Partners, L.P. is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas properties and all of its operations are located in the United States. The Company's oil and natural gas properties are located in the Appalachian Basin, which includes the Utica Shale; the San Juan Basin; Michigan; Central Texas, which includes the Austin Chalk area; the Mid-Continent areas in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Kansas and Louisiana; the Monroe Field in Northern Louisiana, and the Permian Basin. Its activities are concentrated in the Ohio and West Virginia areas of the Appalachian Basin. Its properties are located in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico and La Plata County in Colorado. It owns Eagle Ford oil and natural gas properties in Karnes County, including Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk reserves. It holds interest in approximately 9,150 acres in Karnes County. Its properties are located in the Antrim Shale reservoir in Otsego and Montmorency counties in northern Michigan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EV Energy Partners (EVEP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.2
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -95.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -37.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 80.1%
Total Debt to Equity 80.1%
Interest Coverage -5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -11.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Return On Total Capital -15.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Equity -27.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.7%
EBITDA Margin -46.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.3%
Operating Margin -91.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -82.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -132.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -86.1%
Net Profit Margin -131.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Payout Ratio -1.6%

EVEP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EVEP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $185 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EV Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of EV Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EVEP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for EVEP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EV Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EV Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EVEP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 248.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EVEP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.2% for EV Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EV Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EVEP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EVEP are equal to 889.2%.

Life of production assets of 13.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EV Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EVEP is equal to -7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $758 million for EV Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.333 million for EV Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EV Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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Financial statements of EVEP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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